Scottsville Sunday

  • Adams
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Re: Scottsville Sunday

7 years 8 months ago
#691198
bayern wrote:
Adams wrote:
bayern wrote: Okay, who found Music World?

Pace was not on , favourite was clearly over-rated- Flying Silver was pulled out of the race , a fair result since under those conditions who could have found it -

I wouldn't write the favourite off just yet, the horse pulling the hardest was the favourite, we'll let time be the judge. My humble opinion, the scratching Diamante was a clever move by Dixon, one which did not pay off though, because had she stayed in the race, there would have been a much more "solid" pace to the race. The move almost paid off, unfortunately Queen's Plain expended a lot of energy fighting the jockey, and the weight told on Fantasy Lady.

You are spot on.......Queen's Plain impressed me, since I didn't think it would be anywhere in the race , fighting like that too, and exactly - had the pace been on I think she would have done better -- so definitely one to watch --- however with a strong pace, In The Grove could have proven a lot tougher in the race. But we see form unfolding daily, and it adds in the missing pieces to the puzzle :)

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  • Dean321
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Re: Scottsville Sunday

7 years 8 months ago
#691199
Dinner date X If Only .

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  • Adams
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Re: Scottsville Sunday

7 years 8 months ago - 7 years 8 months ago
#691200
LOL - had the wrong race: Nothing to choose between Dinner Date and Light On Her Toes on the short side of 1200, and about a length between Sorceress and Mara on the longer side of 1200m. So it's a gamblers race again. Sorceress or Mara should be able to come down the 200m successfully - I am leaning with Sorceress but it could be a humdinger between the 4, without other factors involved. Fiorella looks to have a lot to do just to get on par with these - but could be one of those unexposed class sorts who knows -- not really a race to go all out in. -- The market suggests Dinner Date and Mara to be involved but let's wait and see.
Last edit: 7 years 8 months ago by Adams.

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  • Muhtiman
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Re: Scottsville Sunday

7 years 8 months ago
#691201
mydada wrote: We fortunate to have one of the most knowledgeable horseman here in Kzn
Mr Bruce Le Roux kudos to him
.....yet a large amount of breeders and owners are still not supporting the sires he stands.....Just As Well is very well suited to the over kill of Mr P mares found in KZN...... :whistle:

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  • Tony T
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Re: Scottsville Sunday

7 years 8 months ago
#691202
Adams, where does, Jockeys ability or trainers form feature in your calculations ??

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  • Adams
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Re: Scottsville Sunday

7 years 8 months ago
#691204
Well done to those who were so confident , for some reason I had the race as a 1200m ----

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  • MasterOfMyFate
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Re: Scottsville Sunday

7 years 8 months ago
#691205
MasterOfMyFate wrote: Race 7 - Fiorella 5/2

I think she has a good winning chance tomorrow. There's a few classy fillies among this bunch but I think Fiorella is well-weighted here related to them. Tsessebe out makes it easier but she too had a very big weight. Fiorella was kept to 6 furlong in her first two starts and she now should thrive at the 7. Arcola was an oaks winner so Fiorella should be better the further she goes. I'm also hoping KDM had the choice between her and Miziara being the stable jock. If so, then this should mean he believes Fiorella is the better of the two, even with the weight against her.

Also will have a little bet on Isingamoya 7/1 in race 8. Another top race, the Howells fillies could easily win but there was a lot to like about Isingamoya's last win. Vision to Kill also worth a bet at her odds of 6/1

Nice win but the pace did not suit her at all. Took an age to get going but of course can't judge her too much on 7 furlong. Needs 8+

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  • Adams
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Re: Scottsville Sunday

7 years 8 months ago - 7 years 8 months ago
#691206
The trainer is probably the most important cog in the wheel :) Good trainers know their horses----Jockeys, are also very important.

Trainers Like M.de Kock, and some others defy mathematical form analysis --- but Just as you compile track profiles, you need to profile trainers.

Following jockeys or trainers though is likely a quick route to the poor house.
Last edit: 7 years 8 months ago by Adams.

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  • bayern
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Re: Scottsville Sunday

7 years 8 months ago
#691207
Adams wrote:
bayern wrote:
Adams wrote:
bayern wrote: Okay, who found Music World?

Pace was not on , favourite was clearly over-rated- Flying Silver was pulled out of the race , a fair result since under those conditions who could have found it -

I wouldn't write the favourite off just yet, the horse pulling the hardest was the favourite, we'll let time be the judge. My humble opinion, the scratching Diamante was a clever move by Dixon, one which did not pay off though, because had she stayed in the race, there would have been a much more "solid" pace to the race. The move almost paid off, unfortunately Queen's Plain expended a lot of energy fighting the jockey, and the weight told on Fantasy Lady.

You are spot on.......Queen's Plain impressed me, since I didn't think it would be anywhere in the race , fighting like that too, and exactly - had the pace been on I think she would have done better -- so definitely one to watch --- however with a strong pace, In The Grove could have proven a lot tougher in the race. But we see form unfolding daily, and it adds in the missing pieces to the puzzle :)

Adam, did you mean over-racing and not what you typed, then you not "writing off" the favourite, and i apologise.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.

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  • Adams
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Re: Scottsville Sunday

7 years 8 months ago
#691208
bayern wrote:
Adams wrote:
bayern wrote:
Adams wrote:
bayern wrote: Okay, who found Music World?

Pace was not on , favourite was clearly over-rated- Flying Silver was pulled out of the race , a fair result since under those conditions who could have found it -

I wouldn't write the favourite off just yet, the horse pulling the hardest was the favourite, we'll let time be the judge. My humble opinion, the scratching Diamante was a clever move by Dixon, one which did not pay off though, because had she stayed in the race, there would have been a much more "solid" pace to the race. The move almost paid off, unfortunately Queen's Plain expended a lot of energy fighting the jockey, and the weight told on Fantasy Lady.

You are spot on.......Queen's Plain impressed me, since I didn't think it would be anywhere in the race , fighting like that too, and exactly - had the pace been on I think she would have done better -- so definitely one to watch --- however with a strong pace, In The Grove could have proven a lot tougher in the race. But we see form unfolding daily, and it adds in the missing pieces to the puzzle :)

Adam, did you mean over-racing and not what you typed, then you not "writing off" the favourite, and i apologise.

before the race , i felt it was over rated and had a lot to do to beat only two runners in the race if there was a true pace - Flying Silver and In The Groove, One was pulled out, and the other was beaten by the pace . She did impress - but I still cannot say would have beaten those two if the pace was on and all else being equal. Trainer also confirmed that he thought the horse was done in by the pace, so that has to also apply to In The Groove. All i'm saying is she ran better than i had expected.

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  • mydada
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Re: Scottsville Sunday

7 years 8 months ago
#691209
Muhtiman wrote:
mydada wrote: We fortunate to have one of the most knowledgeable horseman here in Kzn
Mr Bruce Le Roux kudos to him
.....yet a large amount of breeders and owners are still not supporting the sires he stands.....Just As Well is very well suited to the over kill of Mr P mares found in KZN...... :whistle:

Apart from Just As Well what other sires does he own (or should that be stands) ?

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  • Muhtiman
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Re: Scottsville Sunday

7 years 8 months ago
#691210
Adams wrote: The trainer is probably the most important cog in the wheel :) Good trainers know their horses----Jockeys, are also very important.

Trainers Like M.de Kock, and some others defy mathematical form analysis --- but Just as you compile track profiles, you need to profile trainers.

Following jockeys or trainers though is likely a quick route to the poor house.
.....yet the biggest value..... is a fair horse from a smaller trainer with a keen but battling jock and connections that dont punt...... :dry:

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