Durban July Log

A caveat - the "1900" was a false run race.

Shrek, for 4yos and 5yos it should be on pure form.

but for most 3yos the potential to grow is still there - that's why I think we have to pay attention to what trainers, jockeys say as well as reading form. Besides half the July hype is whether the 3yos are good enough every year.

MOMF, how do you gauge future potential? If there are 10 three year olds that have not done much but have the potential, who do you put in the July field and who do you leave out?

shrek wrote:

MasterOfMyFate wrote: ^ and wasn't it justified? He ran 3rd.

I'm sure Black Arthur will show why he's so highly rated in the Cup Trial. He's a fantastic horse at his best.

He did justify it but do you pick the July field on talk and future potential or what they have shown to date?

I believe Black Arthur is a serious contender for the July.

I have always rated black Arthur as a good horse but has disappointed of late. I think his true potential will shown soon.

Frodo wrote:

mr hawaii wrote:

Frodo wrote: Delpech has been declared to ride Bela Bela in the Gold Challenge and Black Arthur in the Cup Trial (seemingly deserting Elusive Silva) - this could prove significant, as BA will have to win this to get into the July - seeing that on the current log he is not in the top 25 :ohmy:

What about Al Saheem? Or as it was pointed out to me before if any Slack horse gets in will Delpech have to ride that first? My money is on Big Al if he comes through the Daily News well(he does not even have to win - Remember Pomodoro did not win the DN) then I think Delpech will be glued to his saddle for the July.

Every year the 'July' question is whether the 3 yr olds are good enough at the allocated weights to trouble the older horses - some years they are, other years not - last year they were not - and no clear indication whether they will be good enough this year. Seeing that Delpech seemingly prefers Black Arthur from the Snaith runners, it would be interesting to know his preference between Al Sahem and Black Arthur

I recall the interview with Mr Tarry - He had a glint in his eye when talking about Al and said the moment the horse got off the float they knew they had something good there - But last year I was all about the 3yr olds as they had shown well against elders - New Predator won the Drill Hall and the highest rated horse(NP) in the Daily News was 110 (NP). There were 10 horses rated over 100 in that field (Al Sahem is 106 while Samaurai Blade was 108 last year and I don't think Tarry would think that SB is near as talented as AS) This year there are only 4 rated higher than 100 as the 2 that would have top ratings are either retired to stud or missing in action(Gold Standard)
I think that Al Sahem is better than his current rating so I'll keep on him but I have healthy respect for It's My Turn who is my choice of the older crop.

It"s my turn will finish in front of black Arthur, thats what i think based on previous races where they both ran together....should they both make the final field, the important thing is going to be the jockey booking for IT'S My Turn, I prefer Striker or B FAYD'HERBE to ride... they suit the horse... , when it is said that punters are mugs, i think we are guilty of it most of the time, considering that we always change our selections even if we believe that our selection will win, we change it to something else after maybe hearing what the jockey or trainer says....and how many times this information was wrong. i refer to It's my turn... most of the times when it ran with other snaith runners, it was the least prefer by all and sundry even the trainer...., but it finished better that the other snaith runners.....Snaith does not give his preferences of his horses anymore, as he said many times he was wrong and abused for it, and rightly so....because punters go on what the trainers say... and most of the time we loose a lot of money....

I dont think Al Sahem will go full out to win.....he will incur a penalty and i dont think the connections want that. I think will run a credible race, but not win and try and fly in under the radar and still remain under-rated by the handicapper

PeeKay wrote: I dont think Al Sahem will go full out to win.....he will incur a penalty and i dont think the connections want that. I think will run a credible race, but not win and try and fly in under the radar and still remain under-rated by the handicapper

Then what is your selection Mr P?

Is there another Log due?

I have been waiting for the new log for a long time. New one out tomorrow I think

The next log will be out tomorrow.

The final Vodacom Durban July log will be published by Tuesday 6 June and the big race fever is likely to rise a good few degrees as we enter the final straight, with only the Gr1 Gold Challenge, the Gr3 Cup Trial and the Gr3 Jubilee Handicap left to impress the panel.

 2016 Cape Derby winner It’s My Turn – hasn’t won in ages but impressed last time
The Gold Challenge is run at Greyville this Saturday and is a July golden ticket for the winner, while the Cup Trial and Jubilee (the latter run on Sunday 11 June at Turffontein) are preferred inclusion pointers.

Scratchings and a great weekend’s racing at Greyville last Saturday have changed the complexion of the July log dramatically.

 Horizon – was well beaten in Daily News
Candice Bass-Robinson’s Horizon probably fared best of the five runners not in the original July log top 25 to have run on Saturday. The son of Dynasty had every chance and was a well beaten 3,50 length third behind Edict Of Nantes and Al Sahem in the Daily News.

Copper Force (5,50 lengths ) did not appear to stay and a tailed off Africa Rising ran in the same race and failed to impress.

 Smiling Blue Eyes – looks an unlikely July starter after Saturday

Gr2 Gauteng Fillies Guineas winner Smiling Blue Eyes failed to show in the Woolavington, finishing 6,60 lengths behind Lady Of The House. She does not appear to have recovered from a virus that hit the Tarry yard earlier this year.

The Gr3 Chairman’s Cup winner Banner Hill carried joint top weight in the Gr3 Lonsdale Stirrup Cup and failed to reproduce his customary kick, running seventh and 2,60 lengths behind Captain Splendid. He looks a more suitable candidate for the Gr3 Gold Vase run over 3000m on July day.

2017 Vodacom Durban July

The July log is likely to show some dramatic changes and our notebook below (with first log positions shown) sketches some observations.

Post a comment and tell us what you think!

1 – Deo Juvente

Has been scratched.

 Al Sahem – second best on Saturday

2 – Al Sahem

Has already won an automatic qualifier in the Gr1 SA Derby and was beaten a half length into second in the Daily News by Edict Of Nantes last Saturday. Switches to Mike de Kock for next season in Dubai.


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3 – Heavenly Blue

Has been scratched

4 – Master Sabina

Has already won an automatic qualifier in the Gr1 Sansui Summer Cup. He was beaten 3,75 lengths into fifth in the Gr1 Premier’s Champions Challenge last time. A fairly lightly raced 7yo, he has changed stables to Justin Snaith.

5 – Orchid Island

Has already won an automatic qualifier in the Gr1 SA Fillies Classic. She stayed on steadily for a 2,35 length fourth behind Lady Of The House in the Gr1 Woolavington 2000 last Saturday.

 Edict Of Nantes – very impressive!

6 – Edict Of Nantes

Has already won two qualifiers in the Gr1 Investec Cape Derby and Saturday’s Gr1 Daily News 2000. Looks a likely new favourite.

7 – Marinaresco

Gr1 Champions Cup winner of last term. Atoned for a host of ‘disappointing’ Cape Summer Season showings with a storming win in the Gr2 Drill Hall Stakes last time.

8 – Captain America

Ran a cracker in the Drill Hall Stakes when under a half length back in fifth. Good efforts in Green Point Stakes, Queen’s Plate and Met sees him return for his second tilt at July after well beaten behind Legislate as a 3yo back in 2014.

9 – Bela-Bela

Dual Gr1 winner, finished sixth and 2,65 lengths behind The Conglomerate as a 3yo in the 2016 July. Recent SA Fillies Sprint prep was respectable. Participation depends on things going her way.

 French Navy – dual Gr1 winner

10 – French Navy

Dual Gr1 winner but has not won since January 2016. Gr2 and two Gr1 placings at his last three starts hint at timeous form return.

11 – The Conglomerate

Last year’s winner. Ran second behind Master Sabina in Sansui Summer Cup at only show in six starts this term.

12 – Brazuca

Multiple Gr1 placer and won Gr2 Colorado King Stakes at penultimate start. Beaten 4,50 lengths by Deo Juvente in Premier’s Champions Challenge last start.

13 – Krambambuli

Won the Gr2 Cape Stayers at his penultimate start and followed up with a smooth win in the NBT Highland Night Cup last time.

14 – Saratoga Dancer

Has not won a race since November 2015. Finished fifth behind The Conglomerate in 2016 July. Ran a cracker when beaten a head into third in the Gr2 Drill Hall Stakes last time.

 Pagoda – should we write him off?

15 – Pagoda

Won Derby Trial and then runner-up to Al Sahem in SA Derby at penultimate. Was a well beaten 6, 50 lengths behind Edict Of Nantes in Daily News on Saturday.

16 – Elusive Silva

Won Gr3 Winter Derby last term and returned from a ten month break to win Listed Sledgehammer at penultimate start. Flat-footed when beaten 3,25 lengths in receipt of 2kgs from Ten Gun Salute in Gr2 Betting World 1900 last time.

17 – Nightingale

Won Gr1 Majorca Stakes at penultimate start. Was 3,60 lengths back in prep run at Scottsville in a too short Gr3 Poinsettia Stakes sprint last time.

18 – It’s My Turn

Winless since Gr1 Investec Cape Derby 18 months ago. Stakes placed as a 4yo and finished well to dead-heat with Mr Winsome for third 2 lengths off Ten Gun Salute (who received 2kgs from him) in Betting World 1900.

Zodiac Ruler Zodiac Ruler – failed to impress

19 – Zodiac Ruler

Gr2 winner as a 2yo. Has never won at 3. Finished unplaced 6,75 lengths behind Edict Of Nantes in Gr1 Daily News 2000 on Saturday

20 – Master Switch

Ran third in Gr1 Sansui Summer Cup. Poor effort in Betting World 1900. Has won an MR 104 Handicap at best.

The next 5 in alphabetical order:

Girl On The Run

Gr3 winner at best. Ran second to Polyphonic in the Gr2 Gerald Rosenberg Stakes before first log published.

Liege

Gr3 winner at best. Has not run for six months, when fourth to Master Sabina in Gr1 Sansui Summer Cup.

Prince Of Wales

Has been scratched

 Safe Harbour – all heart and honest as day is long

Safe Harbour

Multiple Gr1 winner. Ran on well for a 1,60 length third behind Lady Of The House in the Gr1 Woolavington last Saturday.

Silver Mountain

Cape Fillies Guineas winner – has not won a race since December 2015. Recent prep was uninspiring.

There is still some water to flow under the bridge with Final Supplementary Entries closing at 11h00 on Monday, 12 June.

Other key dates:

Weights Published: Tuesday, 13 June

Final Declaration: Close 11h00 Monday, 19 June

Announcement of the Final Field and Barrier Draws will take place on Tuesday, 20 June

Public Gallops: 07h00 at Greyville Racecourse, Thursday, 22 June