FORUMITES RESPOND - HANDICAPPING DEBATE

Forumites, please respond to the Handicapping Debate here

I have just posted on the Turffontein thread. Paintyourface, 7x winner, 6yr old,R467000+. Chill,3x winner, 6yr old and about R170000 in stakes.Chill mr 74, Paintyourface probably about a 68 after last win today. 65 before the race and dropping 4 from 69 after running 4th in his previous run and having won 2 in a row before that. Chill will give him about 3kgs! Am I missing something?:S

Craig Eudey Wrote:

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> I have just posted on the Turffontein thread.
> Paintyourface, 7x winner, 6yr old,R467000+.
> Chill,3x winner, 6yr old and about R170000 in
> stakes.Chill mr 74, Paintyourface probably about a
> 68 after last win today. 65 before the race and
> dropping 4 from 69 after running 4th in his
> previous run and having won 2 in a row before
> that. Chill will give him about 3kgs! Am I missing
> something?:S


I highly recommend that you go spend an afternoon with the handicapper in natal who is Mathew lips as it is clear from this statement that you have little understanding of how the system works..before you go take time to download the 30 odd pages from the nhra website . .

Louis, a response to your first post on the Debate Thread.......................it was not the handicappers who made the decision to up all the MR's by 6...........................it was your mates with all the good business sense who attended that international conference and came back with the "bright" idea..............the handicappers merely followed orders.......................your aim is obviously not too good!

From what i read here the issue is BAD horses win loads of races and good roses don't.


One of 3 things is not right with my absolute mate goosen and my other mate eudey....

BOYS...BAD horses are the majority so they have to be catered for, handicapping works everywhere else n the world EXCEPT for in SA where MOST trainers just don't get it.....

At this point i want to say this statement is NOT pro handicapping, its more pro facts.....and reality.

Of course a gelding rated in a band between 60 and 84 will win 10 races....those races are the bread and butter races and said gelding will in his career fluctuate between his lowest mark and his highest....he will win the run unplaced and drop a few points then become competitive again and win and so on and so forth....

Now a top horse SHOULD not have to run 40 times in its career, its career should be geared towards breeding...of course a top gelding (and there are many) will continue to race because they offer nothing post racing. BUT what exactly is the point of a horse CLEARLY listed or group material winning 5 races in divisions so low it makes no difference?

I think the real issue here is the trainers and the training tracks....its NOT unheard of for a horse to run in the 2000 Guineas as its 1st start of the year, often after a 3 or 4 month layoff...there are some trail races along the way but quite a high % have their 1st start in the big one. This happens because trainers over here seem to be able to prepare horses OFF TRACK and NOT have to use races to get horses ready....Goosen told me once its a to to do with training tracks BUT i believe that its also a lot to do with trainers, AFTER ALL WHAT is the difference between preparing a 2 years old to be ready on debut BUT you can't prepare your stable star to be ready for a big one without 2 prep races?????

Okay so the weather does not help sometimes BUT over all SA trainers LOVE prep races....and this is their issue IMVHO. They want to prep their horses in races, there are NOT enough conditions races and they therefore want them in handicaps....

Now lets talk a bit about BAD horses, i really FAIL to see how a horses ability (in SA) stops it from running to form. If a horse is rated 60 it should run between 57 and 64 every race.....WHY don't they? well its easy to blame the handicapper BUT i fear again its the trainers....If you have a stable FULL of horses rated 60 you should still be WINNING handicaps that cater for horses with that mark...WHAT you won't do is win handicaps with horses rated 60 running in MR 90's..

Which brings me to the programmers...for me NEXT to the trainers these guys are the biggest culprits for in and out running as well as this dilemma of horses and handicap marks being criticised ....

For me the programme needs to EVOLVE....it cannot be done 12 months in advance, they need to visit training centres, they need to talk to trainers and extra meetings with extra races fitted in to CATER FOR THE ACTUAL racehorse population.

Example they might go to the Vaal and see Goosen and a few other trainers ALL with the same request for a race for 5 year old mares rated 89-101 that have won more than 4 races f which 1 in the last 2 months....it COULD and SHOULD be that specific....this would afford the trainers races to target as prep races / conditions races without fear of retribution from "handicapping"

hope i have sort of made sense.....

Easy, you make sense. .. And assumptions... you have no idea what the debate will be about... It isn't as much about the system as it is about the application.
Rob, you obviously know more than I do. All that I know is that I attended various official meetings on the 6 points issue. In every single one of those meetings, the handicapper DEFENDED the 6 points raise. That is why it took so long to sort out. ALL of the Operators and Associations supported the removal of the raise, which is why it was done, reluctantly and at a snails pace. I dont know which meetings you attended.

I really think the handicapping current situation in SA need to be investigated, its too subjective, there needs to be an open transparent comission set up to take all peoles views and some out come made so that all can live with it.

Easy, on programming, it is impossible to ask Trainers. Virus after virus. Trainers don't submit returns etc etc. The current system of splitting races on demand at acceptances is probably the best system.

Surely the most obvious way of clearing up any debate is for the handicapper to publish his line horse?

H H, I see that one was a sand rating so PYF was not dropped. I do understand the system and phone Matthew if I need to know something. All most trainers and owners want is consistency where horses of equal ability have the same rating. In the above example, try tell people/punters/owners that a horse that has won 2.33 times another horse in races and stakes should receive weight from the other horse when they are the same age?

Richie77 Wrote:

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> Surely the most obvious way of clearing up any
> debate is for the handicapper to publish his line
> horse?


they are - look at the KZN Tab runons and the hore highlighted in green is the line horse

@ Louis,

You say it isn't as much about the system as it is about the application.Your statement on tv after Negev's victory in the Syringa was along the lines of let's see now if the handicapper can stop Negev like he has Moggytwoshoes.

So lets look at Moggy's career.

She wins her 5th start rated 73 by 2,75L,but does not get any penalty(she worked out a cert on form),so thus starts her 'handicap career' off a mark of 73.

A few runs and then the whole population is raised 6 points,so her next victory off a 79(in her 11th start) amounts to a victory off her original handicapping mark of 73.This is her 1st victory on the inside track,and subsequent results show that this is probably where she 1st showed her liking for this course.It is a novice and she picks up no penalty as she is the nett highest rated horse in the race.

In December the 6 points are reversed for the whole population,so Moggy reverts back to a 73.

On the 25-02-2014 she wins her 3rd race,off a mark of 73.It is a handicap,so the handicapper according to the rules has to give her a mandatory minimum 2 pound penalty.He gives her 3.

On the 20-03-2014,her next subsequent start,she wins a pinnacle plate at Turffontein.She is a nett 84 in this race,and the highest rated horse is Festival Of Fire who is a nett 96.She therefore wins from 12 pounds out at the handicap.The handicapper gives her the maximum penalty of 6 pounds,I mean what else must he do if her trainer puts her in a race where she is badly in but she still wins.She has clearly taken to the conditions that the inside track at Turffontein provide,and is improving run to run each time she runs on this course.

She picks up a 2 pound penalty for her next start,which is a 2nd placing.

On the 10-05-2014 she wins her 5th start,again on the inside track,off her new rating of 84.This time the handicapper does take the view that she is clearly still underrated and gives her a 7 pound penalty.

Her new rating is now 91.

She then runs 3rd in the Syringa,where you the trainer state in the winning interview for Negev that she was unlucky as she got baulked at the rail and should have finished much closer than the 2,75L behind that she did.Her new rating of 91 is clearly not too high.

I therefore say to you,how can you make a statement that the handicapper has stopped this horse,especially on tv.

If you were the handicapper please explain how you would have rated her differently through her career,as from my point of view I reckon he's got her pretty spot on.