mike de kock says ....

so heinrich please i ask the genuine question hear

how do you distinguish the easy run from the full go when you study formlines? the perfect example for me - explain welwitchia run at the big t and the "improvement" when win in the cape? please do not insult my inteligence by saying turn around in weights be cause of her sex allowance

My tuppence worth from nearly 50 years of punting:
1. Form study and analysis is the cornerstone. This requires the ability to read a race, a proper understanding of handicapping principles, and a good understanding of the effect of key variables like pace, going, riding tactics, draws etc. There is a lot more information provided today than when I started punting which allows you to spend time on analysis, not on gathering info.
2. There is no substitute for watching horses live, and learning how to spot a fit horse on course, and likewise horses with problems.
3. Information regarding horses current wellbeing, what sort of work they have done etc. is useful provided you know and trust the judgement of those giving the info. Many trainers and jockeys can reliably tell you that a horse is well ; that it has come on since it's last run; that it should appreciate a new trip etc. Most are not good at assessing form relative to other horses- that's your job.
4. Picking and tipping winners is not the same thing as successful punting. Successful punting requires that you find value, and that you develop a successful betting technique.
Value is betting on outcomes where the odds you get exceed the prior probability( as assessed by your analysis) of the outcome.
Betting technique is choosing the right type of bet and managing your outlay.
5. Pay attention to statistics and factor them into your analysis.
6. It is hard to consistently make a profit from punting, as you have to over come the pool takeout (tote) or the bookmaker profit margin. You have to be 15%-20% better than average to make a profit. Hence the popularity of Betfair where cost is only 5%.
7. Punting should be fun and you should regard it as part of your leisure spend. Bet what you can afford to lose, and party when you hit a nice profit.
8. Public tipsters, commentators, on- course presenters are generally totally useless in SA as a source of punting information. Mostly ignore them.

anybody that thinks information is rubbish think about the following. I know i am as usual going out on a tangent but facts are facts.

The CIA's yearly budget is around the $14 million

That money brings in INFORMATION.

some good some bad BUT information nevertheless.

Some of you are assuming information = WINNERS

I dont, for me information is simply that. It tells me a horses wellbeing regarding a specific race. If you set Betfair aside and the ability to LAY horses, how much do you think you would SAVE a year by leaving horses OUT of bets if you were told they were
not ready
ill
recovering
unfit

of course some will still win but over time you got to be ahead.

so for me information is VITAL , i then sift through it and take from it what i need.

As a former owner in a stable i loved the talks with the trainer. MOSTLY because i made note of the ones NOT fancied and the left them out. As an agent it was pretty much the same thing, i called for a ride, if the trainer said : you don't want to ride this one its not ready" i would target that race as i felt i had an edge, of course i still had to fns the winner but it was valuable information for me.

Finally i will say that trainers really have the chance to be popular with the public. As an owner in a stable one is able to call the trainer and discuss the days runners, the trainer will speak openly about all the runners to his client (unless another owner is getting on) but most of the times he tells you the owner everything. and Most of the time its spot on (not the winners) but the prediction....

PeterD Wrote:

---

> My tuppence worth from nearly 50 years of
> punting:
> 1. Form study and analysis is the cornerstone.
> This requires the ability to read a race, a proper
> understanding of handicapping principles, and a
> good understanding of the effect of key variables
> like pace, going, riding tactics, draws etc. There
> is a lot more information provided today than when
> I started punting which allows you to spend time
> on analysis, not on gathering info.
> 2. There is no substitute for watching horses
> live, and learning how to spot a fit horse on
> course, and likewise horses with problems.
> 3. Information regarding horses current wellbeing,
> what sort of work they have done etc. is useful
> provided you know and trust the judgement of those
> giving the info. Many trainers and jockeys can
> reliably tell you that a horse is well ; that it
> has come on since it's last run; that it should
> appreciate a new trip etc. Most are not good at
> assessing form relative to other horses- that's
> your job.
> 4. Picking and tipping winners is not the same
> thing as successful punting. Successful punting
> requires that you find value, and that you develop
> a successful betting technique.
> Value is betting on outcomes where the odds you
> get exceed the prior probability( as assessed by
> your analysis) of the outcome.
> Betting technique is choosing the right type of
> bet and managing your outlay.
> 5. Pay attention to statistics and factor them
> into your analysis.
> 6. It is hard to consistently make a profit from
> punting, as you have to over come the pool takeout
> (tote) or the bookmaker profit margin. You have to
> be 15%-20% better than average to make a profit.
> Hence the popularity of Betfair where cost is only
> 5%.
> 7. Punting should be fun and you should regard it
> as part of your leisure spend. Bet what you can
> afford to lose, and party when you hit a nice
> profit.
> 8. Public tipsters, commentators, on- course
> presenters are generally totally useless in SA as
> a source of punting information. Mostly ignore
> them.

(tu)(tu)(tu)

With that i agree Easy...

Flash...i understand what you are saying,but what i meant was most races the winner could be found on form!Some races its just tough or impossible to find the winner using form.Thats how it will always be....but the majority winners are foundable thru using form

heinrich their is two people who with all the information in the world you will still get it wrong 8/10 time. they are leon erasmus and gavin smith

One of the best professional punters I have ever met, never asked if I thought the horse could win or it's chances, only ever asked " Craig, is the horse fit and well" nothing else. He was an accountant by trade who turned professional punter and did very well.

Craig Eudey Wrote:

---

> One of the best professional punters I have ever
> met, never asked if I thought the horse could win
> or it's chances, only ever asked " Craig, is the
> horse fit and well" nothing else. He was an
> accountant by trade who turned professional punter
> and did very well.


i 10000% believe that. Could not agree more

Flash Harry Wrote:

---

> heinrich their is two people who with all the
> information in the world you will still get it
> wrong 8/10 time. they are leon erasmus and gavin
> smith

100% flash..............except my list is a lot longer.
Fortunately there are some very professional stables who can be relied on to reproduce the form.

Seriously though in the past the form student was spoilt for choice as with the different nature of the racetracks, one could identify horses for courses, or course/distance specialist etc.

Examples are horses that raced well handy and could do well on tight tracks like Gosforth Park near/far bend and Milnerton near/far bend.
Also factors that could come into play were horses trained on the " home " course.

At one time many years ago Sporting Post used to include the comments......" Has won at Durbanville " , suppose because of the sharp nature of the track that did not suit big strapping sorts?

Craig Eudey Wrote:

---

> One of the best professional punters I have ever
> met, never asked if I thought the horse could win
> or it's chances, only ever asked " Craig, is the
> horse fit and well" nothing else. He was an
> accountant by trade who turned professional punter
> and did very well.

That is Tony (Abie) Abrahams I bet!!!!!...........knew him well and we often used to compare notes and strategy(when we were both not much more than kids)..........at that time,we both based our study around the original published Timeform(The one that eventually became "Punters Friend" in the Citizen)

The story of his resigning and becoming a professional punter was a lovely one............lol.

Flash Harry Wrote:

---

> heinrich their is two people who with all the
> information in the world you will still get it
> wrong 8/10 time. they are leon erasmus and gavin
> smith


Flash...that is why me and most of my clients only bet on Gtg,Kzn,Wcp racing....as some centres its just impossible to show profits!Specialise!