Why Is Cape Racing A Failure?

Loopy Logic Wrote:

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> JanPunter what would be the point of "gambling' if
> It is squeaky clean?
>
> If everyone off the street that hasn't become
> streetsmart over time can just open the door and
> become competitive from the word go...?
> I for one will start losing interest very
> quickly...will start being complacent not to be on
> my toes with the challenges daily punting presents
> anymore...quite frankly I would hate racing if
> that ever happens...it's the thrill of the chase
> to perfection for me, the intricasies of getting
> it right after not only just quickly grabbing a
> racecard and looking at form to find the winner,
> but to look at the full picture, assessing the
> intent ... whether there is any value in the
> probability vs. the risk... If Cape or any racing
> would ever be that I would be bored and take on a
> new challenge...

Loopy, no disrespect bud but are you smoking some serious sh1t? You don't want the game to be cleaner just so you can challenge yourself to generate a system that copes with all the potential dishonesty? Are you saying that simple reading of form has become too easy for you? And as I said before, what about all the folks who don't have the time or the complete dedication you seem to have? That is truly one of the strangest posts I think I have ever read bud. Or am I misunderstanding? :S

JAP... enjoy the holiday mate (tu)

The WP supporters of rugby/cricket are far more loyal in supporting their teams at games than any other province in SA. ( Super 15 WP number one just about every year) The casino's in Cape are full over a weekend, end of month period. Yet not interested in horse racing. Why ? Peception of our sport or just a cultural thing ?
What I am trying to say is the public in the WP seem to like to be entertained by sport's and gambling, just not horse racing. Huge problem's to change their perception of horse racing and get them back to the track.

Human nature IMO English...not just in Cape Racing or SA , not just in Racing but any industry
all over the world IMO ...anyone could read form and if it was only about form then the favorite will win every race...and then eventually we will not have any point of Racing anymore..it will simply be too predictable...but we live in a society of "want" a society of quick gains...the human element...

the human element (Trainers/ Jockeys/ owners) wants to have an edge...for as long as we are human in nature chasing material things you will never be able to clean up Racing anywhere in the World imo, or any other industry for that matter... understand it and get the edge is what happens in every modern day society every career out there...why would Racing be any different? To what degree would you want to clean it up...to a point that it becomes so predictable there is no more interest anymore... Or a point that any newcomer could Just fall in and get rewarded from the start...does not happen in any industry...

understand human behavior in any industry in the world imo would help you gain that edge...
How many times have I said form is not even halve of the puzzle...

Every Racing venue will have form and the intent to use form..No horse can win every race..

neigh Wrote:

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> The WP supporters of rugby/cricket are far more
> loyal in supporting their teams at games than any
> other province in SA. ( Super 15 WP number one
> just about every year) The casino's in Cape are
> full over a weekend, end of month period. Yet not
> interested in horse racing. Why ? Peception of our
> sport or just a cultural thing ?
> What I am trying to say is the public in the WP
> seem to like to be entertained by sport's and
> gambling, just not horse racing. Huge problem's to
> change their perception of horse racing and get
> them back to the track.

That, Neigh, is the interesting point that racing does not seem to feel the need to address..................the perception that it is a shortage of gamblers in the Cape is wrong................when I was playing a lot of Poker on the Piggs site, the majority of players(and particularly the high rollers ) were from Cape Town!

That's all very well Loopy and clearly a somewhat realistic if pessimistic approach. But, despite that, it does not mean than the game/industry could not be hugely improved by greater transparency and by being more strictly controlled now does it? I don't think anyone believes it will ever be 100% clean but imo it can be massively improved and it amazes me you don't just say that but seem quite happy for there to be a lack of consistency and control simply because you see it as a greater riddle to be solved. Have to say, I still find it a most bizarre and confusing approach/viewpoint but it is not even 6am here so may be my mind is not fully revved up yet to appreciate what you are saying lol :S

Loopy , I never suggested that Cape racing was "CROOK" . I am saying that there are not enough meetings and that some of these meetings are poor . Durbanville for a example where 5 horses can be sctrached because of a poor draw. This does not give a punter any confidence.

I am not sure I am addressing what Loopy is saying but after studying my card I end up with some races with a group of form horses and some races where only one or two stand out on form.
I started a long time ago categorising them and measuring how reliable form is ,from different stables(including when ridden by certain jocks) etc.

I now have developed 3 categories of patterns as an extension of form study.............a)stables likely to reproduce form b) stables with about a 50/50 chance, and c) highly unlikely to reproduce the form!

Try it ...............you may be surprised!

An interesting thing is there are stables who have a reasonable strike rate ,but seldom when the form would be expected.

It adjusts the structuring of bets from a pure form assessment.

rob faux Wrote:

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> I am not sure I am addressing what Loopy is saying
> but after studying my card I end up with some
> races with a group of form horses and some races
> where only one or two stand out on form.
> I started a long time ago categorising them and
> measuring how reliable form is ,from different
> stables(including when ridden by certain jocks)
> etc.
>
> I now have developed 3 categories of patterns as
> an extension of form study.............a)stables
> likely to reproduce form b) stables with about a
> 50/50 chance, and c) highly unlikely to reproduce
> the form!
>
> Try it ...............you may be surprised!
>
> An interesting thing is there are stables who have
> a reasonable strike rate ,but seldom when the form(tu)
> would be expected.
>
> It adjusts the structuring of bets from a pure
> form assessment.


(tu) Spot on Rob, I Call it Real vs. statistical form...the ability / probability to reproduce...

and the "intent" to do so...

Titch Wrote:

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> Those "in the know' are without doubt the biggest
> losers...
> if you fancy a horse purely on form you will have
> a bet of say 100 bucks but if you fancy a horse on
> form and hear from the stable/jock/owner that the
> horse is working well and beating everything in
> work you will at the very least double your bet,
> now take into account how seldom Trainers,Jockeys
> and or Owners are right and do the maths...being
> privy to so called inside info is a very dangerous
> thing and 99% of those who are will eventually
> revert to backing on their own judgement when the
> penny drops and without exception they will be far
> more successful, being "in the know" is very very
> very overrated.


bullseye Titch....


In general gamblers prefer bigger fields for larger exotics payouts therefore cape racing with small fields is not a favourite venue for many punters. I rather bet on four horses than fourteen, it's less stressful for me.

keniza999 Wrote:

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> Titch Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > Those "in the know' are without doubt the
> biggest
> > losers...
> > if you fancy a horse purely on form you will
> have
> > a bet of say 100 bucks but if you fancy a horse
> on
> > form and hear from the stable/jock/owner that
> the
> > horse is working well and beating everything in
> > work you will at the very least double your
> bet,
> > now take into account how seldom
> Trainers,Jockeys
> > and or Owners are right and do the
> maths...being
> > privy to so called inside info is a very
> dangerous
> > thing and 99% of those who are will eventually
> > revert to backing on their own judgement when
> the
> > penny drops and without exception they will be
> far
> > more successful, being "in the know" is very
> very
> > very overrated.
>
>
> bullseye Titch....
>
>
> In general gamblers prefer bigger fields for
> larger exotics payouts therefore cape racing with
> small fields is not a favourite venue for many
> punters. I rather bet on four horses than
> fourteen, it's less stressful for me.

The problem is ,that in Cape Town,horses get boxed in ,in 4 horse fields....................lol

rob faux Wrote:

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> I am not sure I am addressing what Loopy is saying
> but after studying my card I end up with some
> races with a group of form horses and some races
> where only one or two stand out on form.
> I started a long time ago categorising them and
> measuring how reliable form is ,from different
> stables(including when ridden by certain jocks)
> etc.
>
> I now have developed 3 categories of patterns as
> an extension of form study.............a)stables
> likely to reproduce form b) stables with about a
> 50/50 chance, and c) highly unlikely to reproduce
> the form!
>
> Try it ...............you may be surprised!
>
> An interesting thing is there are stables who have
> a reasonable strike rate ,but seldom when the form
> would be expected.
>
> It adjusts the structuring of bets from a pure
> form assessment.


Now here is a black book I would like to have a peek in !!!

The Madji Wrote:

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> rob faux Wrote:
>

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> Now here is a black book I would like to have a
> peek in !!! steal... let us at least be honest about it <