Durban July Poll - Final Field

Who will win one of the most open Durban July's in recent times?

KRRRAAAAAAAAMMMBAAAAAAAAMBUUUUUULIIIII :huh: :dry:

Hi Guys

I am predicting a sprint to the finish and the frame to look like this.

First - Master Sabina
Second - Saratoga Dance
Third - Its my turn
Fourth - Nightingale
Fifth - Al Sahem
Sixth - Mr Winsome

Hi I am just putting FRODO's write-up here so we do not lose it:


1. Marinaresco – 60 kg
Obviously not his run in the Gold Challenge , but still not an easy task at these weights …. Taking WFA improvement into account, he is around 2.5 kgs worse off than last year … place chance at best for me

2. French Navy – 57.5 kg
Ignore his last run … MR has come down so he will be carrying 2.5 kgs less than last year, but still if you compare him to Brazuca, there is a 2kg swing in favour of B for less than a length difference on their runs in the Champions Challenge …. I can’t have him

3. Master Sabina – 57.5 kg
Probably not much between him and Brazuca, for me both of them has a few lengths to find on current form and MS has 1 kg more to shoulder than last year – not for me

4. Brazuca – 56.5 kg
Imo has something to find at these weights on current form

5. Krambambuli - 56 kg
Probably not the stable’s leading light – for me his rating is too high and also I think he is better over at least 200m further

6. The Conglomerate – 56 kg
The defending champ – campaign seems to be nicely on track after a fair run at the weights in the Gold Challenge – has to shoulder 0.5 kgs more than last year which should make it close between him and runners like Saratoga Dancer, It’s My Turn and Ten Gun Salute. Jockey arrangements will tell us more – I’m not sure that Marcus would want to get down to 54 to ride Edict of Nantes, so if he sticks with this guy, at current odds of around 18/1 I think he still offers some value

7. Saratoga Dancer – 56 kg
Not the worst run at the weights in the Gold Challenge – taking WFA improvement into account, he comes in at 1.5 kgs less than last year, enough to put him close to The Conglomerate and It’s My Turn – at current odds of around 35/1 he seems nice value and imo has a definite place chance

8. It’s My Turn - 55.5 kg
Good run in the Greyville 1900 …. Striker on top (in preference to Black Arthur ?) …. Well weighted – taking WFA into account comes in at 2 kgs less than last year and should not be much between himself, Saratoga Dancer and The Conglomerate; definite chance imo and probably realistically priced currently at around 17/2

9. Ten Gun Salute - 55.5 kg
Very good win in the Greyville 1900 where he had a rushed prep … may even improve on that …. Definite chance and 16/1 still good value imo

10. Nightingale – 55 kg
Good second in the Tibouchina – not easy to compare with the males – could be stretched to be competitive at these weights

11. Black Arthur – 54.5 kg
Big talking horse; imo he will get in and deserves his place on his win last year in the Daily News and a fair run in last year’s July – should never have been outside the top 25 to start. Very well weighted this year – with WFA improvement is a full 3 kgs better off than last year so should hold runners like It’s My Turn, The Conglomerate, Saratoga Dancer and Ten Gun Salute on that form. Should still improve on his run in the Cup Trial – big chance

12. Edict of Nantes – 54 kgs
Leading 3 yr old with Al Sahem; nothing between them and on a line through Tilbury Fort there should not be much between them and runners like It’s My Turn and Ten Gun Salute; Marcus to get down to 54 kg to ride so must be a huge runner

13. Al Sahem – 53.3 kg
Right on par with Edict of Nantes – obvious chance

14. Mr Winsome – 53.5 kg
He should be very competitive on his run in the Greyville 1900 where he finished 3rd with It’s My Turn and they will be meeting on the same weight terms – looks big value at current odds

15. Elusive Silva – 53 kg
Will need to improve more as he is now worse off with runners like It’s My Turn and Mr Winsome, while he will also be 1kg worse off with Black Arthur on their Cup Trial runs – place chance

16. Pagoda – 53 kg
He will be 2kgs under sufferance and looks held by Al Sahem and therefore by Edict of Nantes

17. Tilbury Fort – 53 kg
2.5 kgs under sufferance and will be worse off with runners like Ten Gun Salute and It’s My Turn

18. Safe Harbour 52 kg
low weight gives her an outside chance

Bring Jeff Loyde to ride Master Sabina

Magic Punter wrote: Bring Jeff Loyde to ride Master Sabina

Byleveld riding Master Sabina

What are yourl thoughts on black arthur?

I personally don't think it will make the frame. If there was a better jockey on top maybe. Cant have it in my first 6.

Just Another Tipster wrote: What are yourl thoughts on black arthur?

Justin Snaith seemingly prefers it to his other runners

Will it get the true run distance?

I fancy him to win clan

It's my turn