Calling the Handicappers or Vee or any experts?!

Sham Racing Wrote:

---

> Pirates, we would appreciate your opinion on the
> following race...
>
> Look at The Memorial Mile in PE a few weeks
> ago...
>
> Won by Celtic Fire (mr101) no points
> 2nd Silent Partner (mr96) no points
> 3rd Two Gun Kid (mr91) 3 points
>
> Rest of the field finished more or less on mr
> except for Changingoftheguard who ran way below
> form


would love to comment but i gave up betting and following pe racing almost 6 years ago

Sham Racing [ PM ]
Re: Calling the Handicappers or Vee or any experts?!
January 05, 2014 11:17AM Registered: 2 years ago
Posts: 833

Pirates, we would appreciate your opinion on the following race...

Look at The Memorial Mile in PE a few weeks ago...

Won by Celtic Fire (mr101) no points
2nd Silent Partner (mr96) no points
3rd Two Gun Kid (mr91) 3 points

Rest of the field finished more or less on mr except for Changingoftheguard who ran way below form


shams for me i see the handicapper do the perfect job. celtic fire is rate 101 and he win race by 2,25 lengths and is make the line horse. silent partner is rate 96 so in theory he must finish 2,5 length behind celtic fire. He finish 2,25 behind so handicapper leave him and i agree is the correct decision. Your horse is rate 91 so in theory he finish 5 lengths behind ( 10 point - 5 length ) he finish 3,5 length behind and so is 1,5 length better than handicap or 3 points. Is simple arithmetic no rocket science. for you or any trainer to ask these question tell me one thing - you dont under stand handicapping.

also sham racing one cannot assess a race purely on the outcome you provided..hcappers take into consideration many other factors these include the pace ,did any of the horses race wide ,was the winner ridden out or even the 2nd or the 3rd horse, big tailwindetc....many time the pure result of the race on paper doesnt tell the full story

for me this on paper is the perfect example of handicapping shams have not the leg to stand on. for me the problem come not when the horse mr is raised it come when the handicapper take forever to drop the same horse. one run can get you 3 point or 1,5kg penalty. in some case it take more than the year for that to be dropped

Sharky Wrote:

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> Please could any of the above kindly explain how
> they asses and rehandicap horses after yesterday's
> 2 conditions plates for F&M's in both Jhb and Cape
> Town. Firstly in Jhb Race 4 a MR75 wins, miles out
> at the weights... Then in CT race 9 a MR77 almost
> beats a MR91 at level weights and makes a mockery
> of all the other horses ratings and form. This is
> happening regularly in these conditions plates
> where in PE a few weeks ago there was a MR52/55
> can't remember exactly also run in the first 3 in
> a conditions plate, obviously miles out at the
> weights.
>
> Another thing, how does ZHIVAGO (D Drier) win a
> MR74 Handicap by half a length beating a bunch of
> KZN battlers to be honest, go from a MR79 to a
> MR90? Even at a MR84, he must be the worst
> handicapped horse in the world. 11 starts 2 wins 3
> places and has dismally average form if you ask me
> and he is a 84, and the way he is running, tell me
> I'm wrong?
>
> Seriously, I know horseracing is not an exact
> science but the handicapping seems a joke at the
> moment.. This is not a dig at the handicappers and
> this post is meant to be constructive for us
> punters to understand more. Please could you
> educate us and constructively answer and elaborate
> on the above??
>
> Thank you in advance8-)

As I have pointed out before, either the MR is wrong or many stables don't reproduce their ratings .............my ratings tell me that the handicappers are pretty accurate ,the problem is that many stables can't produce the "same" horse 2 runs in a row.
My argument is that this issue would be resolved with proper tracking by our regulators ...........but don't hold your breath.

The people who moan about ratings seem to miss the dimension of patterns(or simple probability)
The other day the tipping thread pointed out a horse with a 5kg advantage over the field .............. from certain stables that is a punt, but from many (as in this case) the chances of reproducing are very low................the horse ran last.(in many instances ,it's not about the horse!!!)
Couple handicapping AND patterns and you can then find the plums James talks about.

pirates Wrote:

---

> also sham racing one cannot assess a race purely
> on the outcome you provided..hcappers take into
> consideration many other factors these include the
> pace ,did any of the horses race wide ,was the
> winner ridden out or even the 2nd or the 3rd
> horse, big tailwindetc....many time the pure
> result of the race on paper doesnt tell the full
> story


Fark me.... firstly you guys are slowly getting the picture that MR is a crock of shyte... but Pirates so far this post of yours earns the Alice in Wonderland award ...bwahahahaha !! First really loud laugh I have had this year (tu)

The Madji Wrote:

---

> pirates Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > also sham racing one cannot assess a race
> purely
> > on the outcome you provided..hcappers take into
> > consideration many other factors these include
> the
> > pace ,did any of the horses race wide ,was the
> > winner ridden out or even the 2nd or the 3rd
> > horse, big tailwindetc....many time the pure
> > result of the race on paper doesnt tell the
> full
> > story
>
>
> Fark me.... firstly you guys are slowly getting
> the picture that MR is a crock of shyte... but
> Pirates so far this post of yours earns the Alice
> in Wonderland award ...bwahahahaha !! First really
> loud laugh I have had this year (tu)


happy for you pal but what im mostly happy about is im opposing people like you in the betting markets ...-D

Sharky writes: Please could any of the above kindly explain how they asses and rehandicap horses after yesterday's 2 conditions plates for F&M's in both Jhb and Cape Town. Firstly in Jhb Race 4 a MR75 wins, miles out at the weights... Then in CT race 9 a MR77 almost beats a MR91 at level weights and makes a mockery of all the other horses ratings and form.

Giving such examples without adequate background fuzzes the picture big time.
In the Cape Gold Academy won by 2 lengths in a 1400m race where 2 lengths is equivalent to 5 or 6 MR points - that's hardly 'almost'. The second horse Jean's Pride returned from PE where she had no form, after she'd lost her form in the Cape prior to that. This 5yo mare most likely returned to form - she was rated much higher previously.
Then the second to sixth horse all finished within 3/4 of a length of each other. The betting had an open look to it (5th horse was 7/2 fav), so nobody had much idea about this race beforehand.

In Jhb, in a smallish field over 1600m, the first six were within 2 1/2 length, which necessitates proper evaluation of the pace. Was it a true run race? Anyone with a stopwatch?
Picking on the first and second, saying the winner was miles out at the weights, and then not mention the third horse, which was rated and weighted on par with the winner seems to suggest the second ran below best, not the winner way above.
My suspicion would be that the pace was false - run the race again and you won't get the same result.
The betting in this race also wasn't very informative: joint favs at 7/2 and two others at 4/1. Again. nobody seemed to have much of an idea.

Handicapping is a matter of evaluating results based on weight, beaten lengths and pace. Then picking an appropriate line-horse (if you can).
The official handicappers have a lot of crazy rules to cope with, drawn up by a strange committee and sanctioned by the NHA board. Until sanity prevails at that level official handicappers will remain at the brunt of criticism.
Critcism which often is ill-founded to begin with because few people take trouble to evaluate races and pace properly.

well put karel..also hard to assess love viviens mr as bar her debut run she has been restricted to 2 grass runs of no more than 1200m and so her rating is based on sprinting not 1600m

Karel Miedema Wrote:

---

> Sharky writes: Please could any of the above
> kindly explain how they asses and rehandicap
> horses after yesterday's 2 conditions plates for
> F&M's in both Jhb and Cape Town. Firstly in Jhb
> Race 4 a MR75 wins, miles out at the weights...
> Then in CT race 9 a MR77 almost beats a MR91 at
> level weights and makes a mockery of all the other
> horses ratings and form.
>
> Giving such examples without adequate background
> fuzzes the picture big time.
> In the Cape Gold Academy won by 2 lengths in a
> 1400m race where 2 lengths is equivalent to 5 or 6
> MR points - that's hardly 'almost'. The second
> horse Jean's Pride returned from PE where she had
> no form, after she'd lost her form in the Cape
> prior to that. This 5yo mare most likely returned
> to form - she was rated much higher previously.
> Then the second to sixth horse all finished within
> 3/4 of a length of each other. The betting had an
> open look to it (5th horse was 7/2 fav), so nobody
> had much idea about this race beforehand.
>
> In Jhb, in a smallish field over 1600m, the first
> six were within 2 1/2 length, which necessitates
> proper evaluation of the pace. Was it a true run
> race? Anyone with a stopwatch?
> Picking on the first and second, saying the winner
> was miles out at the weights, and then not mention
> the third horse, which was rated and weighted on
> par with the winner seems to suggest the second
> ran below best, not the winner way above.
> My suspicion would be that the pace was false -
> run the race again and you won't get the same
> result.
> The betting in this race also wasn't very
> informative: joint favs at 7/2 and two others at
> 4/1. Again. nobody seemed to have much of an
> idea.
>
> Handicapping is a matter of evaluating results
> based on weight, beaten lengths and pace. Then
> picking an appropriate line-horse (if you can).
> The official handicappers have a lot of crazy
> rules to cope with, drawn up by a strange
> committee and sanctioned by the NHA board. Until
> sanity prevails at that level official
> handicappers will remain at the brunt of
> criticism.
> Critcism which often is ill-founded to begin with
> because few people take trouble to evaluate races
> and pace properly.

Thank you Karel, that is the informative and constructive answer which makes things make a lot more sense <

Karel, would you mind giving your opinion on ZHIVAGO? Thanks

It's not that we don't understand the merit rating system.
Can't race in handicaps because of Mr benchmark ,race in pinnacles always under sufferance, can't race in features if you going to get points for running a place.They are just opening the gap between placings .
So where do you race ?