Hollywoodbets Durbanville - 20/09/2022

Race 6: Middle Stakes 1800m

I advocate opposing Favs who step up in trip as I’ve found over time it’s a policy that bears fruit. However, in this instance I’m strong on #8 TIME FLIES. This filly has shown a good turn-of-foot, but although she won her maiden over 1400m, her subsequent runs over that trip have shown that it’s simply an inadequate trip to bring out the best of her strengths. She has three full siblings who’ve all shown their best once they’ve gone this sort of trip, so I don’t have any doubts that she wants it. She was beaten by decent 3 yr olds in both her last two starts and I like that there aren’t any 3 yr olds that she takes on here. The only real negative I have against her is that this isn’t a handicap and as a result she’s 3 points under sufference, but I think this step up to 1800m will negate that and I think her mark of 74 well-underrates her true ability. I wouldn’t be rushing to take 18-10, but I make her my best bet and therefore a banker in all bets.

SELECTION: 8

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bettingmyway.com/2022/09/19/durbanville-20-09-2022/

Please don't take the stupid price of 1-1 that this horse has been shortened to now.

The market is being manipulated on horses I'm tipping for absolutely zero money, so whilst I've been posting earlier to try and help people who are following my opinion, it's no longer viable and I will schedule my blog to go out 2 hours before racing each day.

Don't know who you are but impressed that the bookies take your tips seriously. Been following W2W recently and been making some money, maybe I will start following you as well since the bookies think you're good. Well played.

Justanotherpunter wrote:

Please don't take the stupid price of 1-1 that this horse has been shortened to now.

The market is being manipulated on horses I'm tipping for absolutely zero money, so whilst I've been posting earlier to try and help people who are following my opinion, it's no longer viable and I will schedule my blog to go out 2 hours before racing each day.

......no surprise here....a HW syndicate owned horse will always have bigger betting support as the HW fan club is huge and any other bookies have not many options to lay off....so it is kept short without actual support....:whistle:

Looking at the Computaform's PA selections he's taken a perm that costs R216

Mine costs R2 PA Selections: [7] / [8] / [4, 5] / [4] / [8] / [3] / [1]

Does anyone just play straight lines exotics?

COMPUTAFORM: aztabstorage.blob.core.windows.net/tabon...VILLE@2022.09.20.pdf

Bobby, the day the you play the Computaform PA is the day you (not you in particular) should give up punting. The W2W guy, Daryn I think, usually tips a straight line. He's quite good. Nobody expects him to get it right everyday, or even every week, it's a straight line after all, but he comes close more often than not.

Race 3 P6 5,8,9,11,13/3,4,5,9/4/8/3,4,6/1,5,10

The problem with straight line PAs is you need more luck than skill. You need to call it right that every horse you choose, the trainer is not just running it to lower its merit rating, or for a price next time out, and that it's actually ready for that race day. Then you have to get past even having picking the right horse on paper, the jockey actually giving it a competent ride, and not getting caught 3 wide or out the back.