Thanks Ziets .... as Magi says .... for us enthusiasts time spent studying is never wasted
Just regarding the rating you give It's My Turn in the Met 2017 ...
You rate that run at 107; the official rating for Gold Standard is 115, so ...
Whisky Baron 120
Legal Eagle 122
Captain America 117
Gold Standard 115
Marinaresco 118
French Navy 114
Bela-Bela 113
It's My Turn 116
Personally I rate the race as follows:
Whisky Baron 118
Legal Eagle 120
Captain America 115
Gold Standard 113
Marinaresco 116
French Navy 112
Bela-Bela 111
It's My Turn 114
But if It's My Turn ran to 107, it would come to ....
Whisky Baron 111
Legal Eagle 113
Captain America 108
Gold Standard 106
Marinaresco 109
French Navy 105
Bela-Bela 104
It's My Turn 107
Which does seem to suggest that It's My Turn ran to higher than 107 - or GS ran to lower than 115.
Lots have been written about the 'theory' that the 3 yr olds in the July are under-rated ... some say by as much a 3 kgs (6 pounds). They base this assumption on the 115 given to Gold Standard in the Met, and as there does not seem to be much between GS and Edict of Nantes (as per their runs in the Selangor), both EoN and Al Sahem should be rated at around 113 / 114.
Be that as it may, let's take a look at the relative performance of GS vs IMT in the Met ....
IMT ran 3.85 lengths behind GS giving him 7.5 kgs - so let's say that at the end of January, at level weights IMT was 3 to 4 lengths better than GS (and therefore Eon and AS). Depending on one's view on WFA improvement, one could reason that by the end of June, there should be very little (less than a length

) between IMT, EoN and AS at level weights over 2000/2200. But EoN and AS are getting 1.5 and 2 kgs respectively from IMT, so in theory enough to finish in front of IMT :ohmy:
Then let's take a look at last year's July ... IMT finished 0.4 lengths in front of Black Arthur at level weights. This year BA receives 1 kg from IMT, enough to suggest that BA should also finish in front of IMT. BA is also 1.5 kgs better off with The Conglomerate for a beating of 2.75 lengths - seemingly not enough, but one also needs to take into account that BA is entitled to 2 or 2,5 kgs WFA improvement from July last year to July this year - so in theory 3.5 to 4 kgs better off, which should be enough to finish in front of The Conglomerate
On the Greyville 1900, there does not seem to much between IMT and Ten Gun Salute at the July weights - given that both should also improve on that runs - so it follows that TGS should also be held by BA, EoN and AS; there is also the run of Tilbury Fort in the 1900, at the July weights, TF should be held by TGS by around 3 lengths - and given that TF was beaten 2.6 lengths at level weights by AS in the Gauteng Guineas, it does mean that AS would have to be better over 2200 than 1600 (quite possible) in order to finish in front of TGS (and therefor IMT)
So lots of ifs and buts and luck in running on the day could possibly blow all these theories out of the water, but one can only analyze form, not on what could maybe happen in the race - and on form the race seems to lie between Al Sahem, Edict of Nantes and Black Arthur with luck in running deciding the finishing order - so current betting pretty accurate imo