Clairwood and Kenilworth Saturday

Just incase everyone is too hungover in the morning,

Mother Russia to give PP a hard time tomorrow,

Anyone got any strong fancies?

Hibs,

Not sure Mother Russia has what it takes to beat PP. For me the danger could be Fabiani on the Queens Plate run? I could be totally wrong though.

I like Legal Account in the 2 year old fillies race

I'm taking a double:

River Jetez
Legal Account

14/1

Happy punting!

Goat should go well today...

Goat and smart banker

Will stick with the Pocket Rocket

Run Forest Run in the Cup Trial - Was supposed to be there as I have been in the past 2 years but have to attend a Rugby Sponsors presentation - Anyone that can go should. its probably the last time you will be able to see the champ PP at close range without a sea of muggs

Reading between the lines,Mike Bass did not exude extreme confidence about The CHAMPION today.Hope the Pocket Rocket wins today......

R4 - Add Thanks Dad... 20-1
R5 - Henchman
R6 - What's Going On but the Eudy coupling strong
R7 - Caymen Island
R8 - Mother Russa
R10 - Mikes Ideal

Race 3:
Mark must have a decent chance on Mahoihoi in the 3rd, breeding suggests he will be better suited to the 1600m.. only danger is Highland Jet which has had his chances to win a race.

Race 4: If Market Cap can recapture his earlier form which saw him beat Fabiani in last years Winter Derby he should be involved in the finish. Dangers imo Casey's Son and the bottom weight Forest of Dean

Race 5: Sam the Man will relish the 2000 metres. Chances to Quick Shot and Badger Lake.

Race 6: Tic Tak Toe and Chippendale

Race 7: Open race....

Race 8: Capitella worth a bet at around 5-1

Race 9: Nothing stands out, but expect improvement from Infinityandbeyond

Patent today:
Sam the Man/Tic take Toe/Capitella

Just noticed StrYdom on BCL ? (


Has he a July Mount booked?

Interestingly when I look at the shape of the race i.e. running styles we have:

1. A front runner: Mother Russia
2. Early Pressers: Fabiani and Blue Tiger
3. Pressers: Rudra, Smart Banker (who can also be a bit of a closer), Big City Life (who may be an Early Presser but last two runs he's been running as a closer which doesn't suit his style), Regal Ransom (who may be a closer)
4. Closers: Pocket Power, Tropical Empire (who may be a deep closer)
5. Deep Closer: Kapil

The above may not be entirely 100% correct but it's a rough estimate based on the computaform's last 10 runs.

When you have a lone front runner and early pressers and several other pressers you have a high pressure chaos race which results in either:

1. The lone front runner being kept honest by the pressers and get's caught late by the pressers and closers
2. The front runner: Mother Russia wires the field pillar to post if the pressers let her get away.
3. The high pressure shape of the race cause the pressers and front runner to cut each others throat thus setting up the race perfectly for the closers to come flying through at the end.

So either Mother Russia wins outright with Pocket Power, Tropical Empire and Kapil flying at the death for minor places or
Smart Banker, Big City Life, Rudra and Regal Ransom come through to win ahead of Mother Russia and the closers.

Mother Russia is the fulcrum pace (a concept developed by Michael Pizzola) in the race. That is she will set the pace against which all the other runners will have to compete in order to be competitive in this race. And not just in terms of her running style but the average speed at which she will be completing her fractions i.e start to 800m, 800m to 400m, 400m to death.

I think it is a very competitive race with top runners in the field. It's not cut and dried. My opinion is that should Mother Russia strip fit she will be right there at the end first or second. I like Mother Russia so I have to like Smart Banker who will keep her honest and I like the closers Pocket Power, Tropical Empire and Kapil. I always like closers in a high pressure race especially if they have a bit of a price about them.

But it's racing and the trainer's instructions to the jockeys and their intention with the horse all play a role in determining the shape of the race.

Break a leg.

I am no closer to finding the winner Midastouch:D