MAN will be left GREEN....again!!!!

'Race-reading' as I like to call it takes you beyond Horse A beat Horse B by 2L thus next time out if there is a 2kg swing in the weights...blah blah blah ect.

It tells you what happened in the race itself....most importantly

1) HOW the Race was run  (Fast/Slow/True)

2) Who Benefitted from the Pace of the race (or simply...Race shape!)

With the stats for the above...along with a REAL PROPER understanding of S.T it is possible to get those form reversals that leave the handicapper,bookies and General public scratching their heads(A case in point would be PRITTI VICTORY last race where, on form, he had no chance with the fav) I can,fro m the top of my head name 100'S of such cases although mostly HK cases they all prove the same thing!!!!

While it is very good to look at 'form' it's always better,when possible, to get all the clues.

So lets take a Look at FLAG MAN vs GREEN WITH ENVY

I did a full Sectional Review of the Card and will post in later this week...for now,let's look at these.

A look at THE RACE first....

WINNER                               1st  200m        1st  400m      1st  600        TIME          R400m          R200m        

GREEN WITH ENVY            14.75               26.37              38.45            123.69         22.51             11.47

SILVER SANCTUARY            13.42              25.61              37.89             125.86         23.32             11.86


I included the other 10 furlong RACE to show just HOW SLOW they went. They were 8L behind at the 200m already and 4L and 3.6L behind at the 400 and 600m respectively. So to say that they were crawling is an understatement!!!!

RAW  TIMES:

HORSE                                L600M            L400M                L200M              L100M

GREEN WITH ENVY        34.10                22.47                  11.47                 5.88

FLAG MAN                        34.70                 22.53                 11.44                 5.82

FINISHING SPEEDS:

HORSE                               L600M             L400M               L200M               L100M           

GREEN WITH ENVY       108.80%           110.08%            107.82%             105.17%

FLAG MAN                       106.94%           109.80%            108.12%             106.27%

I Don't like looking at raw times....Becoz I've recently Learned (the last 5 years or so)  than even an CLASS 5 horse (Merit rating of 30 - 40) can run fast times!!!! Can run Group Race times!!! Can run Record Times!!!! I have seen this happen at both HK tracks where the Record is broken by A 32 MR horse becoz of a fast track. I have also seen GROUP 1 horses run Class 5 times becoz of a Slow track.

But are honest!!!! They tell you what the Horse has done and HOW he has done so. If you read my last article on FLAG MAN you would know I asked about him getting into the JULY becoz it was WHAT he did and HOW he did it, NOT whom he beat.

FLAG MAN had faster Raw times and FS than that of GWE over the Last 200 and 100m. The Way he stayed on fighting like a caged lion made most believe..with a swing in the weights,of atleast 1kg he can maybe beat him???? 

IMHO...I firmly believe he needs atleast a 2kg turnaround to beat GWE (based on Saturdays RACE!)

Let me also say....I'm sure FM is still improving as it was his 2nd after a rest/gelding ect ect but....He had EVERYTHING in his favour. The Slow pace Benefitted him tremendously that led to him running the cracking he ran. 

GWE on the other hand was at a huge disadvantage. Sitting stone last of that pace....It was a Piss poor ride by the jock I tell you that. It was all GWE that won that race. If Zackey makes a mid race move from let say the 800m he wins by at 2L or even more. GWE  L600 and L400 Finishing Speeds were tremendous and its becoz of that blistering TOF that he won the race. 

He should win the JULY....NO DOUBT!!!! (Although there is 1 older horse I make a serious threat aswell).

I would love to see FLAG MAN ridden cold as the Sectionals that led me to believe he is GRADE 1 quality was when he was ridden cold(Similar to that of SANDRINGHAM SUMMIT,unfortunately imho they have the wrong jock aboard him?!!!)

FLAG MAN will no doubt run a cracker in the July....especially if coming from the back but he will be running for 2nd or 3rd (I also took wins on FM...) Maybe if coming from the back....I can shout for him to catch GWE that last 50m,lol.

Good Times lie ahead for us all,be it an pure enthusiast, a punter looking for riches or both. Sectional Timing has made it possible for us to take Analysing of S.A. Racing so much further...so inconjucture with Form Study its as vital as oxygen to us. Otherwise you will always scream foul when there is an 7.5kg turnaround and the Horse still wins. Lol(doesn't happen alot with those types of weights SWINGS,but all the time with 1 or 2 or even 3kg swings)


Anyways...I said much more than I wanted to....GOODLUCK and Hit them Hard,sunshines!!!!!!


P.S  how the fark did those idiots let go of Shaheen!!!!! I saw recently he has a podcast or something,while I don't care for his selections (without any disrespect meant as I only care about my own) he was the best bloody presenter ever...period!!!! 

 

Very interesting reading Heinrich and thanks for the in-depth analysis 👍

 

Yesterday proved once again that Flag Man's run was just a case of a shit ride by Zackey and something having to run second. Ancient world was beaten 2.4 lengths by Flag Man and never placed yesterday , 10/1 for the July is laughable imvho

The snaith horse Hluhlwe moved up so well and clearly didn't stay , this will be deadly over a mile with that kick , can't wait to see this one out again over a mile 

Cheers HEINRICH 🍻 

I am GREEN WITH ENVY with your in depth explanation 😉👍

.....good work Heinrich....the pace on that track has become rather muddling as it is purely a tactical affair and the split times show that...GWE looked no where ready and has much more to come....but I fear on the big day he gets bulked for a run....  

Imo ..... yes obviously the 'pace of the race' is a deciding factor (and not sure what pace will be set in the July - so one can extrapolate past performance into future performance - provided the pace is similar) - my thoughts below ....... 

It is a toss-up between GWE and FM (so the value at current odds is with Flag Man) - Flag Man is lightly raced and still open to improvement, while GWE will be peaking (according to the trainer) in the July - so both probably can be expected to improve on their efforts in the DN. Barbaresco was carried wide in the DN, so should also improve in the July (if he stays the trip). The question is (and that is why there are NO FACTS in predicting the outcome of most races), how would their efforts in the DN translate into how they will perform in the July ? One thing to take into consideration is the weights - on current ratings (given that See It Again runs - and not sure what could be learnt from his gallop on Saturday) GWE will carry 55,5 and FM 55 kgs (too much for 3 yr olds ??? - especially if taking into account that last year's winner Winchester Mansion is currently set to carry 56 kgs). GWE will give Barbaresco (at 53,5) 2 kgs - so surely in my book Barbaresco is better value at 40/1 than Flag Man at 10s and much better than GWE at 5/2 ? 

The Cup Trial will be many an older horse's (like Mucho DInero) last chance to get into the July - so I will wait for that race (and perhaps the Jubilee) before making up my mind ....  
 

Very good insight Frodo. Fully agree with you that BARBERESCO is Defnitely value at that price....Finishing SPEEDS also indicate that he finished almost as well as the other 2 in front of him. When I watched the replay he looked all over the place aswell so I think you are on to something (about him being value) But....

55.5 or 56.5 or 57kgs.....I am backing GWE!!!!! to win!!!!

but I'm also keen to watch the CUP TRIAL....while I won't back a 3 yo against GWE....I will defnitely look at a 4 or 5 yo carrying 53 or 54kg with Very Good recent form!!!! If anyone is a serious punter...he will look at the past 10 years results (for All main races respectively) and from that results we can gain an distinct advantage. Especially the July!!!

Lastly....with GWE I honestly don't care if the pace of the race is slow....good or fast. He has proven he can quicken best off a fast pace, but most importantly can fly when they go slow in front aswell.He has got that 'Pocket Power' turn of foot and the Sectionals seconds it.

I am secretly praying FLAG MAN gets a bad draw so he can sit 2nd last next to GWE.....how lovely that would be to watch them fly home!!!!!

Surely that brings Purple Pitcher right into the mix,,he slammed Barbaresco and will be slightly better off at the weights,,and we know he stays..

Looks like my sums have been incorrect in that Barbaresco at current ratings (given See It Again runs) will carry 53 kgs - so that would mean at level weights with Purple Pitcher. I guess that Barbaresco's run in the SA Classic point to him being inferior to both Purple Pitcher and Pure Predator, but I think that the effort of Barbaresco in the SA Classic was for some reason below par - he subsequently beat William Iron Arm twice and also in the DN beat Pure Predator by almost 3 lengths - so I'm not sure why is still trading at 40/1 this morning - only chink in his amour could be the 2200m - as he sure will be in the next log ?

I'm not saying that Barbaresco will definitely beat GWE in the July - just that the discrepancy at the current odds is ludicrous 

heinrich wrote:

Very good insight Frodo. Fully agree with you that BARBERESCO is Defnitely value at that price....Finishing SPEEDS also indicate that he finished almost as well as the other 2 in front of him. When I watched the replay he looked all over the place aswell so I think you are on to something (about him being value) But....

55.5 or 56.5 or 57kgs.....I am backing GWE!!!!! to win!!!!

but I'm also keen to watch the CUP TRIAL....while I won't back a 3 yo against GWE....I will defnitely look at a 4 or 5 yo carrying 53 or 54kg with Very Good recent form!!!! If anyone is a serious punter...he will look at the past 10 years results (for All main races respectively) and from that results we can gain an distinct advantage. Especially the July!!!

Lastly....with GWE I honestly don't care if the pace of the race is slow....good or fast. He has proven he can quicken best off a fast pace, but most importantly can fly when they go slow in front aswell.He has got that 'Pocket Power' turn of foot and the Sectionals seconds it.

I am secretly praying FLAG MAN gets a bad draw so he can sit 2nd last next to GWE.....how lovely that would be to watch them fly home!!!!!

The only older horse that would fall into the category of carrying 54 kgs (min weight for older horses) at current ratings, is Without Question (MR 120). Even if Mucho DInero repeats his run in the Premier's in the Cape (where on my ratings he ran to 117) - so let's say he does repeat that, he would still be under sufferance by 1,5 kgs (as he would carry the min weight of 54 kgs)

Frodo wrote:

heinrich wrote:

Very good insight Frodo. Fully agree with you that BARBERESCO is Defnitely value at that price....Finishing SPEEDS also indicate that he finished almost as well as the other 2 in front of him. When I watched the replay he looked all over the place aswell so I think you are on to something (about him being value) But....

55.5 or 56.5 or 57kgs.....I am backing GWE!!!!! to win!!!!

but I'm also keen to watch the CUP TRIAL....while I won't back a 3 yo against GWE....I will defnitely look at a 4 or 5 yo carrying 53 or 54kg with Very Good recent form!!!! If anyone is a serious punter...he will look at the past 10 years results (for All main races respectively) and from that results we can gain an distinct advantage. Especially the July!!!

Lastly....with GWE I honestly don't care if the pace of the race is slow....good or fast. He has proven he can quicken best off a fast pace, but most importantly can fly when they go slow in front aswell.He has got that 'Pocket Power' turn of foot and the Sectionals seconds it.

I am secretly praying FLAG MAN gets a bad draw so he can sit 2nd last next to GWE.....how lovely that would be to watch them fly home!!!!!

The only older horse that would fall into the category of carrying 54 kgs (min weight for older horses) at current ratings, is Without Question (MR 120). Even if Mucho DInero repeats his run in the Premier's in the Cape (where on my ratings he ran to 117) - so let's say he does repeat that, he would still be under sufferance by 1,5 kgs (as he would carry the min weight of 54 kgs)

I looked at WQ 2 nights ago....long and hard. Even with that weight I still can't see him beating the favs.For me its a case of what will run 2nd, 3rd or 4th. SEE IT AGAIN is a class horse and can't be discounted and will defnitely be there along with WINCHESTER MANSION and ROYAL VICTORY (whom both have improved recently) Draws will be the ultimate deciding factor for me, as with that we can draw up a speedmap more and less and see where they will be (more or less) and from there establish a Pace of the race. I think when I'm done with my speedmap I'll share it on here (they are normally a just about correct so 70 - 80% of the time). PURPLE PICHTER I don't fancy at all becoz I think he needs a tough coz becoz he is an resolute galloper. The tight turns at Greyville won't suite him ?! But like i said Frodo....in Barbershop u found a solid value bet for the race,I think he will stay the 2200m because his Finishings Speeds over the last 200m was good. So if he gets a plum draw,I can see him being there late on