Durban July Final Field

I think we can all agree that with the only gripe being that Horizon didn't make the final field it is a pretty fair field. The Bass stable still have 2 lively entries so I am sure they are pretty satisfied.

winzip wrote: I have to agree with pirates about the strength of this years field.It is very weak and i can just about scratch 10 horses who have no chance of making the top 6 in this race,unless they are doped.The truth is that certain horses have no chance,but black arthur has a huge chance carrying 54.5kgs,in the july.

WinZip, I am sure we would all be interested to know which are the 10 that you feel have no chance of making the top 6?

How does Tilbury Fort get in ahead of Nebula? That's a complete and utter joke.

Poncey wrote: How does Tilbury Fort get in ahead of Nebula? That's a complete and utter joke.

Nebula was one of my early fancies.

Shrek - Its also because July used to be the richest race in the year, but if not mistaken the Met is now the richest, so as you say with the conditions it makes more sense for the horses to be aimed at the Met.

Saint Tropez wrote: Edict of Nantes from Nightingale

Nightingale 1st for me...and a mad scramble for the other places...

pirates wrote: the biggest tragedy is the july is not attracting the best horses in the country and when you consider that the first 4 in the met whisky baron legal eagle capt usa gold standard plus mother russia deo juvente and also the cape guineas winner of marshalls are missing and you look back at the season and see what these horses i have mentioned have achieved then questions need to be asked, as if you put all of these in the july which used to be the case for many years it was a proper race unlike this race which without al sahem and edict of nantes is about the same strength of july consolation races of years gone by..

Spot on! What a July field that would have been and that's why I made the point earlier on... This is a field that fails to excite me...

considering all that has been said, i like to add my 2c worth...
1. the more open the July is the better the dividends going to be
2. every horse i feel has an equal chance of either winning or running a place, i don't think any horse stands out, which is good in the sense that every one will be shouting for a different horse here
3. as for the once a year punter, they want to win lots of money, so if all the favourite horses has to fill the first 4 spots, they will not make as much..
4. i think that the cape horses... previous races has shown... will dominate the first 6 positions.
5. when Snaith says that a particular horse is doing well, etc....please back the other.... have been there and done that previously.., i dont think they even know which is the better horse

My take on the race is as follows:

It is Edict Of Nantes and Al Sahem's race to lose. They both look classy and with luck in running should both be in the shake up. They have beaten the other 3 year old's enough times to so I can't see another 3 year old winning the race.

For the older horses the only one out of the top 7 I give a chance to is Marinaresco as he is classy but I still think he will battle to give 6 kg's plus to the two 3 year old's. It's My Turn has a master aboard and seems to be coming along the right way. He looks a big runner.

I am not convinced that either Ten Gun Salute or Nightingale have what it takes to win this so I am brassing them.

If Black Arthur can run as fast as the talk is about him it is race over. Off 1 kg less than he carried to a creditable 7th last year he should be there at the business end.

Mr Winsome carries a light weight for an improving 4 year old and is bang in form. If there is no pace he will battle to catch them, if there is a decent pace expect him to be picking them off at the finish. He is my best place bet at 42/10 on Betxchange.

Elusive Silva has also done nothing wrong in this campaign and is another older horse with a light weight. He should also be right there at the finish.

My prediction for order of finish is:
13 Al Sahem
12 Edict Of Nantes
14 Mr Winsome
11 Black Arthur
15 Elusive Silva
8 It's My Turn

MJ Byleveld booked for Master Sabina

yes winzip who will be yor final 6??

the race will be dominated by the cape runners.i have ignored both kzn runners and most of the jhb runners.only jhb horse who has a chance to make top 6 is al sahem and i only give him a chance because his trainer seems to have the 'magic touch' with his horses.
my top 6 is

1 its my turn cape derby winner.carrying same weight as last yr wen 4th at 3,striker up.
2 black arthur big chance,nice weight,good pilot and stable fancies.
3 edict of nantes cape derby winner.very strong pointer to july winners.an ok jock
4 marinaresco best horse in the race,big weight,strong jock.will be right there.
5 elusive silva nice weight,top cape rider,has a chance.
6 al sahem wouldn't surprise me if he won,magic trainer who scares me in any race.

only nightingale,and mr winsome could possibly trouble the top 6 spots,the rest only making up the numbers and making the bookies a fortune,