Fancy winning REALLY BIG MONEY?

With the Met now a matter of record Super 14 effectively becomes the next big thing with less than 2 weeks to go to kickoff :

Since my last post there has not been too much movement in the betting according to trades completed on Interbet. The leading contenders remain as follows :

Crusaders R24460
Brumbies R7154
Bulls R5923
Stormers R3562

I suppose it is inevitable that there is going to be a bit of pressure on the Stormers and I note they have shortened from 16/1 to 12/1 in the last week on the back of reasonably encouraging performances in the warmup games. Add to that the reality that yours truly (very optimistically I might add) successfully fired a massive double into them via River Jetez and you can expect some action as the turf accountants look to take back.

For me timing now becomes an issue. the Stormers kick off against the Lions in Johannesburg. This is a 50/50 call as to whether they are up to winning this fixture. If they succeed they then have a rash of home games. Success in those should see their odds tumble with the opportunity for me, as backer, to profit without even vaguely concerning myself as to whether they can make the semis or win the tournament. Decisions, decisions.

What does the market look like after Week 1 ? :

Lifted from Interbet :

Crusaders R36,056 (28/10)
Bulls R10,185 (5/1)
Brumbies R8,654 (5/1)
Stormers R3,792 (9/1)
Waratahs R1,479 (12/1)
Blues R1,071 (14/1)

Clearly there is now consistent heat on the Crusaders ( 28/10 ) although I cannot declare myself ecstatic over their performance on Saturday. Nevertheless, with a number of All Blacks still resting and an injury list of nil from the encounter, the 5 pointer is welcome.

I thought the Bulls (5/1) and Hurricanes (6/1) were the most impressive over the weekend although both might be mildly concerned at their defensive lapses.

The Chiefs ( 8/1 ) and Waratahs (12/1) can both count themselves fortunate to have won their respective matches. The Waratahs, who are usually bright starters, were diabolical and must be wondering how they ended up in front on the scoreboard against a much improved Reds outfit. The Chiefs did huge damage to the Sharks (16/) in a match where the lead changed 3 times in the last 4 minutes.

The Sharks really need to sit Bismarck Du Plessis and the majority of the pack down and s-l-o-w-l-y explain how the rules are applied. Du Plessis is a walking disciplinary liability in much the same way as Schalk Burger can be whilst none of the Sharks could possibly have watched any of the preceding matches or they would not have been so clueless in the breakdown situations. Massive 4 pointer for the Chiefs.

The Stormers should be ashamed of themselves for leaving Gauteng with only 4 points. Any top Super 14 side would have wrapped up the bonus point by halftime and then cleared the bench in the second. Irrespective as to the the Lions 'comeback' in the second half the Stormers dithered and dallied against the 'no name branders' where a pofessional outfit would have got the white flag from the Lions after 40 minutes.

Amongst the losers both the Reds and Highlanders stood out. Expect both sides to upset a good number of teams if they can maintain their improved starts. It is difficult to evaluate the Brumbies until Giteau and Elsom return.

What to do next ?

Long term it appears that the Bulls, Crusaders, Brumbies, Chiefs and Hurricanes are the picks.

Wooden spoon for ineffectiveness goes to the Waratahs - can do much better. A repeat of last Saturday will have the Stormers licking their lips this weekend. But rely on the Stormers at your peril. It seemed to me that their 'much improved' front row spent a good deal of its time munching the turf last Saturday.

If you are not already in the play then your match pick for the weekend into your long term choice is the way to go.

Best value today is probably a toss up between the Chiefs at 8/1 or the Hurricanes at 6/1.

Weekend match picks will be Bulls/Brumbies and Stormers/Waratahs for local fans.

I know its greedy but if you like the SA sides then the treble Bulls x Stormers x Your long term pick ( as long as it is not one of the two aforementioned ) could connect. Reason? Both are encountering visiting sides in their first outings after travelling - which history suggests is when they are most vulnerable.

Very interesting thread, Garrick.

Am I correct in that you would be using a betting exchange for this, since you talk of laying of some of your bet when the odds move in your favour? Without an exchange, I suppose you could back some of the opposition to enact a similar type of trade.

Sabre - If one is lucky enough to connect a double with a local SA bookmaker it is common practise to transact a 'take back' with that bookmaker.

As you can deduce from the above posts I tend to use primarily doubles ( but sometimes longer 'all to come' bets ) to accumulate 'stock' as I like to call it. A number of posters incorrectly assume that a large bankroll is needed for this exercise. But, in fact, these are credit transactions which are only settled on conclusion of the events in play.

To the best of my knowledge it is not illegal to 'lay back' a portion of a bet where the price has shortened as earlier legs have connected. I, together with a number of prominent punters, have done it since year dot. What is illegal -unless you hold a bookmakers license -is to offer odds on horses/teams to lose/win ( a la betting exchanges ) where no existing live bet exists.

Without wishing to sound arrogant - I could not have 'got on' in some of the volumes I have struck without a tacit understanding that I would be amenable to a mutually acceptable take back at some point in the exercise. As it should be every punters primary objective to have bets 'to nothing' this arrangement is both sensible and convenient. It also highlights a point I have tried to make to punters for years - bookmakers are not your enemy. They are faciltators who offer a service AT A PROFIT MARGIN. It is the responsibility of the punter to become educated as to how markets, pricing, percentages and probability work instead of being continually blinded by your fancy/pet stable/pet jockey etc.

For example - Favourites are like cholesterol. There is both good and bad cholesterol. Almost all punters continually follow favourites in one form or another so are highly unlikely to win in the long term as it is akin to always paying the HIGHEST price for a commodity or service.

By way of an example and to prove that I am not merely spouting theory I detail hereunder one aspect of my current Super 14 business :

I very seldom back horses for any reason other than 'for fun' or because I am bored. The risks are just too high when measured against most local odds on offer in SA. UK is much better but that is a totally separate subject.

As you will see elsewhere on this site I took a double in the Met which I can now reveal read as follows :

River Jetez x Stormers : R 2,000,000 - R 7,000. I also took R 10,000 - R600 the straight punt to cover my R 7,000 double stake.

It is a matter of record that the first leg arrived - much to my amusement I might add as I really took it as a 'gelukskoot'.

So I now have R 2,000,000 - R 7,000 the Stormers or, put another way, I have backed the Stormers at 288/1. They are currently quoted at 9/1. I have not yet laid back any of this bet. Nor have I been asked yet. As the bet is technically 'free' by virtue of the R10,000 - R600 punt there is no real pressure. At least not on me. But somewhere out there is a R2 million liability and the pressure is building as long as the Stormers deliver.

Will they win the Super 14 ? On the one game I have seen to date I doubt it. But if I am able to lay back a portion of the bet I will still win if they lose.....

Garrick

Iam new to this site...excellent thread, do you have a rugby background?

Besides your outright bet do you play rugby on a week to week basis...if so the site below can help you further analyse the weekly match ups.

www.pickandgo.info/

Thanks for the detailed reply, Garrick. I have little to no experience punting with bookies, so most of what you've said is new to me.

FC - My rugby background is limited to a simple enjoyment of the game and the fact that I have warmed the same seat at Newlands since my dad first took me there in 1957 when I was only 5 years old.

I played at school ( Bishops ) but unfortuantely got a bad case of encephalitis when I was 11 which cost me my long range vision - a bit of a problem as I played flyhalf.

After a lifetime of watching rugby I suppose one has to learn something. I am also fortunate in that I have been able to learn betting technique from highly skilled punters such as Robert Bloomberg as well as some talented bookmakers.

Garrick, thanks for the reply, all this is very interesting. Iam relatively new to the game and enjoy picking up things along the way.

On another note, whats the latest regarding rugby and the new staduim in Cape Town, at the Sharks there are thousands who have "permanent" seats from as far back as the 2nd division days, however they could lose this right if the transfer happens to the new staduim as the soccer people would be given 1st option.

FC - I think it is inevitable that WPRFU will move to Green Point quite soon after the WC. It would be difficult to sustain the new stadium without the support of rugby whilst the payoff for the oval ball game would be the creation of about another 20,000 seat capacity over and above what Newlands can offer. And to say nothing of the more modern facilities.......

I personally would not bother to make the transition as I have found the standard of local rugby to be completely unacceptable since as far back as 1999 - probably the last time when the Stormers could be deemed to have been a force. WP in the modern area are also a bit of a joke. And this despite the success of local representation in the Varsity Cup.

In any event I find most sport more enjoyable on my 63" TV screen ( yes - size does matter ) in full HD. With my 4 season tickets costing about R7k per annum that will pay comfortably for top of the range technology every 5 years. So Mr Wagner and his team of terminal under-achievers can have my share as soon as the move is decided.

Good morning Garrick and must say enjoying this thread.

I am now becoming hooked on the rugby and have been following the Bulls, difficult not to when you live in Pretoria and they have a hell of a strong team, but I am sure it will be a different story when they have to leave Fort Loftus to travel overseas.

My question is that the Reds beat the Crusaders well?

But we have 7/2 Bulls 4/1 Crusaders and almost 50/1 the Reds

Are the Crusaders a bit short and the Reds a bit value?

Forgot to ask the team that beat the Reds? they must also be considered a decent side and in the running? Dont have the name, but as I said only starting to get hooked.

Scotia - would have answered earlier but the site has been down.

After week two Interbet betting turnovers offer interesting insights into the tournament :

Crusaders R36,591 (33/10)
Bulls R11,556 (28/10)
Brumbies R11,654 (6/1)
Stormers R3,832 (7/1)
Hurricanes R0! (9/2)

The most startling statistic is that not one rand has been wagered on the Hurricanes despite their solid start to the season.

The Bulls have shortened to favourites although this is not really reflected in betting turnover. Yet.

The Brumbies continue to attract attention despite being well beaten by the Bulls at Loftus. Clearly the shrewdies still need to be convinced that the Bulls can win on the road and were sufficiently impressed by the first 40 minutes from the Brumbies (after only arriving in SA on Wednesday ) to believe that they are still live title contenders.

No action on the Crusaders after their abysmal performance against the Reds. But as bookmakers are probably loaded to the gills with Crusaders bets there was no rush to push them out to pre-tournament prices on the basis of one performance.

Stormers have shortened to 7/1 without adding to their Interbet trade totals. In two rounds they have inexcusably left two bonus points on the table so languish in fourth position when they should be joint top of the table with the Bulls. Clearly the market still needs to be convinced although oddsmakers are not offering any bargins.

What else do the statistics tell us ?

It is possible to lose 4.5 matches and make it into the semis. ( the .5 refers to a draw). So theoretically it is not yet necessary for anyone to panic – no matter who you have backed.

Nevertheless – I think it is fair to say that it is already unlikely that the following teams will win the Super 14 :

Lions, Western Force.

The following teams, based on what we have seen to date yet ignoring their upset potential in selected games, are getting close to following the abovementioned into the abyss :

Cheetahs, Sharks, Highlanders, Blues, Waratahs.

The remainder can all regard themselves as runners until the weather clears further.

Surprise package of the tournament to date has been the Reds. They proved their unlucky losing performance against a listless Waratahs side was not a fluke by demolishing the Crusaders. Unfortunately they lost their captain and (vital) lock in doing so – making a huge dent in their future prospects. It also remains to be seen whether they travel well. And by ‘travel well’ I am not referring to how much alcohol they can consume or hotel damage they can wreak. Clearly ADT must go on high alert when Quade Cooper comes to town.............

Interestingly the market also remains relatively unimpressed by the Chiefs – who have done little wrong in harvesting 9 points away from home. However they seem to be picking up injuries and suspensions at an above average rate.

If the Sharks succumb to the Crusaders this weekend it might be worth remembering the following ; Last year the Chiefs lost their first three on the trot yet still made it into the final. I am not suggesting that the Sharks could emulate this achievement but what I am saying is : It’s still early days. However – the Sharks look ominously on track to challenge their 2005 Super 14 record when they won only one game all season.

Anyone who followed the suggested bet :Bulls x Stormers x Your long term pick last week should have built up attractive additional ‘stock’. The really shrewd punters would not have missed the opportunity to use the Crusaders as the ‘long term pick’ after their Friday defeat and subsequent drift. It’s all about pressure and you can’t afford to doze off.

Brilliant Garrick, glad I asked

cheers!