Scottsville Sunday

gregorypillay123 wrote: I tend to agree with you a triple tempo as TOLTEC seems a good win bet,good draw and I prefer betting horse that continue to run second place and have 1 bad run out of placing as they tend to normally run very well afterwards.

TOLTEC for the punt on the nose then

I wont put the rent money on Toltec... too many chances.

Look at Bear Hug Fire Song and Its My Way. All seem to have lively chances.

With Tssesebe out i will change my selection.....Sorceress fighting off the attentions of light on her toes and dinner date

No mention was made of that one

Adams wrote: With Tssesebe out i will change my selection.....Sorceress fighting off the attentions of light on her toes and dinner date

One of the factors in my selections is speed, Over the years I have found that speed is only signifcant in the fastest rated horse on the field --- 2nd or 3rd is insignificant. This is also the case with many other indicators. On my initial run throough Sorceress received my 2nd highest speed rating, and was discounted. With the Scratching of Tssesebee that one came into contention. Although the other two have more scope to pass her at 1200m.

Of course speed only comes into play- as one 10th or so of the factors, when the race is truly run. The highest rated horse is also affected by when the figure was recorded, and whether it potentially represents a peak figure - was the horse pushed to the limit or not, since horses do not reproduce peak efforts in consecutive races. By selecting the CF highest rated speed horse you could get about a 30% strike rate, higher strike rate over routes. Then there are obvious class horses coming into a race which have been in easy company and exposed speed is not representative of their true ability.

Hope that explains that a little.

Offhand though this is a tough card, and I couldn't commit to anything with confidence - plus I have not yet factored in a number of runners on the card which only have form at other centres - and obviously those are always big contenders.

Race 8 - Dawn Calling 7/2

It is sad that i had to go to Sky Sports to get the information one needs

She is coming back to her best and i give this one a good winning chance (its all in the form)
however she has i would say two dangers in Miss Varlicious and Strategic Move

The former is fit and this could be her right distance now

Strategic Move is a runner here!I make her the biggest danger with a light weight of 52

But my selection is the class here and i am leaning slightly towards her especially that A Marcus rides.

mydada wrote: Race 8 - Dawn Calling 7/2

It is sad that i had to go to Sky Sports to get the information one needs

She is coming back to her best and i give this one a good winning chance (its all in the form)
however she has i would say two dangers in Miss Varlicious and Strategic Move

The former is fit and this could be her right distance now

Strategic Move is a runner here!I make her the biggest danger with a light weight of 52

But my selection is the class here and i am leaning slightly towards her especially that A Marcus rides.

from a class perspective you could be right:

2017-06-25 GREY G KZNB 1600 J P v'd Merwe 50 95 7-13 2 1.75 3/1 3/1 MATADOR MAN 94.10 200000

Horse has 100% in the money efforts at this distance and 75% top three in this distance category. being rested, and looking like this being a touch too sharp was a concern - and you never know if it's a look-see return to racing in preparation for bigger things.

On that measure, Neptune's Rain and Lunar Rush would have to be included as well - I was impressed with Neptune rains run behind Brave Mary - which i rate highly, this one is coming back to form - cannot really say how good it is, Lunar Rush - close up to Victory Takeover --- so it doesn't seem a straight forward race -- and one would end up having to choose something

In a sprint , choosing something usually points to the speed and that lies with Vision to Kill and Insingamoya - but this is one of those where class exists in some horses of which we haven't seen the full potential yet

Early betting moves show that in every race one or more Howell's runner is being supported .Indications that the stable is going to make killing today?or false moves by bookies?...

the fantasy wrote: Early betting moves show that in every race one or more Howell's runner is being supported .Indications that the stable is going to make killing today?or false moves by bookies?...

Queens Plain is the one that will win from the 19 runners the stable has entered on the day, will explain my dippy logic later.

Was up in pmb yday back in jhb today.....minimum yo no rain was very overcast thou. Bear hug ran a belter last time can go one better today with Bayern on this one that queen plain will win...def have a huge go

Since I find the card quite difficult will just be following for the entertainment value, and to straighten out some formlines --- cannot wait for turfontein tomorrow too see what freak show is dished up there

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Since we talking about rain. Neptune's Rain my punt for the day.

bayern wrote:

the fantasy wrote: Early betting moves show that in every race one or more Howell's runner is being supported .Indications that the stable is going to make killing today?or false moves by bookies?...

Queens Plain is the one that will win from the 19 runners the stable has entered on the day, will explain my dippy logic later.

No need to explain later Bayern

Thats my banker in all bets.

I have had bets yesterday on all those that I specifically mentioned in my previous post above