Kenilworth Saturday

Sommerlied x Arabian Dynasty. Think both will start much closer to evens or in the red

Leaning the same ML.

Guys, going to disagree with Sommerlied as there are plenty with chances here. This would be Sommerlied's acid test, taking on some hard hitters who have faced stronger opposition than this. Sommerlied received a stiff penalty for her last win. I would certainly price up Twinkle Toes shorter than Sommerlied in the market, unbeaten over the distance and down in class. Sommerlied may yet win, but certainly no good thing, not an odds on shot anyway.

bayern wrote: Guys, going to disagree with Sommerlied as there are plenty with chances here. This would be Sommerlied's acid test, taking on some hard hitters who have faced stronger opposition than this. Sommerlied received a stiff penalty for her last win. I would certainly price up Twinkle Toes shorter than Sommerlied in the market, unbeaten over the distance and down in class. Sommerlied may yet win, but certainly no good thing, not an odds on shot anyway.

S............13/10
TT............6/1.................. :ohmy:

Countrymember wrote:

bayern wrote: Guys, going to disagree with Sommerlied as there are plenty with chances here. This would be Sommerlied's acid test, taking on some hard hitters who have faced stronger opposition than this. Sommerlied received a stiff penalty for her last win. I would certainly price up Twinkle Toes shorter than Sommerlied in the market, unbeaten over the distance and down in class. Sommerlied may yet win, but certainly no good thing, not an odds on shot anyway.

S............13/10
TT............6/1.................. :ohmy:

Therein lies the value, Twinkle Toes that is. If you can get 6/1 TT, take it, trust me on this. Look at the race again, you'd probably make an argument for the entire field. For me, it's the sort of race where money will come for quite a few, and the winner may not be any of the top 4 or 5 in the betting.

Price up yourself and see if you make Sommerlied a 13/10 shot. If you really fancy Sommerlied, what until race, it should start much bigger than 13/10. I hope it arrives for you, but be patient.

For what it's worth, who has 6/1 about Twinkle Toes?

Hi Bayern,
I don't really fancy Sommerlied. I thought I would tell you there was 6/1 and 12/10 a place your fancy. These prices are still available with WSB. Just from a personal perspective I would also rather back Snaith in CT...

Good punting and keep up your good work (analysis)......Cheers.....

Race 2. Barrack Street is a half brother to the stallion and International Group One Winner Jay Peg

I see the bookies have started to open up the baby races early

My punt for the day, R6, Party Crasher (5/1 or 7/1, depending where you bet).

Looking at the betting, Kryptonite is the 3/1 favourite, she tends to race handy, however I think she has it all to do from stall 10. She also concedes 4.5kgs to Party Crasher.

Primrose Lane, joint second favourite at 33/10. If she stays the extra, I make her the biggest danger to my fancy, however this is her first attempt beyond 1100m and she is conceding 4.0kgs to Party Crasher.

The other joint second favourite, Wake Up Maggie, 33/10 as well, similar record to Primrose Lane, this is her first attempt beyond 1200m and her merit rating was also achieved over the sprint distances. Since turning three, she hasn't really reproduced that early juvenile form, so I'd watch this run to see how she goes, she must concede 3.0kgs to Party Crasher.

Party Crasher, you can put a line through her last run, something clearly amiss. Her run post maiden was relatively good considering she was the second lowest rated horse in the race and was badly out at the weights. Her finishing distance of 1.40 lengths was full of merit, and she appeared to be finishing strongly over the 1200m. Her maiden win over 1200m, whilst there have been no winners from that race, what is encouraging is she also appeared to quicken well from 400 to finish, so I think she should have no problems getting the extra 200m, especially in receipt of weight from the immediate market rivals.

Good punting.

As much as I like Carry On Alice, I fail to see how she can be 1/1 compared to the 5/2 if Real Princess. I am sure she will be in need of the run whereas Real Princess ran a cracking comeback run behind Search Party. Will strip the fitter of the two and I rate her the one to beat.

I also really fancy Sommerlied and Arabian Dynasty and have played a patent on these three.

Looks a nice card, play well.

Captains Dove, albeit a different track, was beaten 2.25 lengths by Twinkle Toes last time out and is 5.5 kg's better off. The unfashionable jock is probably the reason for the big price (and she is well tried) ..... but at 14's she gets a few of my pennies and goes into Patents. Very difficult race though. The other lurker I fancy is Nordic Speed dropping back in distance, possible peak run. Was hoping to see blinker strike

Race 4, Handicap; LE HAVRE
Race 7, Handicap; SOMMERLIED
Race 8, Southern Cross; CARRY ON ALICE

Prosperous punting

CARRY ON ALICE is contemptuous in the Computaform Sprint: