Thoughts and guesses on what looks to be a very competitive card:
Draw down the straight might be a factor - who knows?
R1: Nice big field that could indicate a draw bias for the rest of the night - of the top 3 in the betting 2 are drawn towards the outside and 1 on the inside - if force to have a bet, I would consider a small each-way on Samba Serenade, who looks to come out a fairly strong race in her pinultimate at this track - however she does look better over 1000
R2: With the absence of any significant betting support for a first timer - this looks a match between Lady Justice and Danish Zealot - LJ however my clear first choice as she finished 5 lenghts in front of Stunning Eyes in her debut, while DZ got beat by SE last time out - even taking into account the SE must have improved, the margin still seems significant imo
R3: Sabre Tooth moved up like a winner last time in a fast run race - only to be outrun late on - from the 1 draw I make him the best bet on the card
R4: Not much to choose imo between Die Kat, Rebel Flame, Urgent Fury and Secret Traveller - all 4 have been assisted by the scratchings and now jump from reasonable draws - War Trail has a good draw, and could be anything - roughie to consider imo is the Rock of Gibraltar gelding Norman Conquest, who tries blinkers and may start improving as 4 yr old
R5: One of the toughest races to call on the card imo - recently turned 3 fillies (have they trained on?) and 6 of the 10 runners return form rests (how tuned up are they?) to boot; this does look too short for For the Lads and Enchanted Silk, while Styling surely can be safely ruled out; however any of the others could be involved in the finish imo
R6: Colts equivalent of race 5; here I do think that Willow Magic is the right one; does look like a sprinting type and has won over this trip; imo both Umgiyo and Heart of a Lion are better over more ground, so that leaves the Laird coupling of Chekilli and Aurum Pot (jockey arrangements probably suggests that AP is the right one, but Chekilli won his maiden impressively so who knows), the Erasmus coupling of Jimmy Choo and Tiger Territory (TT being the choice of stable jock Sherman Brown may prove the dark horse here) and the slightly disappointing Playingtheenemy, to fight out the places imo
R7: Competitive sprint where a lot could depend on the draw and whether the standside track has enough 'give' to suit Sharp Design, who has won 4 of his 6 races on a soft track - and ran a disappointing race behind both Valberg and Jackodore in the Computaform Sprint on a firmer track at the end of April; Valberg also has his issues, and I'm not sure what the motivation is for removing the tongue-tie :S; Jackodore has never won over 1000, so not for me tonight; best value imo the 1000 specialist De Var Hyt - looks held by Desert Sheik on a run at Clairwood in June, but that was over 1100 and DVH was cramped and bumped on that occasion, also DS may need this run and also slightly more ground, so I'd rather take a chance an DVH at 17/2 than DS at 7/2; another roughie to consider imo is Midnight Serenade, who is ideally suited to this trip, but comes off a long rest; then there is Magico ..... the list just goes on and on :S
R8: Lots of runners using this as a pipe-opener; however Whiteline Fever has the class and the draw, likes this trip, and has won twice when returning from rests, so clearly my first choice from Cherry on the Top - the other obvious runner at the weights - however she just gives me the impression that she could find WF a tough opponent over this trip; 3rd choice for me is Approachable who has finished only a length behind WF in March over this trip at level weights - however that last run on the sand where he finished last must be a concern; many of the others really look badly in here and/or are drawn badly and/or should find the trip too short - War Horse best of them imo
R9: A favorable draw in comparison to Bouclette Top could give Henry of York (beaten 5 lengths by BT on debut) the edge here; however Striker is a master as we all know, so I would not be that surprised should BT edge HoY - Whistle Stop was backed as if the result was known in what looked like a very impressive maiden win - but that draw is a killer - still should be in the first 3 imo; I think HoY has made more improvement than Roman Express (although blinkers could also improve RE :S) - so HoY should finish in front of RE tonight - these four look to have the race to themselves imo
R10: Ze Tzar runs like this trip should be right up his alley, and I make him the 2nd best bet of the night after Sabre Tooth; not sure about the strength of the form of Woodstock Express, but the rest of the opposition look a bit on the moderate side imo - so 16/10 not a bad price on ZT
Enjoy (tu)
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