Zietsman write-up:
Finished my Vodacom Durban July 2017 analyses last night , thought i will ponder a little on it.... and a day later i still dont want to change anything . Now this is my opinion after many many many many hours of handicapping and ratings and this is me at my very best a week before the big race!!!! I dont hide away , i say things straight , so I will probably have lots of criticism coming my way....
Enjoy the read, its the biggest race in this country and everyone should have a bet , young and old. Hope this help you all .
I went down to Greyville on thursday when the gallops was taken place and couldnt resist not to go walk on the track...
My opinion of the track : Rockhard and uneven!!! , and i wont plan to raid with our horses , atleast not on greyville turf. Lots of fluff on top that doesnt help , it just hide where the real impact will be and its not pretty. I doubt if you will see a horse coming last into the straight and fly through the field. You need to be handy or within the first half of the field to have any chance. The polytrack have much more "give",nice and even although it feels quite quick with the bouncy feeling it gives. How the turf track will hold up on the big day I dont know with all the cut-up but I really hope it does .
I handicapped all races that the runners ran in from last year's July and will post all merit ratings achieved over distances from 1600m up to 2800m.The 3 year olds only rated in last 6 months and ratings posted is wihout the 4 points deduction for 3 year olds according to wfa scale in month of July.
1. MARINARESCO:
July 111
Champions cup 108
Green point ???? Cannot take any horse as linehorse in that race and totally ignoring this race .
Queens plate 111
Sun Met 110
Gold challenge 102
2. FRENCH NAVY
July 108
Queens plate 106
Sun Met 106
Colorado king 98
Horse chestnut 113
Champions challenge 106
Gold challenge , no rating, tried blinkers that he hates and got eye injury , so ignore race totally
3. MASTER SABINA
July 102
Normal handicap 1800m 108
Summer cup 113 ( very wet track )
Pinn 1800 87 ( very wet track)
Champions challenge 109
Gold challenge 104
4. BRAZUCA
Allowance plate 1800 100
Sun met 92
Progress plate 1600 93
Colorado king 106
Champions challenge 106
Gold challenge 104
5.KRAMBAMBULI
Premier trophy 101
Peninsula 101
Cape stayers 98
Highland night 103
6. SARATOGA DANCER
July 102
Champions cup 102
Charity mile 103
Summer cup 102 (very wet track)
Gold challenge 105
7. THE CONGLOMERATE
July 107
Charity mile 91
Summer cup 111 (very wet track)
Queens plate 107
Sun met 88
Pinn 1600 99
Gold challenge 107
8. ITS MY TURN
July 106
Peninsula 104
Sunmet 107
Bettingworld 1900 104
9. TEN GUN SALUTE
July 104
Charity mile 91
Summer cup 95(very wet track)
Bettingworld 1900 104
10. NIGHTINGALE
Gold bracelet 97
Victress stakes 96
Paddock stakes 105
Majorca 103
11. BLACK ARTHUR
July 105
Green point , very poor , no rating
Cup trail 106
12. EDICT OF NANTES
Cape derby 100
Allowance plate 1800 106
Daily news 110
13. AL SAHEM
Gauteng guineas 103 (very wet track)
Sa classic 99
Sa derby 111
Daily news 109
14.MR WINSOME
Kzn challenge 96 ( very wet track)
Handicap 2000 93
Michael Roberrs 95
Pinn 2400 104 (very wet track)
Bettingworld 1900 100
Track and ball derby 98
16.PAGODA
Graduation 91
Derby trail 98
Sa derby 107
Daily news 96
17.TILBURY FORT
Cts mile 93
Gauteng guineas 98 (very wet track)
Handicap 1600 93
Bettingworld 1900 96
18.SAFE HARBOUR
Paddock stakes 106
Cts mile 98
Gauteng fillies guineas , poor ,on a wet track ,so not rated
Sa fillies classic 97
Empress club 98
Woolavington 100
19. HORIZON
Politician 94
Cape derby 94
Natal guineas 93
Daily news 104
Now to get to the best handicapped horse on ratings achieved with wfa consideration. (this is almost always the direct indicator to the winner , basicly the best weighted horse .) Remember that 3 year olds can improve more than the wfa allowance .
Races on wet tracks is not considered in this next list.
Will post best weighted and followed by how much other are out at the weights (will post up to 5kg out ) on previous ratings achieved.
0KG AL SAHEM
1KG FRENCH NAVY, EDICT OF NANTES , AL SAHEM , SAFE HARBOUR
1,5KG BLACK ARTHUR , PAGODA
2KG ITS MY TURN , BLACK ARTHUR
2,5KG THE CONGLOMERATE , THE CONGLOMERATE , THE CONGLOMERATE , ITS MY TURN , NIGHTINGALE
3KG MASTER SABINA , EDICT OF NANTES , HORIZON
3,5KG FRENCH NAVY , MASTER SABINA , BRAZUCA , BRAZUCA , SARATOGA DANCER, ITS MY TURN , ITS MY TURN , TEN GUN SALUTE , TEN GUN SALUTE , NIGHTINGALE , MR WINSOME
4KG SAFE HARBOUR
4,5KG MARINARESCO , MARINARESCO, FRENCH NAVY ,FRENCH NAVY , FRENCH NAVY , BRAZUCA , KRAMBAMBULI , SARATOGA DANCER , MR WINSOME
5KG MARINARESCO , SARATOGA DANCER , SARATOGA DANCER , SAFE HARBOUR , SAFE HARBOUR
To make it simple i will take each horse best and 2nd best run and give an average of best weighted:
(3 year old can improve alot and will mark them with a ++)
0KG
AL SAHEM++ (BEST WEIGHTED)
1,5KG
BLACK ARTHUR
EDICT OF NANTES++
2KG
FRENCH NAVY
ITS MY TURN
THE CONGLOMERATE
SAFE HARBOUR++
2,5KG
NIGHTINGALE
3KG
MASTER SABINA
BRAZUCA
TEN GUN SALUTE
3,5KG
PAGODA++
SARATOGA DANCER
MR WINSOME
4KG
MARINARESCO
4,5KG
KRAMBAMBULI
5KG
HORIZON++
7,5KG
TILBURY FORT++
Took me 4 hours to just type this , lets see the reaction and maybe i will give my comments on each runner and my suggestions what to bet
Lots of work for free , i must be crazy