Durban July Poll - Final Field

Agree......and i dont think they can both fall in a hole......so the July we can go short in exotics

shrek wrote: I think Gold Standards 115 says it all. I do not believe that Edict of Nantes and Al Sahem are 8 and 9 points worse than Gold Standard. Off a 107 and 106 both the top 3 year old's seem to come into the race well treated. Like I said before it looks like it is their race to lose.

So many threads, I'm getting confused .... if Gold Standard ran to 115 in the Met (and I made him 113 for what it's worth) what did It's My Turn to run to .... imo much higher than his current rating ?

I agree, I think for P/A and maybe BIPOT purposes perhaps it is possible to cut down to just Al Sahem and EON, but for the Pick 6, and JPOT it is still a minefield as this is the July, and its possible for these 2 to get touched off on the line etc

Elusive Silva withdrawn

Injured

Frodo wrote:

shrek wrote: I think Gold Standards 115 says it all. I do not believe that Edict of Nantes and Al Sahem are 8 and 9 points worse than Gold Standard. Off a 107 and 106 both the top 3 year old's seem to come into the race well treated. Like I said before it looks like it is their race to lose.

So many threads, I'm getting confused .... if Gold Standard ran to 115 in the Met (and I made him 113 for what it's worth) what did It's My Turn to run to .... imo much higher than his current rating ?

true, 6 threads for the July. Obvious that the moderator is pretty shite in his/her job allowing so many self same threads. You just cant find the staff.

Its My Turn
Pagoda
Saratoga Dancer
Al Sahem
Edict of Nantes
French Navy

thats my horses for my exotics

Normally going into the week of the Vodacom Durban July racing websites and other media are abuzz with talk that the three-year-olds are rated too highly by the official handicappers and cannot win.

June 23, 2017

This usually turns out to be complete claptrap, since a member of that age group has won five of the last eight runnings of the great race, although the most recent two victors were aged four, namely The Conglomerate and Power King.

This year the situation has been turned on its head as prominent racing personalities such as Derek Brugman and Justin Vermaak are adamant that the top sophomores are undervalued by a full 2kg or 3kg. This is largely based on Gold Standard’s sterling fourth in the Sun Met, as he is the only Cape middle-distance colt of his generation to have met older rivals in a Grade 1 contest.

Gold Standard’s merit rating was adjusted from 108 to 115 after the Met, and as Edict Of Nantes was only beaten a neck by that one at levels in the Selangor Cup, that could theoretically make him a 114.

With the benefit of hindsight the Cape Guineas could also have been undervalued, as the now retired to stud William Lonsgsword is only 109, after beating Gold Standard fair in square that day.

If that analysis is valid, that would make both Edict Of Nantes and Al Sahem slung in relative to the older runners at Greyville next Saturday, and by association the other three-year-olds would hold a marked advantage as well. Food for thought (and profit).

Al Sahem should win this year easily

Not much mention here but I fancy 10 Gun Salute.

For the record, my sister not a gambler, just an ordinary lady who loves to put down a few on the July has luckily chosen four successive July winners, strangely I don't always follow but this year I'm hoping she selects correct once again. She has selected outright BLACK ARTHUR.

Zietsman write-up:

Finished my Vodacom Durban July 2017 analyses last night , thought i will ponder a little on it.... and a day later i still dont want to change anything . Now this is my opinion after many many many many hours of handicapping and ratings and this is me at my very best a week before the big race!!!! I dont hide away , i say things straight , so I will probably have lots of criticism coming my way....
Enjoy the read, its the biggest race in this country and everyone should have a bet , young and old. Hope this help you all .

I went down to Greyville on thursday when the gallops was taken place and couldnt resist not to go walk on the track...
My opinion of the track : Rockhard and uneven!!! , and i wont plan to raid with our horses , atleast not on greyville turf. Lots of fluff on top that doesnt help , it just hide where the real impact will be and its not pretty. I doubt if you will see a horse coming last into the straight and fly through the field. You need to be handy or within the first half of the field to have any chance. The polytrack have much more "give",nice and even although it feels quite quick with the bouncy feeling it gives. How the turf track will hold up on the big day I dont know with all the cut-up but I really hope it does .

I handicapped all races that the runners ran in from last year's July and will post all merit ratings achieved over distances from 1600m up to 2800m.The 3 year olds only rated in last 6 months and ratings posted is wihout the 4 points deduction for 3 year olds according to wfa scale in month of July.

1. MARINARESCO:
July 111
Champions cup 108
Green point ???? Cannot take any horse as linehorse in that race and totally ignoring this race .
Queens plate 111
Sun Met 110
Gold challenge 102

2. FRENCH NAVY
July 108
Queens plate 106
Sun Met 106
Colorado king 98
Horse chestnut 113
Champions challenge 106
Gold challenge , no rating, tried blinkers that he hates and got eye injury , so ignore race totally

3. MASTER SABINA
July 102
Normal handicap 1800m 108
Summer cup 113 ( very wet track )
Pinn 1800 87 ( very wet track)
Champions challenge 109
Gold challenge 104

4. BRAZUCA
Allowance plate 1800 100
Sun met 92
Progress plate 1600 93
Colorado king 106
Champions challenge 106
Gold challenge 104

5.KRAMBAMBULI
Premier trophy 101
Peninsula 101
Cape stayers 98
Highland night 103

6. SARATOGA DANCER
July 102
Champions cup 102
Charity mile 103
Summer cup 102 (very wet track)
Gold challenge 105

7. THE CONGLOMERATE
July 107
Charity mile 91
Summer cup 111 (very wet track)
Queens plate 107
Sun met 88
Pinn 1600 99
Gold challenge 107

8. ITS MY TURN
July 106
Peninsula 104
Sunmet 107
Bettingworld 1900 104

9. TEN GUN SALUTE
July 104
Charity mile 91
Summer cup 95(very wet track)
Bettingworld 1900 104

10. NIGHTINGALE
Gold bracelet 97
Victress stakes 96
Paddock stakes 105
Majorca 103

11. BLACK ARTHUR
July 105
Green point , very poor , no rating
Cup trail 106

12. EDICT OF NANTES
Cape derby 100
Allowance plate 1800 106
Daily news 110

13. AL SAHEM
Gauteng guineas 103 (very wet track)
Sa classic 99
Sa derby 111
Daily news 109

14.MR WINSOME
Kzn challenge 96 ( very wet track)
Handicap 2000 93
Michael Roberrs 95
Pinn 2400 104 (very wet track)
Bettingworld 1900 100
Track and ball derby 98

16.PAGODA
Graduation 91
Derby trail 98
Sa derby 107
Daily news 96

17.TILBURY FORT
Cts mile 93
Gauteng guineas 98 (very wet track)
Handicap 1600 93
Bettingworld 1900 96

18.SAFE HARBOUR
Paddock stakes 106
Cts mile 98
Gauteng fillies guineas , poor ,on a wet track ,so not rated
Sa fillies classic 97
Empress club 98
Woolavington 100

19. HORIZON
Politician 94
Cape derby 94
Natal guineas 93
Daily news 104

Now to get to the best handicapped horse on ratings achieved with wfa consideration. (this is almost always the direct indicator to the winner , basicly the best weighted horse .) Remember that 3 year olds can improve more than the wfa allowance .
Races on wet tracks is not considered in this next list.
Will post best weighted and followed by how much other are out at the weights (will post up to 5kg out ) on previous ratings achieved.

0KG AL SAHEM
1KG FRENCH NAVY, EDICT OF NANTES , AL SAHEM , SAFE HARBOUR
1,5KG BLACK ARTHUR , PAGODA
2KG ITS MY TURN , BLACK ARTHUR
2,5KG THE CONGLOMERATE , THE CONGLOMERATE , THE CONGLOMERATE , ITS MY TURN , NIGHTINGALE
3KG MASTER SABINA , EDICT OF NANTES , HORIZON
3,5KG FRENCH NAVY , MASTER SABINA , BRAZUCA , BRAZUCA , SARATOGA DANCER, ITS MY TURN , ITS MY TURN , TEN GUN SALUTE , TEN GUN SALUTE , NIGHTINGALE , MR WINSOME
4KG SAFE HARBOUR
4,5KG MARINARESCO , MARINARESCO, FRENCH NAVY ,FRENCH NAVY , FRENCH NAVY , BRAZUCA , KRAMBAMBULI , SARATOGA DANCER , MR WINSOME
5KG MARINARESCO , SARATOGA DANCER , SARATOGA DANCER , SAFE HARBOUR , SAFE HARBOUR

To make it simple i will take each horse best and 2nd best run and give an average of best weighted:
(3 year old can improve alot and will mark them with a ++)

0KG
AL SAHEM++ (BEST WEIGHTED)
1,5KG
BLACK ARTHUR
EDICT OF NANTES++
2KG
FRENCH NAVY
ITS MY TURN
THE CONGLOMERATE
SAFE HARBOUR++
2,5KG
NIGHTINGALE
3KG
MASTER SABINA
BRAZUCA
TEN GUN SALUTE
3,5KG
PAGODA++
SARATOGA DANCER
MR WINSOME
4KG
MARINARESCO
4,5KG
KRAMBAMBULI
5KG
HORIZON++
7,5KG
TILBURY FORT++

Took me 4 hours to just type this , lets see the reaction and maybe i will give my comments on each runner and my suggestions what to bet
Lots of work for free , i must be crazy

Thanks Ziets. Not for nothing, clarifies your thinking and hones your handicapping skills.

Appreciate the information Ziets.