mike de kock says ....

You could never find the first leg of yesterday's pick 6, on form.
If, however the rules relating to consistency and running horse on merit, is better addressed, it may become generally true!

Ja , you follow the " form " of the highest MR horses from a Cape Town stable in P.E. in plate & conditions races & you get all your fingers burnt right thru to the toes. <

Boys, Girls and others

If anybody thinks that the Graft will be given out to every Tom, Dick & Harry that are not financially directly involved then dream on, whether this is from the Trainer or Jockey . After all this is a business so why give ur products info to the opposition free of charge. WTF does a Trainer know of the merits of Horses from other stables as ALL stables are trying to get the best prices on their Horses for themselves and then the Owners, they can only judge against their own. I used to listen to the Trainers comments before the Race, what a load of bollocks they spew out becuase every Horse they train is given a good place chance at least. The Punters are then so gullible they take this as sacrement and follow blindly. To me there is no HONESTY in the Trainers comments to the general public now a days and there never was either, not that I hold this against them. Why should I that only punts be afforded the same privalges as an Owner that puts thousands of Rands into this business or the Trainer whose livelyhood is at stake, or the Jockeys who all live very comfortably, wake up and smell the Roses.

Now what about the Jockeys, they ride for different stables and KNOW the true merits of Horses they have ridden. That is why the top permorming Trainers have a stable Jockey to ride their winners when their and their patrons money is down. Even the transparent Sham stable have stated that they line up a Horse to have a punt on, IMO nothing wrong with that as this is the NORM in this multi million rand business. Why are Jockeys kicked out of stables by Trainers ????. I distinctly remember Bertie Sage telling Raymond Rhodes that when a Horse leaves the Parade Ring it is a Filly/Mare. Raymond asked why and Bertie replied because they then have a C--t on them.

So yes the original Sakkie is correct that form is the only guide as IMO Horses are, given a level playing field, really are of a consistant in nature. I can recount stories from years ago, when I was istill intimately involved, both from MDKs and Bertie Sage's and later from Robbie Sage's stables of when to punt or not, and it was really potent.

So MDK is right FORM is what matters but how does the the Punter know when a Horse is ready to run to its form. I heard the doyen of Trainers state that he would have to adapt to the new training methods of Racing a Horse to get it fit enough to win as previously he got them fit enough to run to their potetial on the training tracks. So Mike how the fcuk am I to know if a Horse from any stable is fit. Without this info Horse Racing has become a FARCE, for Kings & C--ts, and the punter is not a King.

I apologise for the length of this post, I started it last year already but this subject is close to my heart.

spot on fogwils

Spot on.

form to me is everything, ive punted very sucsessfully for many many years with blocked ears, this is not to say that other people dont have usefull info, they do, as we all know, some have very good info but also go wrong inbetween and still need luck in running etc, others have mostly stiff info and only come right now and again, but YOU as a punter/outsider can punt very sucessfully if you apply the correct amount of homework and punt with patience and structure your bets correctly also knowing when to dabble and when to strike, unraced horses is one of the few times you can follow betting, mainly in weak maiden fields, then again you would probally hit 1 in 3 which is the average of fav winning anyway, most horses with bad current form will show some sign of improvement in a run before they win alerting you that they are coming well, watching a trainers stats or the color coding as displayed on Formgrids also helps to alert when a stable is coming well, then include formless horses from that yard into exotics etc etc etc ,,,, the point is i agree with the statement

I did not see the interview, but if he did in fact say that 'studying form is the best tool', I can't disagree with that statement.

But as pointed out by fogwils, the point / question should be if form study (while being the 'best' tool) is enough to make you a successful punter, and for me personally, the answer is 'no' - because of the reasons given by fogwills. And while Formgrids is a great tool, and can assist, without input from the trainers (and in some cases jocks) a punter can never be sure if that certainty that he/she has lined-up today, had a flawless prep, ate up this morning, and is really ready to run to his form.

And we have been discussing this subject on a few previous occassions; and the question still remains: who is responsible for informing the 'punting public' of the 'state of readiness' of every contender in every race? In practical terms (again as high-lighted by fogwils), can we really expect a stable that has been lining up a runner for a long-suffering owner, to just tell everybody about this on Under Starters Orders?

So study the form, and give it your best shot, some will perform as expected, some (most?) will not, if you can't take the heat, stay out of the kitchen.

And a Happy New Year to all on ABC (especially to easy )

the detail in my post is just for the learner/newbies ,,, 'state of readiness' to me is delt with in various ways, if i horse has had recent runs and something goes wrong and the trainer finds out through the groom/workrider or some other way he will scratch the horse, if he does not find out then even with "ïnfo'' you would have gone wrong anyway,,, often a trainer does not think the horse can win and it does, so a 100% truthfull statement would have put you wrong anyway,,, info is a double edge sword,,,, then also after a lay-off most horses form will show if they have performed well first time out and this indicates the horse can run fresh and should not be in need of a run and can win or place,

if the jock or trainer is "pulling a move'' in that he stops his horse and goes for something else in the race he would had to have studied form to know which is the right horse to go for, and for that reason you as the punter should take a cover bet on the main danger or sometimes ''dangers'' in a race to save your stake, i often bet on two or three horses in a race and breaking square is better than losing,, thats why Betfair is such a good product, makes it easier for you to structure your bets and cover bets,,,

Good thread. I agree with Fogwils but Mr. A makes a very valid point inasmuch as studying form does not ONLY mean the runners form. I often post 70% form 30% personnel.... and that is you need to pay attention to the stable/jockey form.... patterns etc. It is NOT just about MR's and weight turnarounds etc.
Eg: Yesterday on paper I was sure that Miesques Ballot had the beating of the favourite on a line through Argyle Bay ... 22/1 vs 6/10 ...but I only played a fixed place because the form through Argyle Bay was two very different courses ... Greyville and Scottsville... so all the fancy form, weight, lengths accounted for niks. The favourite won... but Miesques Ballot ran a comfortable second ...

I disagree with those that say info is important!I say info is shit!I have been betting/tipping without listening what others say for years now...although i use to watch USO in the past...i learned than and there its utter shit!I respect the trainers for trying their best and appreciate that...but when one wants to take racing seriously...One needs to study form seriously...Not all donkeys are foundable...but a certain amount can be...Some guys on here spots the donkeys on a daily basis,why???simply becoz they do their homework...or guess hahaaha...anyways...to make this a profitable business for YOU as a punter....do ur own work!For those doing this as a hobby....go listen to USO

boys open your eyes. you can study form as long as you like and will find winners from it BUT please when you open computerform it give you the results only. so you look at horse form and see these run 10 length behind then 12 length behind it dont say if these is the horse best ability. so the two runs you look at you can see it seem the horse is moderate but you dont now if these are easy runs the trainer say "educational" or no. you dont now when ahs is given. form is the guide is no the gaurantee so when mdk say dont listen he is talk non sense

Flash Harry Wrote:

---

> boys open your eyes. you can study form as long as
> you like and will find winners from it BUT please
> when you open computerform it give you the results
> only. so you look at horse form and see these run
> 10 length behind then 12 length behind it dont say
> if these is the horse best ability. so the two
> runs you look at you can see it seem the horse is
> moderate but you dont now if these are easy runs
> the trainer say "educational" or no. you dont now
> when ahs is given. form is the guide is no the
> gaurantee so when mdk say dont listen he is talk
> non sense


lol....i fully disagree with you here!Form study is my main tool...although it has been tweaked abit by myself