FORUMITES RESPOND - HANDICAPPING DEBATE

Well put Louis. To subjective and harsh on youngsters besides a few other problems. Makes you want to wait until they are 4! Maybe a mixture of RF and MR system could work?

Frodo Wrote:

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> As an example of the challenges facing the
> handicapper, let's look at the DN on Saturday.
>
> For Legislate, Louis the King and Captain America
> to have achieved their respective ratings, all of
> Top Jet, Everest and Atomic Rush must have run 8
> to 10 points better than their ratings - so which
> way does one go? I always like to be on the more
> conservative side, so I'd rather take TJ as the
> line horse, meaning that Legislate (and Rakes
> Chestnut) only ran to around 101 (not entirely
> impossible given that Legislate had to come wide
> and then did not run straight) - interestingly the
> same rating that Futura currently holds - and
> lower than the rating of around 103 achieved by In
> the Fast Lane (taking Zephira as the line horse)
> in the Woolavington :S

I'd agree that Legislate and Louis the King ran below their ratings to enable Bezenova and Top Jet to get closer than Guineas run...Bezenova and Top Jet were 3 lengths apart in Guineas and 2+ lengths apart in Daily News 2000 so I would make them the line horse/s...
If one takes Bezenova at 102 (2-3 points too high in my mind...was given a 10 point penalty for Guineas run when Legislate and Captain America were having first runs since February...wouldn't expect them to run to rating after 3 month break so their Guineas runs should have been rated for what they were...below their ratings at that time), it will place the top two at most 105 with Louis, Captain America and Bezenova at about 102...

Somehow the three year olds, I think, are being rated much higher than they really are...look where some of the horses ran in open handicaps 2-3 runs back and you can see that they haven't run to the ratings they have been given for their runs in three year features...:S

TNaicker, you are spot on ! There is an obsession with throwing penalties and weight at horses.......because the Asian Conference says we must.... Whilst the really top sorts can handle this, its the others that CANNOT and their careers are poorer for it, costing everyone.

Based on runs relative to each other and using horses that have run in open handicaps (where they are exposed to horses that have a longer, established racing history) as the line horses, it seems that the three year olds are being rated anything from 3-6 points too high...

@louisg...and the really top sorts are more likely to run in set weight races so don't feel the impact of the higher ratings as much as those that run in handicaps against older horses...:S

My limited knowledge and calculations put Louis the King at about a 106, Legislate at 105, Rakes Chestnut at 104/105, Captain America at 103, Bezenova at 99/100 and Top Jet at 95/96...so, any of the three year-old contenders are carrying 1,5-2 kgs more than what they have performed in a handicap and this is what the July is...so, I'd rather take an older horse that is relatively well-in with the three-year olds...

Can I just ask a question, why does it take so long for new ratings to come out, I remember a topic on betting clan on Futuras new rating after last run. Why is the public guessing horses ratings surely they should be readily available :S

craig1974 Wrote:

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> Can I just ask a question, why does it take so
> long for new ratings to come out, I remember a
> topic on betting clan on Futuras new rating after
> last run. Why is the public guessing horses
> ratings surely they should be readily available :S


Futura could not get to 101 from where he was because of the '8 point limit' - so I guess the connections must have requested that he be given his 'true' rating - that could be one reason why it took a while - but in general I agree - the public is kept in the dark - unless 'the public' has the inclination to go and check up the rating's on NHA's website :S

@Frodo I've been on the website but found the news quite outdated, so just passed it by but now know where to look for ratings, thanks for that

I see atleast tabgold has the line horses on their website

BATMAN Wrote:

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> I see atleast tabgold has the line horses on their
> website


where about?

hibernia Wrote:

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> BATMAN Wrote:
>

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>

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> > I see atleast tabgold has the line horses on
> their
> > website
>
>
> where about?


Runons...... I wondered what that luminous colour was about...

NHRA website not updated daily..... check last update on top of merit rating page....

louisg Wrote:

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> NHRA website not updated daily..... check last
> update on top of merit rating page....


I wonder why - too much hassle :S