HOLLYWOODBETS DURBAN JULY 2025 SATURDAY 05 JULY

we've discussed previously how YARDARM   @ 8 / 10   couldn't even find the FIRST FOUR PLACES   !!

i'd have a guess at maybe......    POCKET POWER   ???

Sealegs wrote:

That Met he won hasn't produced a single other winner to date. 
Legislate did not technically manage to win with 56.
Eight on Eighteen because of his high merit rating since the Met hasn't faced any proper opposition since , for obvious reasons. 

The only way he wins this is is if he's an exceptionally talented horse, as some have suggested. But I can't find any concrete evidence to substantiate that as yet. 

His odds are based on sentiment more than anything and presents very little value in my opinion. Aside from the weight hurdle, his running style makes him vulnerable as well. 
 

Only thing that is a worry is the pace.
Anticipate Native Ruler going to the front and setting the sectionals.

Think the further he goes, the further he wins.
Overseas campaign beckons after this season.

Quartet for the big one:
11 / 1,2,3,14,17 / 1,2,3,5,9,10,14,17 / F
 

Where can one get odds on the Hollywood site collapsing on Saturday? 

London News 14/10

Dynasty 14/10

Take notice of the weights carried by the first 3 in both results. 

Prish007 wrote:

Take notice of the weights carried by the first 3 in both results. 

Those races were run before the introduction of the Merit Rating system. Since MR were introduced, show me the horse that was out at the weights/under sufferance that won the July. The winners in the last 4 to 5 years were well weighted, not necessarily the best horses in their respective races. Cases in point, Power King, the 2015 winner, how many people found that? Conversely, Belgarion, the 2020 winner, looked to be a handicapping certainty.

I feel people are putting too much premium on the lower weighted horses in this year's race, yet they are out at the weights.

I understand there are exceptions to the rule, i'll stick with the (handicapping) rule.

Noted im not in the camp of the lightweights, i fancy Oriental Charm to go well. 8 0n 18 is the class horse in the field but his weight as a 3 year old is a bit of a worry and his style of running from of the pace wont be suited to the narrow greyville track with traffic.

Winner of Met, Cape Derby and Daily News not good enough for you ? Seems pretty exceptional to me !

8/18 is the best handicapped horse in the race. The fact that he is only 3 weeks away from being a 4yr means it has maximized the 3yr old wfa gains and grown and strengthened up to 515 kg horse.

He is supposed to give the 53kgs at least 7kgs, instead he is given then a max of 4. He is only supposed to be 1.5 kgs out to the top weights, instead he is 3kgs. In fact if the race was 3 weeks latter this swing would be greater as he would of been top weight and Oriental Charm would of carried 59kgs, all 4kg swing.

Everyone has pros and cons, il stick to handicapping, 129 8/18 to a 108 Immediate Edge is crazy with 4 kgs. One could argue if 8/18 skipped this race and won Champions Cup he would be 131, hence it is difficult to speculate how good a horse is when it is avoiding races that drive the mr up.

The 60kg horses are

Right now he's the best exposed 3yr old up to 2000m, winning on Saturday puts him into the greatly exceptional category. 

To put it into perspective, when Horse Chestnut won the Met by 8 lengths beating previous July winner Classic flag, that was exceptional. 

Just an opinion of course!!! 😁