FORUMITES RESPOND - HANDICAPPING DEBATE

Frodo Wrote:

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> louisg Wrote:
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> > NHRA website not updated daily..... check last
> > update on top of merit rating page....
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>
> I wonder why - too much hassle :S


My pet peeve is the slow upload of stipes reports - I love the roundup where you can at least have an idea of why your horse ran the way it did - A laptop and ADSL is all that is needed to upload these reports after the races(I remember having to collect hard copies from the Stipes Boardroom in the 90's so I know they are typed up shortly after the last race)

I feel horses leaving the maiden ranks are too heavily penalised some time. You beat a field of fellow maidens and next time out have to give weight to hard knocking 3 and 4 time winners.

shrek Wrote:

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> I feel horses leaving the maiden ranks are too
> heavily penalised some time. You beat a field of
> fellow maidens and next time out have to give
> weight to hard knocking 3 and 4 time winners.


I agree - sometimes it just 'feels' wrong - and I don't have stats, but my perception is that many of these 'maiden winners' after having failed to feature in their first few post-maiden efforts, are then dropped. So either the maiden ratings are too high, of the 'lower handicapped' runners are too low - or a combination of both :S

3 examples running on Thursday on the Vaal sand (all 3yr old fillies)

Belle Coco - rated 83 after a maiden win (2yr old in open company) in June last year - current rating 75
Foxy Ice - rated 69 after a maiden win in Feb - current rating (4 runs later) 63
E-Ticket - rated 85 : after a maiden win (2yr old in open company) in June last year - down to a more realistic 71 in April this year

The ratings given to the juveniles after winning in open company seem to suggest that maybe the WFA allowance is out of kilter for late 2 yr olds :S

But then there will always be the exceptions:

Escudo - Rated 68 after her maiden win the other day (on turf) - then proceeded to defy that rating on the sand next time - current rating 75. However this could just be because she is much better on the sand - would be interesting to see what she does if she goes back to the turf.

I believe as stated above it also has a lot to do with prize money....in sa 99% of maidens race in maiden races. Over here they race in handicaps (because at some level) winning a maiden becomes impossible. a horse rated 53 has a better chance in the correct handicap versus always running in maidens and potentially bumping horses rated higher.

shift the prize money around and most of this debate will fall away.......MAKE em graft harder and plan better to earn money.,

Our handicappers should rematch the movie Pharlap

Louis goosen will spit his dummy out halfway through the debate with karel miedema its the mismatch of the century

And when he doesnt, then surely, Harry Hotspur will say that its not Louis Goosen posts, that someone is priming him....:S

Shit, given the opinions on the current MR system by many others in Racing, a lot of dummies are going to be spat. Anyone selling dummies ? (

Goosen

would you rather

1: own
2: train
3: breed



Negev or Rake's Chestnut

there in lies your answer...........both had/have similar ratings one has run 4 times the other lots of times.

If it was me asked the question i would struggle to answer it.

1: its really nice seeing your horse run often and compete

but

2: its really nice having a chance at some big races with a fresh horse...

tough call

Is Karl Meidema an official handicapper? Excuse my ignorance - :S

abacus Wrote:

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> Is Karl Meidema an official handicapper? Excuse my
> ignorance - :S


Sporting Post owner/editor/handicaper/breeding expert

hibernia Wrote:

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> abacus Wrote:
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> > Is Karl Meidema an official handicapper? Excuse
> my
> > ignorance - :S
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> Sporting Post owner/editor/handicaper/breeding
> expert

Many years ago somebody handed me a document saying " you might be interested in this"
It was a thesis by Karelia Meidema-I kept it for many years and it was about whether betting on horses could be profitable ( or similar)
it was full of stats and facts and figures-it would be interesting to have Karels opinion of how much difference the change to MR system has made to his findings.(was race figure in those days)

I have huge respect for Karel. Yes, we can and will disagree, but I believe that he will be forthright and that he is the correct man for the debate, as he believes in the current system and the direction of the handicappers. Much of my respect for Karel is simply because he will call a spade a spade.

We are poles apart on this debate, which is why it will be proper.