FORUMITES RESPOND - HANDICAPPING DEBATE

Futura's trainer was given the option of raising his MR - why was LG not given the option of keeping TT's rating to what he had achieved (on turf) - instead his appeal (and deposit) is dismissed - so even if we take JD's point that the handicapper has to make all runners competitive, to me taking away a deposit for making a reasonable objection, is not right - again I have no interest in this specific case and I am merely commenting as an interested observer (but if it were my horse .....)

rob faux Wrote:

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> Jack,is that not merging 2
> systems?.............Rating of runs but adjusting
> for number of wins.
> Using number of wins to anticipate how good a
> horse might turn out to be would seem to set a
> dangerous precedent.

No, I said i wasnt talking about the ratings, but the principle of what the handicapper is trying to do.

After all the rhetoric about this horse, he now looks (in general) perhaps to be a cut above "handicappers".

It's the same as an earlier conversation about how you rate a field of first timers. In that case you rely on a lot of "clues" that is not scientific or mathematical, but experience. I look seriously at the size of the field, the class of the field (in this case which yards) and back that up with riders, breeding and price. Non of that is ever used in ratings. You can often just watch and say i doubt the winner ran much more than a 70-something, or that looked like its on the way to a 90. It's not often you go back and find you were completely wrong.

What I found extremely surprising, is that it is OFTEN easier to price up a field of unraced juveniles, and pick a straight line trifecta, straight from the card than it is in many other races. Try, you will see how often the betting follows the opening assessment and then arrives.

You will also note a change in strategy with trainers who have cottoned on. MDK, Van Zyl, and Woodruff more recently with Rake's Chestnut, have been quick to choose "classic' horses (or non-handicappers) and leap into proper races and built value into the horse itself. Shogunnar and Eaton Square for V Zyl. Futura threw his hat in that ring, but didnt go the way Jackson or Capt America did. It's exciting to see trainers thinking out of the box sometimes.

What will King of Pain go up to? If using any of the 3 that ran behind him he will go up close to a 120. Will his soft lead and the way he was able to dictate be taken into account?

If the handicapper uses either BB or CTN as the line horse, then he goes to 118. Given that this was a slow run race, and KoP was cleverly ridden from the front, in my book despite the top horses finishing 2,3,4; this was a false run race and should be treated with caution. The time was the same as that for the Challenge race ove 1600m, whereas you would expect Gr 1 to be a couple of seconds faster. It is a tricky judgement call, but I would put him up to no more than 113 or 114.

put him up and his trainer will probably challenge this based on the "poor run race" seems the handicappers are dammed if they do and dammed if they don't.


for me the answer is as follows

ALL jockeys except the winning jockey get a R50 000 fine for failing to ride their mounts to obtain the best possible placing.

this would quickly sort out this absolute shocking race riding.

shrek Wrote:

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> What will King of Pain go up to? If using any of
> the 3 that ran behind him he will go up close to a
> 120. Will his soft lead and the way he was able to
> dictate be taken into account?


After the race my first impression also was that the pace was slow, but (in the absence of sectional timing) is there any proof that the pace was suspect? Time recorded was 95.45 (according to TABGOLD run-ons) and that does not seem slow - according to Computaform the Class Avg is 95.75 :S

Looking at KoP's previous runs, it would seem that he ran his best races when handy - so yesterday with the blinkers the correct tactics (not sure if Bernhard took the initiative, or if he followed instructions) were used - he went to the front and he never stopped.

So for me he improved, and on a line through various others in the race, I'd rate that run at around 117 (Beach Beauty at 111, Yorker at 115, CTN at 111, Whiteline Fever at 110 and Jet Belle at 103

shrek Wrote:

---

> What will King of Pain go up to? If using any of
> the 3 that ran behind him he will go up close to a
> 120. Will his soft lead and the way he was able to
> dictate be taken into account?


I think if that race is run 10 times he would only win one of ten BUT it's in the records so if the handicapper is of the opinion that it is a false pace(result) then that goes to the integrity of Racing. I think they have no choice but to rate the race on the result not what could have been had there been a proper pace on. Bad riding dirties the form book and its time the stipes took action - I wonder if any of those referees made the Junket to Epsom where they would have seen the strong fractions set in those races

Maybe if you wrote my appeal, Rob, I would have won - I couldn't put it any better or clearer. The bottom line is that we hear all the long stories about the handicappers who should have no interference or restrictions, but then they do something like this.... They just show that they want to stop horses, or are scared to be wrong or that a horse may run above their official rating. This is proof of their mindset. It is unfair to guess.
In Trip Tease first three Turf runs he ran 3rd, 3rd, 2nd. The 5 horses that finished in front of him in those races have run in 25 turf races since then and have FAILED TO WIN A SINGLE RACE AMONGST THEM in those 25 runs ! (and Easy says he is very very decent and should be competing in stronger company- yeah, right....).
The Turf form is NOT NEARLY AS GOOD as the Sand form.

Louis, their handling of your appeal is ludicrous in my opinion:
Let's keep it as simple as possible-Trip Tease has not run to more than a 90 (at most) on turf. The rules of handicapping have elected to use a line horse as the method of rating so my question (and yours I guess) "what is the line horse that can justify a turf rating of 97".......there isn't one,therefore there is no evidence to support the decision they took-simple as that!

This is not rocket science but if the connections of Furtura had and won at Greyville,he would have carried 52kg on Saturday,pissed in and would now be the July Favourite

lg whats your feeling of black pepper getting an eight pound penalty for winning a handicap in Kimberly?

HH, thats what I am referring to when I write about mindset and that the system is failing.

Last year they lifted the major centres by 6 points and not the minor centres because of the "creep" that was happening and because the minor centres were too high. This year, they are knocking the minor centres. I have quite a few Kimberley examples. Its mindboggling, contradictory and THEY are creating, again, the very same situation this year, which they cited as being a problem, last year!?

They are pulling the line horse as far back as possible and in so doing, giving no relief to the line horse in terms of the population. The effect of their efforts is negative, in that it only gives the line horse relief against the 2 or 3 in front of it and those two or three, in turn, are punished against the population.

HH , have a look at Moggy's penultimate run when she won - the line horse, Break of Dawn is struggling to win, for months and months.....She is not the correct line horse. Moggy is the course and distance specialist, the second and third horses are 3 year olds, on the way up, but not superstars, at this point and evolving out of their wfa allowances monthly. They couldnt win, will be losing a point a month of wfa. Why use Break of Dawn as the line horse? She is crying for relief, for heavens sake! Mindset, mindset, mindset!
Give Moggy 3 for her win. Line horse Olive Leaf. Maybe / maybe not, a point to Ntombe as she was under sufferance on nett rating and then some relief to Break of Dawn, and behind her too.

To me, thats handicapping. To the handicappers, thats not it. They want to STOP horses, rather than weight them. Relief is hard to get, unless you run poorly. So, soon we will see funny games being played. And that cannot be good for racing.

The whole goal of MR was to provide relief for weaker horses. The EASY way to do it is to lumber the good, consistent horses, as much as possible. The more difficult, but PROPER way to do it is to provide relief more often, to those that need it, when this is obvious. Yes, penalise the consistent, but dont shorten their careers...or cause the connections to think twice about consistency....!

Black Pepper couldnt win in Gauteng. He only wins in Kimberley on his second attempt there. And gets 8 points. Maybe he is improving, lets see tomorrow, but lets not try and halt that improvement.

For the record, he is working very well at home and we can have no doubts about the rider...