Very interesting that 47 of the 130 carded runners is bred on either of my fav 2 bloodlines .its just amazing , when the "better" horses are running , this 2 lines always jumps out . Another very interesting 2 facts is that these 2 bloodlines you will find in 22 of the 58 July nominees (38%) and out of the current top 100 stake earners this season you will find 46% with these lines!!!!!!! So when i post "bloodlines" under each race its these horses that have one of these 2 lines. Its very helpful, especially if you struggle to find some roughies to include. Just this last week some big odds winners popped up, 30/1 , 25/1 , 30/1 and 36/1 and for 2nd places, some 12/1 , 14/1, 36/1 , 11/1 , 50/1 and 25/1 .... and thats out of 124 runners past 8 meetings .
Race 1
Bloodlines nr 1 and 4
Im still trying to figure out why all the hype about UNAGI ? Missed first 3 placings all 7 times on this track , for me overrated at 94 !!! He earned that when winning a 3yo handicap 3 runs back IN A FALSE RUN RACE . He was left to dictate from inside draw , a very slow pace and skip clear in short straight to make it a sprint. His time compring to other 4 1600m races that day confirms it. 76fm handicap and normal 72 handicap was quicker, he would have beaten the maiden field with just over a lenght and the fillies maiden also with less than 2 lenghts . His GtGns and SACls runs were both around 90/91 in my opinion. He is an honest horse but the handicapper got the better of him . He and BANKABLE TEDDY met once and if you consider wfa differances then and now and weight turnaround then their is nothing inbetween them .... Unagi is 16/10 and BT 20/1 .....where do you see the value????? BT can upset if im wrong about Unagi's rating.
If im not wrong about Unagi's rating then they all have to beat CASHIN!!!!! Really nicely priced at 11/1 . Ignore last run when it was also a false pace. On the upgrade and i think still a little ahead of the handicapper.
Unagi jumps from draw 5/7 and will be forced to commit to have any chance and that will suit CASHIN to the tee.
King archer also is honest sort but also need to drop a few points to win. Ignore BANKABLE TEDDY's last 3 runs ...all 3 been in the soft/wet going. He have his 2nd run after a rest and gelding and if this was 200m further i would have been very cofident . He dropped well in the ratings in last 3 starts....
My selections
CASHIN X BANKEBLE TEDDY X KING ARCHER X UNAGI
Race 2
Bloodlines 1 5 6 7
Open looking handicap and the one i like alot and who represent great value is ARAMOUSE at 16/1.have a low weight, will sit handy and pounce and eachway bet suggested.
Bipot 7 5 3 2
Race 3
Bloodlines 1 2 3 6 7 8 9 10 13
When a horse 2,5kg under sufferance in a handicap Gr 3 race is fav you must know its wide open and anything can happen.wont suggest any bet and even in PA and Bibot I have 10 horses. Interisting that 9 of the 14 runners have ideal bloodlines...
Pa and bipot nrs 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12
Race 4
Bloodlines 2 4 7 8
Its either the expensive MUSTAAQEEM or go wide . I will bank him in bipot and pa and pick 6 go wider.
Bipot 6
Pa 6
Pick 6 nr 2 3 5 6 7 8 10 or banker 6
Race 5
Bloodlines 1 2 4 5 9 10 11
KISSABLE is the best in the race but that last run is major concern...will bank her in bipot and go wider in pa and pick 6
Bipot 6
Pa 1 5 6 11
Pick 6 nr 1 5 6 9 11
Race 6
Bloodlines 1 3 5 9 10
Great race awaits . ORIENTAL OAK at 5/1 is value and eachway bet suggested. Full sister to nightinggale is bred to stay . Unlucky in fillies classic not to win when flying at them . I will bank her in pa and will even consider banking her in pick 6
Pa 5
Bipot 1 3 4 5 8
Pick 6 nr 1 3 4 5 8 or banker 5
Race 7
Bloodlines 1 2 4
Its HEAVENLY EXPRESS and PAGODA showdown if its a true run race. Add 2 and 3 if you want to go wider
Pa 1 4
Bipot 1 4
Pick 6 nr 1 4
Race 8
Bloodlines 8 13
Its the CARRY ON ALICE show today. Big price at 3/1 and banker in everything . Have a bet. Superstar mare.
Race 9
Bloodlines nun
Legal eagle against improving brazuca.... legal eagle is the champion !!!!!
Race 10
Bloodlines 1 9 11
POLYTHONIC will be hard to beat. Only add trophy wife and Al Hawraa.
Race 11
Bloodlines 4 6 7
Race 12
Bloodlines 2 7 8 11 12
Didnt study last 2 races .
Another pick 6 to try:
2 4 7 8 6
1 2 4 5 9 10 11 6
1 3 5 9 10 4 8
1 2 4
8 13
1 4
All the best
Last edit: 8 years 3 months ago by Zietsman Oosthuizen.
The following user(s) said Thank You: CnC 306, Sweet Coetzee
Race 1 - Unagi was found wanting over the 1800m, today's trip hunky dory
Race 2 - Mombela loves this CD , last run blew away the cobwebs
Race 3 - Smart Mart, not the greatest Gold Bowl and it's wide open, but least we know Smart Mart is in decent form and stays
Race 4 - Barrack Street carries the best form into the race imo, up against a couple Of unexposed types today but 11/2 looks a fair bet
Race 5- Kissable, forgive her poor run( valid excuses)
Race 6- Smiling Blue Eyes , giving her another chance today
Race 7 - Heavenly Blue wins if he stays
Race 8- Carry On Alice, very hard to beat over 1000m
Race 9- Legal Eagle Blah Blah
Rocketball
Just As I Said
Savage Wind
Barrack Street
Fancifilly
Wind Chill
Pagoda
Doing It For Dan
Nother Russia
Girl On The Run
Neuf De Pape
Easy Game
Bold Viking
Mombela
Let It Rain/Supertube
Mustaqueem
Twelve Oaks/Fish River
Belle Rose/Smiling Blue Eyes
Heavenly Blue/Pagoda
Carry on Alice
Legal Eagle
Polyphonic/Trophy Wife/Al Hawraa
Sylvan Saint/Starret City/West Coast Warrior
Green Pepper/Exquisite Touch
I don't think this is an easy card.
The first two are tricky handicaps. The 3rd has many horses whose current form or fitness is suspect, but have the ability to pop up.
The baby races are always tricky because they can improve radically from race to race.
The Oaks will be decided by which one stays the best and who knows if a decent pace.
Heavenly Blue stands out in the Derby, if he stays.
Trip to Heaven wins if he jumps on terms, but COA is a tough nut to crack, and there are a few on the upgrade that could surprise. Traffic problems in a big field are common.
Legal Eagle a banker.
Trophy Wife is the one to beat, but Polyphonic and Heaps of Fun are close to her at best.
Silvan Saint is progressive but hasn't yet shown enough to get too excited.
Exquisite Touch looks the right one, but can't write off Green Pepper.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Magi, thisotherdude
Topic Author
