VAAL CLASSIC THURSDAY 09 FEBRUARY

COMPUTAFORM az-pgl-dsi-ag-cdn-aztabstorage.4racing.c.../VAAL@2023.02.09.pdf

In my view Celestial City is once again a false favourite. King of Rome ran to a rating of at least 90 last time and could not be penalised. He is my clear first choice and at 2/1 is a good bet.
Celestial City is likely to appreciate the step up in trip but despite his breeding and price tag looks just an average sort.
Silvano’s Song is not well in at the weights on what he has done so far but seems progressive and should be suited to the extra ground. Must include in trifectas and quartets.

Bathtubs Over Broadway

PeterD wrote:

In my view Celestial City is once again a false favourite. King of Rome ran to a rating of at least 90 last time and could not be penalised. He is my clear first choice and at 2/1 is a good bet.
Celestial City is likely to appreciate the step up in trip but despite his breeding and price tag looks just an average sort.
Silvano’s Song is not well in at the weights on what he has done so far but seems progressive and should be suited to the extra ground. Must include in trifectas and quartets.

KOR clearly ran well above his current rating last time and if the track does receive a lot of rain and turns soft that will also be in his favour (as the Twice Over's tend to go well with give in the ground), so he is my first choice.

Celestial City really is just an average sort despite his price tag, but his family have done their best over 2000m and he wasn't well-in under the weight conditions of the Classified Stakes he contested last time (he looked vulnerable and I took field in the p6). He finished 5,5L clear of the 3rd horse and yet he never picked up a penalty either, so it's not inconceivable that he too is in fact underrated off a 74. His siblings have all performed well on soft ground too, so I don't see that being an issue.

I make it 4 from 1, but not quite with the same conviction as you Peter.

In race 3 Brosnan and Camerata ran a race apart on the 24th of Jan, where Camerata actually ran a marginally quicker time than he did.

I'm very cautious about using time as a guideline for turf racing, but 1000m is the one trip I'm at least prepared to at least look at it, especially when I find horses in the same race who've run over the CD on the same day previously.

These two horses ran in races 2 and 3 that day, both carrying 60kgs. Camerata's time was marginally quicker, but she carries 2,5kgs less today with her fillies allowance. She also gets an outside draw, which at times (not recently really) has proven to be the place to be when the ground has give in it. She's a moderate filly, but if she bags the outside rail she may in fact have his measure. This isn't a strong play for me, but what I can say is that I certainly wouldn't be rushing to take 13-10 about Brosnan, especially considering Iron Sky is only 1L behind him too.

This race is more open than the Fav a good thing imo and I've had a nibble on Camerata, as despite her being a moderate sort she has a few things in her favour here.

General Information as at 09 February 08:22

Weather Cloudy with 91% chance of showers & thunderstorms, 15-25degs, 11-32km/h Northerly Cross Wind. Sunset @ 18:57.
Rainfall Last 24 Hours 2mm
Rainfall Last 7 Days 7.5mm
Irrigation Last 24 Hours Nil
Irrigation Last 7 Days 12mm
Penetrometer Reading 22
Track Condition Good
False Rail Zero back straight to 2.5m on the bend with a 2.5m spur at 600m mark

So the Going is posted as 'Good' for now - imo this is really a guessing game today - rain is predicted - but how much and if it will change the track conditions, is anyone's guess - I'd suggest leaving bets as late as possible

Late change, Celestial City fitted with blinkers now.

Imo, on a line through African Torrent, there should not be much between Celestial City and King of Rome - both have also run well in soft conditions - if pushed I'd say that CC will finish in front of KoR - it's a 2-horse war though, as I don't think Silvano's Son can match them on current form

Thanks for inputs guys and let's see what happens with the weather.
We just had heavy thunder and massive down pour.......