Durban July Poll - Final Field

Hope it helps

Ziets...guaranteed there will be a lot of hard luck stories.......post race......LUCK will play a big part in the outcome of the race....

AL SAHEM...my view is that his draw will beat him....

Thanks Ziets .... as Magi says .... for us enthusiasts time spent studying is never wasted

Just regarding the rating you give It's My Turn in the Met 2017 ...

You rate that run at 107; the official rating for Gold Standard is 115, so ...

Whisky Baron 120
Legal Eagle 122
Captain America 117
Gold Standard 115
Marinaresco 118
French Navy 114
Bela-Bela 113
It's My Turn 116

Personally I rate the race as follows:

Whisky Baron 118
Legal Eagle 120
Captain America 115
Gold Standard 113
Marinaresco 116
French Navy 112
Bela-Bela 111
It's My Turn 114

But if It's My Turn ran to 107, it would come to ....

Whisky Baron 111
Legal Eagle 113
Captain America 108
Gold Standard 106
Marinaresco 109
French Navy 105
Bela-Bela 104
It's My Turn 107

Which does seem to suggest that It's My Turn ran to higher than 107 - or GS ran to lower than 115.

Lots have been written about the 'theory' that the 3 yr olds in the July are under-rated ... some say by as much a 3 kgs (6 pounds). They base this assumption on the 115 given to Gold Standard in the Met, and as there does not seem to be much between GS and Edict of Nantes (as per their runs in the Selangor), both EoN and Al Sahem should be rated at around 113 / 114.

Be that as it may, let's take a look at the relative performance of GS vs IMT in the Met ....

IMT ran 3.85 lengths behind GS giving him 7.5 kgs - so let's say that at the end of January, at level weights IMT was 3 to 4 lengths better than GS (and therefore Eon and AS). Depending on one's view on WFA improvement, one could reason that by the end of June, there should be very little (less than a length ) between IMT, EoN and AS at level weights over 2000/2200. But EoN and AS are getting 1.5 and 2 kgs respectively from IMT, so in theory enough to finish in front of IMT :ohmy:

Then let's take a look at last year's July ... IMT finished 0.4 lengths in front of Black Arthur at level weights. This year BA receives 1 kg from IMT, enough to suggest that BA should also finish in front of IMT. BA is also 1.5 kgs better off with The Conglomerate for a beating of 2.75 lengths - seemingly not enough, but one also needs to take into account that BA is entitled to 2 or 2,5 kgs WFA improvement from July last year to July this year - so in theory 3.5 to 4 kgs better off, which should be enough to finish in front of The Conglomerate

On the Greyville 1900, there does not seem to much between IMT and Ten Gun Salute at the July weights - given that both should also improve on that runs - so it follows that TGS should also be held by BA, EoN and AS; there is also the run of Tilbury Fort in the 1900, at the July weights, TF should be held by TGS by around 3 lengths - and given that TF was beaten 2.6 lengths at level weights by AS in the Gauteng Guineas, it does mean that AS would have to be better over 2200 than 1600 (quite possible) in order to finish in front of TGS (and therefor IMT)

So lots of ifs and buts and luck in running on the day could possibly blow all these theories out of the water, but one can only analyze form, not on what could maybe happen in the race - and on form the race seems to lie between Al Sahem, Edict of Nantes and Black Arthur with luck in running deciding the finishing order - so current betting pretty accurate imo

I THINK THEIR IS VALUE AND SAFETY IN THE AL SAHEM PLACE BET TO FINISH IN THE TOP 4 :blink: LIKE FOR EG. ON HollywoodbETS AL SAHEM TO FINISH Top 4 YOU GET R0.64 IF YOU PUT R1000 YOU WILL GET R1640 THATS R640 FOR NOTHING IF YOU PUT R5000 YOU WILL GET R8200 BACK THATS ABOUT R3200 PROFIT


Same applies to EDICT OF NANTES :woohoo: R0.728 TO FINISH IN TOP 4


:woohoo: LIKE IF GUYS ARE SO CONFIDENT ON AL SAHEM OR EDICT OF NANTES WINNING THEN THEIR SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM WITH IT FINISHING IN THE TOP 4 :lol: :lol: LIKE WOULD YOU RATHER WIN 50% PROFIT OR LOSE 100%


:woohoo: HALF LOAF IS BETTER THAN A FULL LOAF :whistle: :whistle: :lol:

Hi Bob, Thanks for the feedback on my new post for VDJ 2017. I agree that there is alot off threads on the July but I think there should be a single view once the final fields are announced.

ZM u get alot of stick for ur selections. thanks for all the winners over the years. I follow u on FB. Great stuff sometimes u win and sometime u lose. Trainers always put punters off.

Anyways, good punting gents Snaith will bush us as usual. MS MS MS MS by a long head..

Forget the ratings and form. If u look at everything based on runs and weights form EON is the winner. :sick: :sick: :sick: :sick: :sick: :sick:

Thanx frodo , great reply but lets handicap again, i checked again to make sure on calculations . Only wfa, weight and lenghts behind.
Wfa scale in january
3yo 12 points
4yo 1 point



You rate that run at 107; the official rating for Gold Standard is 115, so ...
If you use Gold standard 115 it will be :
Whisky Baron 120 120
Legal Eagle 122 121
Captain America 117 117
Gold Standard 115 115
Marinaresco 118 116
French Navy 114 112
Bela-Bela 113 110
It's My Turn 116 113

Personally I rate the race as follows:

Whisky Baron 118
Legal Eagle 120
Captain America 115
Gold Standard 113
Marinaresco 116
French Navy 112
Bela-Bela 111
It's My Turn 114

But if It's My Turn ran to 107, it would come to ....
Its my turn running to a 107 according to me
Whisky Baron 111 114
Legal Eagle 113 115
Captain America 108 111
Gold Standard 106 109
Marinaresco 109 110
French Navy 105 106
Bela-Bela 104 104
It's My Turn 107 107
My theory is based on 3 linehorses i used , its my turn (officially 106, and i agree) , gold standard (officially 108 , and i agree) and marinaresco (officially 115 , but i rate him a 111 .)


Hope it makes sense

Well after 100 votes

Black arthur a short head in front of Tarrys AS

Makes sense, Ziets..... but I thought Gold Standard was at 115; if he is at 108, the theory that Al Sahem and Edict of Nantes are 'thrown in' does not hold water....

According to the merit rating on the NHRA website Gold Standard has a Turf Rating of 115. If he was a 108 he would probably be running in the July.

Frodo wrote: Makes sense, Ziets..... but I thought Gold Standard was at 115; if he is at 108, the theory that Al Sahem and Edict of Nantes are 'thrown in' does not hold water....

He was a 108 coming into this race and i think he ran to about that also.
Alsahem and EON is not thrown in , they just in front but have more possible improvement to come .
Al sahem i think will win