A friend gave me a call, and explained why Immediate Edge will win the race. Briefly, the reasoning is, at the weight difference, 8 on 18 carrying 57.0kg, and IE carrying 53.0kg, 8 on 18 must be 8 lengths better than IE, and many are of the opinion he is not.
If we look at their merit ratings, (8 on 18 = 129) and (IE = 108) but many are of the opinion IE is better than rated - let's grant he is. Let's take IE's race rating (RR) of 118 (as per Computaform) and apply it to 8 on 18's merit rating of 129, can we agree IE should carry 51.5kg, and we should still "get the 8 lengths difference".
All things being equal, if we alter one side of the equation, we should alter the other by the same alteration, therefore, using their race ratings (RR), (8 on 18 = 131) and (IE = 118), in theory they should carry, (8 on 18 = 57.0kg) and (IE = 50.5kg), and we still "get the 8 lengths difference".
Appreciate horses do not run on paper, by all accounts, 8 on 18 should finish ahead of Immediate Edge.
Dons helmet and flak jacket for the anticipated barrage.
In my opinion ,I can't see Immediate Edge finishing in the first half of the field .The Jubilee formline of winning a group3 in my opinion is weak ,there are some hard knockers in this race that gets my vote ahead of Immediate Edge.
