Durban July Final Field

avataar
Premium Member
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Re: Durban July Final Field

8 years 2 months ago - 8 years 2 months ago

winzip wrote: the race will be dominated by the cape runners.i have ignored both kzn runners and most of the jhb runners.only jhb horse who has a chance to make top 6 is al sahem and i only give him a chance because his trainer seems to have the 'magic touch' with his horses.
my top 6 is

1 its my turn cape derby winner.carrying same weight as last yr wen 4th at 3,striker up.
2 black arthur big chance,nice weight,good pilot and stable fancies.
3 edict of nantes cape derby winner.very strong pointer to july winners.an ok jock
4 marinaresco best horse in the race,big weight,strong jock.will be right there.
5 elusive silva nice weight,top cape rider,has a chance.
6 al sahem wouldn't surprise me if he won,magic trainer who scares me in any race.

only nightingale,and mr winsome could possibly trouble the top 6 spots,the rest only making up the numbers and making the bookies a fortune,

WZ , I also agree that the race will be dominated by the cape runners this year, just to point out WZ that with your choices, you have favoured all the Silvano babies that are carded to run, the only one left out is the reserve runner..Nebula. It counld be just co - incidence , but I strongly think that you are spot on. Just opened the card this morning and that was also my first thought after seeing that Silvano is strongly represented here. the other 2 It's my turn(Dynasty) and Edict of Nantes(Count DuBois)

1 its my turn ran well last year, very good prep, carrying a good weight and , the biggest asset is striker. considering we don't know what the pace is going to be like.
2. Mr Winsome ran well in the BW1900, won the DERBY, trainer that knows how to win the July, also depends on the pace, well drawn
3 marinaresco best horse in the race,big weight,strong jock.will be right there. will be better placed this time , with a better draw, chance
4 elusive silva nice weight,top cape rider,has a chance.(Co - owned by Johno Snaith)
5 edict of nantes cape derby winner.trainer in very good form,
6. The conglomerate, good draw, only 1/2 kilo more weight than it carried last year, has a chance to finish in the top 4
Al Sahem/nightingale small chance, because of breeding, will not leave out of quartet...

Last edit: 8 years 2 months ago by avataar. Reason: wrong info

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Frodo
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Re: Durban July Final Field

8 years 2 months ago

#677332

For all the Black Arthur nay-sayers .... is there any reason why he should not at least repeat his run in the July last year .... because if he does, he has all of those that ran last year stone cold at the weights

So the betting currently correct imo ..

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avataar
Premium Member
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Re: Durban July Final Field

8 years 2 months ago

#677336

i am sure Black Arthur will at least repeat his last years run, so will the others......and the weight turnaround is not that great, not like Black Arthur was beaten a neck/head....its my take and i am putting my money where my mouth is ....

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Form Fundi
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Re: Durban July Final Field

8 years 2 months ago

#677341

shrek wrote: My take on the race is as follows:

It is Edict Of Nantes and Al Sahem's race to lose. They both look classy and with luck in running should both be in the shake up. They have beaten the other 3 year old's enough times to so I can't see another 3 year old winning the race.

For the older horses the only one out of the top 7 I give a chance to is Marinaresco as he is classy but I still think he will battle to give 6 kg's plus to the two 3 year old's. It's My Turn has a master aboard and seems to be coming along the right way. He looks a big runner.

I am not convinced that either Ten Gun Salute or Nightingale have what it takes to win this so I am brassing them.

If Black Arthur can run as fast as the talk is about him it is race over. Off 1 kg less than he carried to a creditable 7th last year he should be there at the business end.

Mr Winsome carries a light weight for an improving 4 year old and is bang in form. If there is no pace he will battle to catch them, if there is a decent pace expect him to be picking them off at the finish. He is my best place bet at 42/10 on Betxchange.

Elusive Silva has also done nothing wrong in this campaign and is another older horse with a light weight. He should also be right there at the finish.

My prediction for order of finish is:
13 Al Sahem
12 Edict Of Nantes
14 Mr Winsome
11 Black Arthur
15 Elusive Silva
8 It's My Turn

Anyway to judge the strength of this years crop of 3yr olds.

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shrek
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Re: Durban July Final Field

8 years 2 months ago

#677347

avataar wrote: i am sure Black Arthur will at least repeat his last years run, so will the others......and the weight turnaround is not that great, not like Black Arthur was beaten a neck/head....its my take and i am putting my money where my mouth is ....

THE CONGLOMERATE 02Jul16 GRY G JulyA 2200 A 101 P Strydom 55.5 18-18 25/1 20/1 5 3.7 4 2.4 1 0.25 *Marinaresco 55.5 133.50 24.4 55.5 0.0 56 0.0 3 1.14
MARINARESCO 02Jul16 GRY G JulyA 2200 AB 101 G van Niekerk 55.5 17-18 7/1 16/1 18 10.8 17 7.9 2 0.25 The Conglomerate 55.5 133.50 23.4 55.5 2.0 60 0.0 7 3.61
IT’S MY TURN 02Jul16 GRY G JulyA 2200 A 105 R Fourie 55.5 12-18 12/1 15/2 3 2.3 3 1.7 4 2.35 The Conglomerate 55.5 133.50 24.9 55.5 2.0 55.5 0.0 2 0.71
SARATOGA DANCER 02Jul16 GRY G JulyA 2200 A 95 C Zackey 55.5 16-18 40/1 70/1 17 10.8 18 8.0 5 2.40 The Conglomerate 55.5 133.50 23.8 55.5 0.0 56 0.0 6 3.54
BLACK ARTHUR 02Jul16 GRY G JulyA 2200 A 106 D Whyte 55.5 15-18 11/2 10/1 11 7.5 10 4.9 7 2.75 The Conglomerate 55.5 133.50 24.4 55.5 2.0 54.5 0.0 1 0.00
TEN GUN SALUTE 02Jul16 GRY G JulyA 2200 A 102 M Yeni 55.5 9-18 20/1 22/1 2 1.8 2 1.4 8 3.25 The Conglomerate 55.5 133.50 25.1 55.5 2.0 55.5 0.0 4 1.61
MASTER SABINA 02Jul16 GRY G JulyA 2200 A 108 G Lerena 56.5 8-18 25/1 20/1 15 9.5 16 7.2 9 3.35 The Conglomerate 55.5 133.50 24.1 56.5 0.0 57.5 0.0 8 5.04
FRENCH NAVY 02Jul16 GRY G JulyA 2200 A 115 W Marwing 60 4-18 11/2 13/2 13 8.0 12 6.5 11 3.90 The Conglomerate 55.5 133.50 24.3 60 0.0 57.5 0.0 5 1.70

If you have a look in the Computaform collateral form from last years race he beats It's My Turn by 0,71 L.

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shrek
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Re: Durban July Final Field

8 years 2 months ago

#677349

Form Fundi wrote:

shrek wrote: My take on the race is as follows:

It is Edict Of Nantes and Al Sahem's race to lose. They both look classy and with luck in running should both be in the shake up. They have beaten the other 3 year old's enough times to so I can't see another 3 year old winning the race.

For the older horses the only one out of the top 7 I give a chance to is Marinaresco as he is classy but I still think he will battle to give 6 kg's plus to the two 3 year old's. It's My Turn has a master aboard and seems to be coming along the right way. He looks a big runner.

I am not convinced that either Ten Gun Salute or Nightingale have what it takes to win this so I am brassing them.

If Black Arthur can run as fast as the talk is about him it is race over. Off 1 kg less than he carried to a creditable 7th last year he should be there at the business end.

Mr Winsome carries a light weight for an improving 4 year old and is bang in form. If there is no pace he will battle to catch them, if there is a decent pace expect him to be picking them off at the finish. He is my best place bet at 42/10 on Betxchange.

Elusive Silva has also done nothing wrong in this campaign and is another older horse with a light weight. He should also be right there at the finish.

My prediction for order of finish is:
13 Al Sahem
12 Edict Of Nantes
14 Mr Winsome
11 Black Arthur
15 Elusive Silva
8 It's My Turn

Anyway to judge the strength of this years crop of 3yr olds.

Mr H, has put up the races nicely on the July Poll thread.

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Form Fundi
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Re: Durban July Final Field

8 years 2 months ago

#677354

shrek wrote: My take on the race is as follows:

It is Edict Of Nantes and Al Sahem's race to lose. They both look classy and with luck in running should both be in the shake up. They have beaten the other 3 year old's enough times to so I can't see another 3 year old winning the race.

For the older horses the only one out of the top 7 I give a chance to is Marinaresco as he is classy but I still think he will battle to give 6 kg's plus to the two 3 year old's. It's My Turn has a master aboard and seems to be coming along the right way. He looks a big runner.

I am not convinced that either Ten Gun Salute or Nightingale have what it takes to win this so I am brassing them.

If Black Arthur can run as fast as the talk is about him it is race over. Off 1 kg less than he carried to a creditable 7th last year he should be there at the business end.

Mr Winsome carries a light weight for an improving 4 year old and is bang in form. If there is no pace he will battle to catch them, if there is a decent pace expect him to be picking them off at the finish. He is my best place bet at 42/10 on Betxchange.

Elusive Silva has also done nothing wrong in this campaign and is another older horse with a light weight. He should also be right there at the finish.

My prediction for order of finish is:
13 Al Sahem
12 Edict Of Nantes
14 Mr Winsome
11 Black Arthur
15 Elusive Silva
8 It's My Turn

If you fancy Mr Winsome you have to fancy Krambambuli who on a line through Sun On Africa has the beating of Mr Winsome. Finished first carrying 61,5KG's with Sun On Africa finishing third 2,l0L behing carrying 55,5KG's. Sun On Africa finished second to Mr Winsome 0,5L behind at level weights.

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avataar
Premium Member
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Re: Durban July Final Field

8 years 2 months ago

#677359

thanks for that, I am still not convinced that Black Arthur will finish ahead of It's my turn........i could be wrong and if i am i will accept that, considering I will also loose money, but i still stand by what i feel. thats what makes racing interesting ...we agree to disagree.....

just like last year i brassed the conglomerate, and went out with everything, had the next 6 ..., but thats what gambling is about, if you have the balls to stand by what you make of the race, and how you see it , then one has to do it., and i have.

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Romeo8010
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Re: Durban July Final Field

8 years 2 months ago

#677386

It really did seem like Richard Fourie had quite twinkle in his eye (albeit a black eye from the headbutt he received from one of the horses) after winning on Elusive Silva last time. He may well have won a little easier had the horse not hung towards the inside. I think there's a fair bit more in the tank with this horse. In his post race interview he did also say that he had told Justin a few months ago already that this would be the kind of horse he would like to ride in the July & his wish has come true. Some things are meant to be & I'm hoping he runs a huge race.

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