Latest Durban July Log

Neptune wrote:

Frodo wrote: Up to the horses and Lady Luck - one will get in, the other one probably won't - for me on exposed form there is no way that ES can beat BA at the weights

Oops...ES will only improve on that run in the next 3 weeks....

Yip I was wrong, not the first time and unfortunately it won't be the last

I don't know what to make of the Cup Trial .... one can rate the race in one of two ways .... either you believe that Crowd Pleaser has improved (not impossible being a 3 yr old) and that he ran about 5 points above his rating (which did seem high to start) .. that would mean that most other runners ran to their ratings, except for the winner and Black Arthur who ran above their ratings at 103 and 107 respectively

Or one could take the standpoint that CP ran to his rating of 91 - which would mean that most other runners ran around 8 points below their ratings and that Elusive Silva ran to 95 and BA to 99 - which also seems reasonable as I had ES at 94 and BA at 104 before the race

It will of course be be important to find out what the handicapper makes of this race - using the first scenario surely it would bring BA into the July at 55.5 kgs and ES at 53.5 (assuming Captain America stands his ground and keep his rating of 116); using the 2nd scenario it would mean that both BA and ES would (if they make the final field) come into the July under sufferance.

They will probably split the difference and keep ES at 99 and BA at 103 - which would mean that (if they make the field) BA would come in at 53.5 and ES at 53 (which would be 1.5 kgs under sufferance)

I'm waiting to see what the handicapper and the panel does ....

I see three jockeys have been declared for the July 2017.

Elusive Silva - R Fourie
Black Arthur - G van Niekerk
Its My Turn - P Strydom

wow striker on It's My Turn, as i hoped for , i think the perfect combination!!!!!!!, cant wait for the Race.... over bar the shouting

Mr Winsome supplemented

So Bela Bela won't be running - surely that frees up one space for Black Arthur?

As much as people are willing and wishing Black Arthur into the race, it's hard to make a convincing argument as to why it should have leapfrogged its way up the log.

ruffian wrote: As much as people are willing and wishing Black Arthur into the race, it's hard to make a convincing argument as to why it should have leapfrogged its way up the log.

What have Pagoda and Tilbury Fort off a net 97 and 96 done to be in the top 18? They have been beaten by the top 3 year colts every time they have raced them. Why will the July be any different?

Wouldn't it be fun if Legal Eagle was supplemented today

black arthur won the kzn guinneas a gr2 last season.was also 1 of the favs last year for the july.
i can think of a few horses who have won nothing of note and run in poor quality races,but they are on the log.the mind boggles.

shrek wrote:

ruffian wrote: As much as people are willing and wishing Black Arthur into the race, it's hard to make a convincing argument as to why it should have leapfrogged its way up the log.

What have Pagoda and Tilbury Fort off a net 97 and 96 done to be in the top 18? They have been beaten by the top 3 year colts every time they have raced them. Why will the July be any different?

I am not arguing with that logic. My point is this :
He wasn't in the top 25 on the last published log, probably unjustly so, but nonetheless he has not done enough since then to warrant a turnaround.

shrek wrote:
ruffian wrote:
As much as people are willing and wishing Black Arthur into the race, it's hard to make a convincing argument as to why it should have leapfrogged its way up the log.

What have Pagoda and Tilbury Fort off a net 97 and 96 done to be in the top 18? They have been beaten by the top 3 year colts every time they have raced them. Why will the July be any different?

I am not arguing with that logic. My point is this :
He wasn't in the top 25 on the last published log, probably unjustly so, but nonetheless he has not done enough since then to warrant a turnaround.

and It's My Turn will finish in front of BA again

ruffian wrote:

shrek wrote:

ruffian wrote: As much as people are willing and wishing Black Arthur into the race, it's hard to make a convincing argument as to why it should have leapfrogged its way up the log.

What have Pagoda and Tilbury Fort off a net 97 and 96 done to be in the top 18? They have been beaten by the top 3 year colts every time they have raced them. Why will the July be any different?

I am not arguing with that logic. My point is this :
He wasn't in the top 25 on the last published log, probably unjustly so, but nonetheless he has not done enough since then to warrant a turnaround.

I agree with you that he might fall just short based on being out of the Top 25. This is shaping up to be one of the weakest fields we have seen for a while.

It is going to be interesting to see who is in and out when the final field is announced.