Charles Faul - Durban July Preview

DURBAN JULY PREVIEW SAT 1 JULY 2017 GREYVILLE
PREVIEW:
BEST IN spreads from +26 to +15 ie 11lb (7 lengths) which suggests a close finish. Up to 30% pf Durban July runners perform below best because of interference or injury, a negative aggravated by the narrowing of the turf track.
BLACK ARTHUR – 4YO: RATED 146:
Won 4 of 7 starts at 3 including an eye-catching win in the Greyville Guineas (5 May 2016). Ran a big race under 56,5kg in 2016 July when beaten less than 3 legnths despite running three wide throughout. At second 4YO start (3 Dec 2016) pulled up lame. Was gelded and rested. Two impressive comeback runs, 7 May and 10 June, and strode out well in his gallop. Now as a mature 4YO carries 54,5kg.
ELUSIVE SILVA – SCRATCHED
NEBULA – RESERVE RUNNER
AL SAHEM – 3YO:
Best draw; Champion Jockey; ran a huge trial in Daily News, when caught wide for 600m from a bad draw and now has a 1lb (²⁄₃ length) pull in the weights with Edict Of Nantes. From 6 lifetime starts, 3 wins, 2 seconds. As a 3YO meets 4YO BLACK ARTHUR on 5lb worse terms than WFA. A very hard horse to beat.
EDICT OF NANTES – 3YO, DUAL GR1 WINNER:
With a 1lb turnabout in weights with AL SAHEM on Daily News form, expect a very close contest again.
MR WINSOME – 4YO, another son of Silvano! (Black Arthur, Al Sahem)
Like BLACK ARTHUR a 4YO. Won the Natal Derby from a representative field and with 53,5kg must be included in all exotic bets (Quarted, Trifect, Pick 6, Jackpot). He has peaked at precisely the right moment to give Dean Kannemeyer his 4th win in the July.
IT’S MY TURN – 4YO: carries 56,5kg
Carrying 56,5kg, which is only one kg more than he did when running a top-class 2,25 lengths back as a 3YO in last year’s July. Remember 3YO’s improve at least 7 half-kilos through their 4YO season. Very impressive trial when 2 lengths back with 60kg in the Betting World 1900m. and jockey Piere Strydom commands utmost respect.
PAGODA – 3YO: 53kg
Carries 53kg ie a 1lb pull (one length) at the weights with AL SAHEM for less than a 2 length beating by that good horse in the S A Derby. Will be running on well at the weights. Big respect for exotics.
TEN GUN SALUTE (AUS) – 4YO: 55,5kg
Despite racing wide he romped home in the Betting World 1900m, an important July indicator (used to be named the Gordon’s Gin). He was a generation leader at 3 years, and that winning trial was only his second run since being gelded. Rated 144 but could be better than this! Well drawn with his Betting World rider Muzi Yeni up again. Include in all exotics.
HORIZON – 3YO: 53kg
Was beaten 4 lengths by Edict Of Nantes in Daily News (2000m), running on strongly, so a pull in the weights and an extra 200 metres with Richard Fourie up demands respect. We think that we have yet to see the best of this magnificent looking son of a full-sister to Champion Sire Silvano.
SAFE HARBOUR – 3YO filly:
Consistently shown herself to be one of the best 3YO fillies this season. She is a beautiful looker who will cherish this extra distance. A 3YO filly with 52kg who traces through Postulant to SISTER SUBLIME, the tail female of July winner MAZARIN.
TILBURY FORT – 3YO: 53kg
Less than 3 lengths back in the Gauteng Guineas and a top-class 2nd under 54kg in the Betting World 1900m. From the in-form and ever-dangerous Tarry stable.
BRAZUCA (AUS) – 4YO: 56,5kg
How good is this horse? Only ¾ length back in the Cape Guineas and 2 lengths 2nd in the Cape Derby. Romped home by 3,10 lengths from subsequent Gr1 winner Deo Juvente in the Colorado King St (2000m) in March. This is only his 17th start and his first past 2000 metres, and Gaving Lerena is being flown in from England to ride him. Interesting unknown.
KRAMBAMBULI – 5YO: 56kg
A very strong form line from 2400 to 2800m. This intermediate distance of 2200m should suit him down to the ground, particularly if the pace is hot. He will be running on.
FRENCH NAVY – 5YO: 57,5kg
At 3 carried 54,5kg at 4 carried 60kg; so this is a drop of 2,5kg (= 5,5lb=3,6 lengths). He was beaten 4,25 lengths with 60kg last year. Tough, hardened 5- and 6YO’s have a good record in this race. At 3 and 4 his July runs were top-class performances at the weights. He loves a test of stamina at Greyville and is another with a chance for money from the always dangerous Tarry yard.
MASTER SABINA – 7YO: 57,5kg
He has won 2 Summer Hcps (Gr1) and has a good draw. He ran 3,6 lengths back under 56,5kg last year.
THE CONGLOMERATE (AUS) – 5YO: 56,0kg
Last year’s winner with 55,5kg. Ran on strongly less than 4 lengths back in the Gr1 Gold Challenge, 1600m, last time. He loves this track and, unlike last year, has a good draw at 3. He will run another good July.
NIGHTINGALE – 4YO: 55kg, filly by Silvano
Yes, another Silvano! Her 2nd in the Tibouchina under 60kg was impressive. Dam by Fort Wood; Grandam by Al Mufti; 3rd dam by Gatecrasher; 4th dam by Savonarola. Stamina abounds. In the 2000m Woolavington as a 3YO last year she was less than 2 lengths behind Bela-Bela, and like most Silvano’s could be much better at 4 years. Good draw, Anthony Delpech, and 55kg all suggest a chance for money.
MARINARESCO – 4YO: 60kg
Close 2nd with 55,5kg as a 3YO last year. Loves Greyville and always runs a big race. All class and at his best over this 2200m.
SARATOGA DANCER – 5YO: 56kg
As a 4YO he finished 2,4 lengths 5th under 55,5kg. His preps have been good.

when you read through this every one of the 18 runners including the emergency acceptor has a chance so box the field in the quartet and trifecta i assume..rather give me a preview whereby the tipster tells you what cant win or place and what can ..in other words nail your nuts to whatever

pirates wrote: when you read through this every one of the 18 runners including the emergency acceptor has a chance so box the field in the quartet and trifecta i assume..rather give me a preview whereby the tipster tells you what cant win or place and what can ..in other words nail your nuts to whatever

if all else fails, look at recent history and start eliminating the no hope horses.plenty of them in this july field,forget sentiment and eliminate.

I'm sure they are previewed in order of preference?

If Nebula was only going to get beat half a length in July

It must be a blinder to win the last at 2/1

yes, comments according preference - it;'s a closely handicapped field -and, it's not an exact science, =when they turn for home, anything can happen. Apart from the top 5 in the Best In On Ratings, I'd pick a Class horse or two as well. As they say, #itsarush

Pirates his usual charming self I see, it must be hell hating life when you are as perfect as him. I find his comments particularly interesting as I can not find his predictions for the big race. Moving on. Thank you Charles, I enjoyed the thoroughness of your review. Where you do have my sympathy is acknowledging the fact that no amount of study and analysis can forecast the bad luck stories that inevitably occur when 18 horses race on a track suitable to 12

ota the legend the man they compare to a battery but at least a battery has a positive ,, :lol:

Over the Air wrote: Pirates his usual charming self I see, it must be hell hating life when you are as perfect as him. I find his comments particularly interesting as I can not find his predictions for the big race. Moving on. Thank you Charles, I enjoyed the thoroughness of your review. Where you do have my sympathy is acknowledging the fact that no amount of study and analysis can forecast the bad luck stories that inevitably occur when 18 horses race on a track suitable to 12

But Pirates did put his selections up....

Rod was right you are all hot air

coming to cape 1st week of august come down from your lofty heights and meet me would love to meet the legend

You on. I am at Vasco's on most Saturdays