Karl Neisius

Is the fact that a moderate maiden from a stable that's a bit off form is unfancied necessarily evidence of foul play?

Oh, and saying the same thing a million times does not automatically make it true. People used to think the earth was flat, and there are people who repeatedly post on various blogs that the moon landings were faked. As was 9/11, for that matter - although in that case I'd love to know where the Towers and the poor souls in them disappeared to.

Be that as it may, I am not actually jumping in to save Karl Neisius' honour. He's older than me, and can take care of himself. I just have to giggle at how he keeps getting the rap no matter how many times he actually does finish in the first 3 - or even win - on a hot favourite. One thing I do know - he won't stop riding until he wins the Met, even if he has to be lifted onto a horse from a wheelchair.<

I felt i had to respond to this thread as it highlights how a lot of people generalize and make statements that have absolutely no substance..
here are some FACTS:
In Karl's last 100 rides (19th October - 14th Dec) the shortest priced horse he ran 4th on was SECOND-IN-COMMAND @ 22/10 add to this he has had 17 winners of which 15 were favorites and has missed a place when riding a favorite (4th or otherwise) on just 6 occasions..
In total he rode 31 favorites (false or otherwise) and won with 15 and placed on 10 so if the truth be told you leave Mr Neisius out of anything at your own peril !!!

crystal jack im new to forum,but not new to racing.been playing many many years and i was a regular at cape races until a few yrs ago.i hvnt missed a met since i started playing horses.my fav jock was j lloyd till he left our shores.imo honest karl will ride the current crop of jocks to sleep any time of any day.that is my humble opinion,but im sure not everyone will agree with me.fyi all jocks pull horse its part of the game and sometimes they r just doing wat they r told to do by owners who didnt get on 1st or by the trainers who is unhappy that the wrong money got on 1st.thats all part of racing.people will say it doesnt happen but we all know it does.ive seen it all and iv been a victim of poor rides too many times to remember them all, but i never cry about losing because its all part of the game.u gotta take a lose in this game because the only winners in horseracing r the bookies.

I've seen a few bookies go out, too.

Titch rises from the dead....

Welcome back Titch

Hi winzip

Thank you for your reply. I'm off to GrandWest for a show tonight.

Chat again tomorrow.

CJ

Winzips point is very valid,in that anybody who thinks that Karl Nesius,all on his own ,decides which of his rides will win or place etc is extremely naive.Nowhere is racing a one man band and trainers aren't stupid.
My greatest concern is that,IMO,too many stables are using races as training runs and therefore too many runners have no chance of running to their ratings( and some,not anywhere near).....in those situations the result is no different to "pulling a horse up".This is in breach of the NHA rule relating to horses being raced on merit,and therefore also falls foul of the "inconsistent" rule.
Hypothetically,if Karl is giving an unfit horse an "easy",under instruction,is that Karl's fault? Does that not explain why Karl keeps the ride,even after the previous ride has pissed people off on the forums
Again these issues would be better understood with alert regulation..........why have we never seen one investigation into a horse running well below(or suddenly way above) it's rating?.....as I have said before ...scrap the rules or enforce them!
When the commision of enquiry gets to the subject of regulation,they can be kept busy for days,with examples and evidence, of blatant breaches of NHA rules,without any action or consequence.

rob faux Wrote:

---

> Winzips point is very valid,in that anybody who
> thinks that Karl Nesius,all on his own ,decides
> which of his rides will win or place etc is
> extremely naive.Nowhere is racing a one man band
> and trainers aren't stupid.
> My greatest concern is that,IMO,too many stables
> are using races as training runs and therefore too
> many runners have no chance of running to their
> ratings( and some,not anywhere near).....in those
> situations the result is no different to "pulling
> a horse up".This is in breach of the NHA rule
> relating to horses being raced on merit,and
> therefore also falls foul of the "inconsistent"
> rule.
> Hypothetically,if Karl is giving an unfit horse an
> "easy",under instruction,is that Karl's fault?
> Does that not explain why Karl keeps the ride,even
> after the previous ride has pissed people off on
> the forums
> Again these issues would be better understood with
> alert regulation..........why have we never seen
> one investigation into a horse running well
> below(or suddenly way above) it's rating?.....as I
> have said before ...scrap the rules or enforce
> them!
> When the commision of enquiry gets to the subject
> of regulation,they can be kept busy for days,with
> examples and evidence, of blatant breaches of NHA
> rules,without any action or consequence.

Superb post rob

very well put rob faux.also note not every fav is a true fav and bookies always price up karls mounts shorter than they should be.same with striker,a marcus and mdk horses.thats wat makes this game so tough for the punters because they follow the jocks and punt certain jocks without studying the form.how many a punter doesnt banker a 6/10 fav in exotics if a top jock is on without even thinking and just expect it to win.i must admit iv done it many a time.lol

Titch Wrote:

---

> rob faux Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > Winzips point is very valid,in that anybody who
> > thinks that Karl Nesius,all on his own ,decides
> > which of his rides will win or place etc is
> > extremely naive.Nowhere is racing a one man
> band
> > and trainers aren't stupid.
> > My greatest concern is that,IMO,too many
> stables
> > are using races as training runs and therefore
> too
> > many runners have no chance of running to their
> > ratings( and some,not anywhere near).....in
> those
> > situations the result is no different to
> "pulling
> > a horse up".This is in breach of the NHA rule
> > relating to horses being raced on merit,and
> > therefore also falls foul of the "inconsistent"
> > rule.
> > Hypothetically,if Karl is giving an unfit horse
> an
> > "easy",under instruction,is that Karl's fault?
> > Does that not explain why Karl keeps the
> ride,even
> > after the previous ride has pissed people off
> on
> > the forums
> > Again these issues would be better understood
> with
> > alert regulation..........why have we never
> seen
> > one investigation into a horse running well
> > below(or suddenly way above) it's rating?.....as
> I
> > have said before ...scrap the rules or enforce
> > them!
> > When the commision of enquiry gets to the
> subject
> > of regulation,they can be kept busy for
> days,with
> > examples and evidence, of blatant breaches of
> NHA
> > rules,without any action or consequence.
>
> Superb post rob


rob...i wont deny that is a superb post...but we are not talking of training run horses here..we are talking about "hot horses"...horses that are backed through the points...ready to win...all to comes...where bookies are gonna be in trouble..kinda horses....case in point...lauries gold...backed in from 15/10...into 6/10..in a 7/8 horse field..pa going multiple thounds of times....the other 6 arrive..it only takes 1 to fcuk it up...so therefore i am not interested in stats...that he rode so many winners and so many placed horses...because it just takes 1 hot horse to bugger all the other multiples...and yes i am talking from my pocket....because before the race it was inconceivable to see me going out there....but thats not the only hot horse...there were numerous

Racing Guru,my point is,that any manipulation(and anybody suggesting racing doesn't have any, is dreaming) cannot be done in isolation,or just by one player.
I am not interested in proving anything other than those that assist my own punting strategies,so I will not elaborate,but I can tell you that I have identified and use repeating patterns that have helped me be much more successful in adding cover to what appear to be PA bankers,so I agree with you, that there are patterns,within stats,that are far more relevant than the stats in isolation.
By using those patterns ,I have improved my own returns on WCape PA's.....if that is coincidence,long may it last.