Race 2 – Dutch Phillip 22/10
Very impressed with the speed he showed on debut, he knew straight away what to do there and I’m sure he’s come on and leaps and bounds from that win and should be able to give those fillies a good run for their money. It’d be nice for him to give What A Winter his first stakes win.
Race 3 – Sir Frenchie 8/1, Bold Respect 11/1
CTS Sprint – Sergeant Hardy 28/10
Super-consistent, tough as nails, quality horse. Showed his versatility by going down 2nd to Safe Harbour in the RtR and we know what she’s come out and done since. Then showed his class by thrashing his field over the minimum trip LTO. Should be ridden with a little more restraint by Fourie this time and he’ll be a massive contender for top honours. Very difficult to peg back once he gets in front.
I have a lot of respect for Cloth of Cloud and now I do think she’s a tad overpriced at 11/2 and I might be tempted to have a saver if she drifts further.
CTS Mile – William Longsword 2/1
Still kicking myself for missing out on him in the Guineas when I had him marked down but unfortunately his run in the Selangor lead me to others.
What a sensational win in the Guineas from that draw! Then he kicked in the straight and Gold Standard did everything to reel him in but couldn’t. Have a look at where Gold Standard runs later and I think the form speaks for itself. Anton’s chosen him over Just Sensual and even though I was always going to be with the colt myself, Anton confirms that choice. Anton knows how good Just Sensual is and he’s still hopped onto William and we know how highly he rates Just Sensual.
He’s a galloper so from that wide draw again you’d be likely to find him either leading or 2nd turning for home hopefully off a slow pace and he should kick for home and last it out. However too fast a pace could catch him out and help the fillies.
Another two I think are in with a shout should William fail and well over-priced IMO are African Night Sky @ 20/1 who’s still unexposed and has huge scope. The other is A New Dawn @ 33/1 who’s a very talented horse with a few issues but let’s not forget he finished 4th in the Selangor on just his 4th start beating William L even though that’s obviously not his run. Big value at 33’s IMO. So a few each-ways on these two will do as backup.
Cape Flying – Rivarine 7/1
Still improving as compared to others here who’ve reached their ceiling. Don’t know how he’ll shape in this company but willing to give him a go, especially at around 7/1. Also think Tevez is overpriced @ 18/1.
Majorca – Silver Mountain 4/1, Captain’s Flame 16/1
Cape Derby – Edict of Nantes 4/1, Newlands 7/1
Very honest horse with very consistent form. Went close to Gold Standard in the Selangor and that form’s held up. Was drawn in the car park in the Guineas, was way out of his ground turning for home and with the slow pace, had no hope in hell. Yet he still ran on powerfully for 5th. Really think that was a super effort, will appreciate the distance based on his last few runs and he must be in with a huge shout.
Newlands shouldn’t be able to trouble the market leaders on form but he’s always screamed derby-type to me. Goes 2000 for the first time which I think now is the perfect trip for him and definitely has the talent to pull this out of the bag if he puts his mind on the job.
Hard decision to ignore Horizon but 12/10 is a bit too short for me considering he hasn’t met the likes of EoN and Table Bay yet who’ve been running in GR 1’s and 2’s.
SunMet – Marinaresco 2/1, 5/2, 7/2, 4/1 and Whisky Baron 11/2
A lot of antepost bets on Marinaresco for me since betting opened. Added a little more when he drifted after the Queen’s Plate. Win or lose, pretty sad that he won’t race again in SA. This is his first start back over 10 furlongs since the July(11 furlongs) where he almost did the impossible and went past high-class horses like they were standing still.
There’s no doubt the fast pace flattered him in the Green Point and I think the Queen’s Plate was a more accurate reflection of his ability over the mile – no excuses – a lot of us got carried away after the Green Point but make no mistake, Marinaresco over the mile vs him over anything further are two different horses. If you look at his form up to a mile, he’s never won with ease like his wins over further. Just look at his Winter Guineas win vs the Winter Classic win to prove the point. His ability to quicken is amazing but you have to sit on him a bit in the straight rather than rush him to quicken straight round the turn which is why he took so long to get into his stride in the LQP and against the best milers in the country, you’ve got little chance. It was an impossible task considering his position but this has been his mission all along I’m quite sure.
Here will be a different story – he’s had the worst draws in all of the big races he’s contested. Now finally he gets some assistance. If Grant can keep him less than 6, 7 lengths off the front turning for home, I really think he’ll find his trademark finish and get up to win. I’m not worried about the pace as long as he’s handier than last time, which he should be. Anyway, nothing much to say other than I think he’s the best horse in the country over 2000m so let’s see.
I doubt he’s going to beat Marinaresco but can’t leave Whisky Baron unbacked when he’s done so well for me. Unbeaten after gelding – still not sure how good he is and that means dark horse. So I’ve had savers on him as he owes me nothing.
Another side note – If there’s to be a massive upset – I really hope one of my faves Captain America can pull it off – not too improbable if you consider last year’s run in the Met behind Legal Eagle.
Race 10 – Ovidio 28/10
Early prices were key as now honestly I don’t see much value at current prices. Even though I think William Longsword, Sergeant Hardy and Ovidio are very tough to beat, the current prices of 12/10, 18/10 and 14/10 are far too short for Met Day. My advice is you’re much better off looking for place value elsewhere in those races and there’s plenty. Good luck guys.
Last edit: 8 years 4 months ago by MasterOfMyFate.
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