July Top 20 Log 6/5/14

Scratchings so far

E-JET (Reason: Nil given - Time: 08:16 - Date: 8 May 2014 - Trainer: Sean Tarry)

FORT BELLINI (Reason: Nil given - Time: 08:16 - Date: 8 May 2014 - Trainer: Sean Tarry)

MASTER OF MY FATE (Reason: Nil given - Time: 10:45 - Date: 2 May 2014 - Trainer: Dennis Drier)

WEEKEND TEMPER (Reason: Nil given - Time: 15:48 - Date: 30 April 2014 - Trainer: Charles Laird)

The last Tripple Crown(Tiara) winner to run in the July - IGUGU(MR 109) - She faced weak opposition but still won that race - I would respect the chances of Louis and his Gauteng Brothers in this race

liquidity Wrote:

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> Got a feeling that RAKES CHESTNUT might just sneak
> into the final field and maybe that will be ANTONS
> ride.

Not sure whether you've noticed, RC hasn't stopped drifting in the market since the betting opened, 50/1, then 66/1 and now 83/1:. The bookies must know they not trying to qualify RC for the July, maybe it's too soon or he may have injured himself, but either way, they never off the mark when this sort of drift occurs. Case in point, take Beach Beauty last year, after a so called rumour that she wasn't going to run in the July, she literally blew out in the market in a matter of days, from being somewhere near the top of the boards. But don't let me put you off backing him, just something to bear in mind.

The difference in the betting from 50/1 to 83/1 is the square root of nothing

bayern Wrote:

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> liquidity Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Got a feeling that RAKES CHESTNUT might just
> sneak
> > into the final field and maybe that will be
> ANTONS
> > ride.
>
> Not sure whether you've noticed, RC hasn't stopped
> drifting in the market since the betting opened,
> 50/1, then 66/1 and now 83/1:. The bookies must
> know they not trying to qualify RC for the July,
> maybe it's too soon or he may have injured
> himself, but either way, they never off the mark
> when this sort of drift occurs. Case in point,
> take Beach Beauty last year, after a so called
> rumour that she wasn't going to run in the July,
> she literally blew out in the market in a matter
> of days, from being somewhere near the top of the
> boards. But don't let me put you off backing him,
> just something to bear in mind.

I have always thought that a July Horse must at least be graded placed to be considered - I will take a stand and say this horse talks faster than he runs as his debut win was against a very weak field. Something wrong or did not like the going next and then a good run against seasoned handicappers. Horses with far better credentials on the log and unless he wins or places in a Graded race I doubt he could get in.Not for me even if he got in

Guys, please can I have your thoughts on Whiteline Fever. I really fancy him and he is a good price at present. Looks like he is following the same route as Heavy Metal did last year. Will appreciate..

July_Mad Wrote:

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> Guys, please can I have your thoughts on Whiteline
> Fever. I really fancy him and he is a good price
> at present. Looks like he is following the same
> route as Heavy Metal did last year. Will
> appreciate..

Can the horse see out 2200m in top company ??

Best to pick a horse that will not have any stamina doubts...horses that are great over 1600-1800m get away with a lack of stamina in lower level races but get caught out when running over further at the highest level...

@TNaicker.... He ran 4th in this years J & B. Kenilworth is a much more difficult course than Greyville so IMO yes he will get the 2200.

July_Mad Wrote:

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> @TNaicker.... He ran 4th in this years J & B.
> Kenilworth is a much more difficult course than
> Greyville so IMO yes he will get the 2200.

Race time was +124 sec...Cape Derby time where Legislate beat Captain America was 0,5 sec slower...methinks that Marcus dictated pace to extent that horse placed 4th (Whiteline Fever) and horse placed 16th (Awesome Power) were within 3,5 lengths of each other...such a "cramped" finishing order would indicate a false pace allowing horses with lesser ability to be competitive with better horses over that distance...

Anyway, far from me to try to sway you...all the best in your selections and may the best horse on the day win...

July_Mad Wrote:

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> @TNaicker.... He ran 4th in this years J & B.
> Kenilworth is a much more difficult course than
> Greyville so IMO yes he will get the 2200.


July Mad, he is very consistent and always gives of his best and usually finishes just off them. He doesn't however seem to be as good as the very top horses. Could well run a place but I would be surprised to see him win.

shrek Wrote:

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> July_Mad Wrote:
>

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>

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> > @TNaicker.... He ran 4th in this years J & B.
> > Kenilworth is a much more difficult course than
> > Greyville so IMO yes he will get the 2200.
>
>
> July Mad, he is very consistent and always gives
> of his best and usually finishes just off them. He
> doesn't however seem to be as good as the very top
> horses. Could well run a place but I would be
> surprised to see him win.


Also he has been on the go from the Cape Season in the summer, through the Gauteng season in autumn, not sure how much left in the tank for the KZN winter season - of the Tarry runners, I'd be leaning towards Halve the Deficit (depending on how he runs in the '1900') and Pomodoro (on the come-back trail and not disgraced behind Yorker last time)

I just have a feeling that this horse will go very close in the JULY. If i had to scrutinise everything on paper he wouldnt be my first choice but horses dont run on paper. I feel the course will suit him to the ground and i am of the opinion that Tarry is keeping him on the highveld like he did with Heavy Metal for a reason. I will just take my chance as thats what depicts the magic of the JULY. Cant get hurt on the current price.