Kenilworth Saturday 28th January -MET DAY

Goosen just sent me a video of it pissing doon, a km from course

We have had a nice bit of soaking rain in the southern suburbs, and no one is complaining as it is sorely needed. The forecast is for a clear day tomorrow. I don't expect the rain to have any appreciable effect on the going other than to take a little of the sting out the ground.
I find this a challenging card, too many races for one day, but some super contests in the big races.
Race 1: A number of horses have put up puzzlingly poor efforts at their last start ( Orion Quest, La Favourari, Rodney, Fire Master) after showing good form. Cuban Emerald improved last time, but is 3kg worse off with Never Settle for less than a length. Desert Fighter two disappointing runs in CT. I will have a small bet on Rodney, but glad this race is not in the exotics.
Race 2: Dutch Philip is reportedly something special but has to give weight all round and is too short a price for me. Kotzen has a strong hand with good debut winners Namibia and Princess Peach, as well as the well weighted Ostinato. Nanna's Anna could turn it around with Princess Peach in receipt of 3 kg. Call to Account comes from the same form line and should be respected. I see the value lying with Ostinato and Nanna's Anna at 12/1.

Race 3: A wide open race. Gold Image is very speedy, and is a narrow first choice from Wonderwall, but a case could be made for virtually any horse.
Race 4:Sergeant Hardy was super impressive last time, and is my clear first choice. Always in Charge is the main danger, with the enigmatic Cloth of Cloud the wild card.Live Life won a good race last time and should pick up a cheque. Elusive Path is improving and is another for quartets.
Race 5: William Longsword won a very good Guineas, and is the horse to beat, but a somewhat skinny price. Safe Harbour has been the model of consistency and the 2.5kg pull could prove decisive. Just Sensual has to overcome a wide draw, but is on the upgrade and would be no surprise if she were to win. She's a Giver has a good draw and could do it on her best form, but has been below par in CT so far. Singapore Sling was impressive in the Dingaans, and could put his disappointing Guineas effort behind him if running to that level here. African Night Sky is unexposed and should relish the step up in trip.

Race 6: Sean Tarry holds the cards here, with a slight preference for Trip to Heaven despite his penchant for losing ground at the start and Khumalo opting for Alice. Talk to the Stars has been disappointing since his great run at Scottsville, but at best is top class. Brothers Red Ray and Brutual Force are capable at best, but only the former has had a run recently. There are a few hard knockers that could surprise. Jo's Bond upset Alice in the Southern Cross, but is 2kg worse off for only half a length. Rivarine is very speedy and could pop up. I'll take just 1,2,14 for the pick 6.
Race 7: Silver Mountain would be a short priced favourite if not for the widest draw, and even so remains the one to beat. Nightingale and Alexis are similarly poorly drawn but capable at best. The market has priced Real Princess at 25/1, on the basis that she won't see out the trip. On pedigree, however, she ought to, and could give her dam a notable double on the day. Olma has great form at Greyville, and can't be discounted as a threat. Star Express is consistent and should be in the money. There is not much between the three 3year olds, and any of the three could step up here. We have Final Judgement running, and we are expecting a big run from her.

Race 8: The Derby has a disappointing turn out, with runners in the $m races, no entries from up country and Gold Standard opting for the Met. Horizon is coming on the right way and will enjoy the trip, but too skinny a price here. Table Bay looked something special when giving weight and a thrashing to the field in the Cape Classic, but has since looked more ordinary, and well beaten by William Longsword and Gold Standard who are now the leading 3yo colts. If he stays the trip, and on breeding he should, he could well win. Edict of Nantes ran well in the fast run Selangor, and should have no problem with the trip. His gallop was unimpressive at the Met gallops, and Anton Marcus has chosen Table Bay, but he gets the services of Detori, and is a huge runner if at his best. Elevated is another that should relish the step up in trip, and his Guineas run confirmed that he is a genuine Gr 1 level runner. He is massive value at 16/1. Zodiac Ruler has been running below his 2yo form, but at best is capable. Newlands is held by Horizon, but won't be far off them. The only fill, Captain Gambler, is not the best of the girls, but has a place chance.

Race 9: Legal Eagle was beaten by an exceptional performance by Smart Call last year, and I expect him to make amends this year. Marinaresco will press him all the way, and is the main danger. I have been taking doubles onto these two since the ante post opened. Captain America has been over priced, and I have covered on him at 28/1 and 5/1 the place. He loses his gr1 penalty this year, and ran a cracker in the QP. He was a good 3rd last year, and the 2kg drop brings him right into the picture. French Navy is in a similar boat, and also can't be ignored on 58kg. Whisky Baron is on the upgrade, and is likely better than his current rating, as he has not been pushed in his recent wins. However, he does need to step up a few lengths to win this, but would be no surprise if he does. Bela - Bela is a good filly but this is a tough field and she could place at best. Gold Standard has tumbled in the betting, ( he is another on which I took some cover at 20/1 ante post) and he is a very interesting runner. His trainer holds him in high regard, but he has to step up significantly to beat his elders. While I do not discount his chances, he is no value at the current 13/2.

Guys, can anyone help me please? Are there 2 bipots and 2 jackpots as well? Where can i see what is offered and in what race each one of these bets start? When does the 2nd pick6 start? So confusing with the 13 races, so your help will be appreciated.

most publications Peekay

Race 10: Ovidio stands out at the weights and is a banker for the second pick 6. Helderberg Blue could surprise on his best form, but he is not the most reliable. Zafira should make the frame.
Race 11: The last three races are all open handicaps, and upsets are likely. I like Catkin and Brilliant Crimson.
Race 12: We have Silvan Star running, and we expect a good run from her. She will enjoy the 2000m. Louisiana is consistent, and there is little between them on form. Jetano is better than her last run, and Nima and Skip a Beat were right on top of Louisiana in the Jamaica hcp. Katies Jay has a wide draw, but is well weighted here.
Race 13: Snaith has half the field, but which is his best? If I get this far would like the field in the second pick 6.

Thanks Peter D

You have read the rest, now read the best :silly:

R1: Very competitive - and most people will have different fancies; while every runner must have some sort of chance, my top 3 are Never Settle (very good comeback run) from Ribovar (I think that run behind Mombela gives him a big chance here) and Cuban Emerald (in good form but should be held by NS)

R2: Juveniles, so anything possible - however while Dutch Philip made an impressive debut and should be the one to beat, I think Nanna Anna (made a good debut and gets 5.5 kgs from the favorite) represents the value; BP to pick up big momentum should DP run a dirty 3rd :ohmy:

R3: Echo race 2, but more competitive, the juvenile fillies usually are advantaged by their sex allowance this time of year, but Gold Image gets only 0.5 kgs from her non-winning mail counterparts; so she is only a narrow first selection from Wonderwall and Captain My Captain (should also not be much between those two); however I suspect one would need quite a few to survive the BP and even the PA

R4: Sergeant Hardy deserves to be top of the boards, but needs to give both Live Life and Cloth of Cloud 2.5 kgs; Live Life put up a great performance last time and on my ratings is very well in with Sergeant Hardy, while Cloth of Cloud is hard to judge against those two; these 3 stand out imo from Always in Charge, Attenborough and Elusive Path - can't see anything else winning

R5: I'm not convinced about the Cape Guineas form (preparing face for egg); I think the danger to the two fillies could be Singapore Sling, who drifted like a barge after needing a replacement jock in the Cape Guineas - I think he is much better than that and from pole position is going to be right there; slight niggle about Safe Harbour is that she has had a few tough races since coming to the Cape while Just Sensual of course has the draw to contend with; some relatively unexposed sorts like African Night could surprise.

R6: I keep coming back to last year's race where there was less than a length between Gulf Storm, Brutal Force. Carry on Alice and Tevez; Gulf Storm has disappointed since that race, but gets blinkers back on and is really effective over this 1000 - can surprise again at even bigger odds than last year; Brutal Force has not had a run since, and riding arrangements suggest that he is not the stable elect, so I'm passing him by; only a fool can ignore Carry on Alice and she would probably be my first choice to include in the BP and PA; Tevez another who can't be ignored; for me I think the 1000 will be a challenge for all of Red Ray, Talktothestars and especially Trip to Heaven if he makes his customary slow start - none of these can be totally ignored though; Rivarine did win last time as expected, but the way he was hanging across the track does not bode well in this big field; not the worst race to go wide, so maybe also include Search Party and Talktothestars and Seventh Plain

R7: The draw makes Silver Mountain beatable - however the main dangers imo Nightingale, Alexis and Star Express have not drawn much better; the 3 yr olds imo are not getting enough weight from the older fillies - however both Lady of the House and Final Judgement have the advantage of great draws - makes for a very interesting race where runners like Captain's Flame and Goodtime Gal can also upset. I'm not convinced that Real Princess will stay, but if she does, she can surprise as well.

R8: One needs to make stand somewhere, and I think one can do much worse than going with Horizon; imo he ran to 100 in his penultimate run (last run he ran below that, but the slowish pace did not help him imo) and if there is any reasonable pace, I think he will win this; Table Bay although bred to stay, still needs to show he does, and the others imo have not yet come close to achieving a 3 figure rating - the filly is one to include in trifectas and quartets imo

R9: If one sides with Horizon in the previous race, one can afford to include a few here; not that I think it is necessary; I think Legal Eagle and Marinaresco will dominate the finish - the only worry I have is that a slow pace could be a problem especially for Marinaresco; Whisky Baron needs more improvement imo, Captain America I don't think has ever finished in front of LE, Bela-Bela has a tough task at the weights and I don't think the 3yr old is good enough at these weights; French Navy well in at the weights, and could be the dark horse if Marwing controls the pace from pole position.

R10: At first glance, Ovidio looks thrown in, but there is some form that suggests that Helderberg Blue can win his first race in 819 days :huh: really can't find anything else

R11: IF Fifty Cents can reproduce his last run in the QP, he will take a power of beating here; has his issues with pulling and hanging across the track, but Striker could be the key in relaxing him; if he fails, there are many looking to take advantage (all of Overshadow, Catkin, Star Chestnut, Brilliant Crimson, union Jack and Lineker)

By now I will be either broke or drunk or both - so time to do something else ....

Enjoy