Fancy winning REALLY BIG MONEY?

Thanks again Garrick, would enjoy a Bulls win and a Crusaders loss but will again enjoy a couple of games, cheers!

After round 8 Interbet volumes look as follows :

Crusaders (22/10) R66,557 +1% over last week
Bulls (3/1) R56,414 +14% over last week
Stormers (7/1) R11,625 +26% over last week
Brumbies (8/1) R18,876 No change over last week
Chiefs (10/1) R16,716 +3% over last week
Hurricanes (40/1) R1,233 No change over last week
Waratahs (10/1) R3,725 +243% over last week
Reds (25/1) R942 No change over last week
Blues (20/1) R1,770 +2% over last week

Biggest % volume, albeit off a small base, was the Waratahs. Although they have leapfrogged to the top of the table they have played one extra game and, to date, the market has been singularly unimpressed by them.

Biggest market mover has been the Blues whose price was predictably clipped from 33/1 to 20/1 following their dismantling of the Bulls. In some instances the Blues are trading as short as 16/1 - a price possibly to be confirmed this weekend against the Stormers.

The Crusaders can count themselves fortunate to have escaped from Wellington with the draw. In doing so they effectively snuffed out the Hurricanes as 2010 contenders.

As mentioned a couple of weeks ago the Super 14 looks likely to create a massive logjam for position 4 in the next few weeks. There are a number of apparently delusional commentators talking up the chances of the Sharks still qualifying. I am not criticising their loyalties but rather their grasp of arithmetic. I had previously believed that Tellytrack held exclusive rights to spew factually inaccurate nonsense. Clearly I have been wrong. But to qualify the Sharks effectively now need to harvest 5 points from each and every remaining match to qualify - something they have been unable to do all season.

Where does long term value now lie?

Crusaders at 22/10 seem correctly priced although a 5 pointer against the Waratahs on Saturday accompanied by a Bulls defeat would see a massive reduction in their odds come Monday.

The Bulls need a win over the weakened Chiefs to restore confidence. Another loss could see them blow right out to their ante-post level of 9/2.

The Brumbies look decent value at 8/1 with the Cheetahs likely to gift them 5 on Saturday.

The Waratahs are not too attractive at 10/1 considering that 16/1 was freely available 2 weeks ago. They also tend to struggle against the Crusaders so could end up sliding down the log as fast as they came up.

Chiefs look right at current levels with a big injury list allied to a suspect bench. Blues could/should progress but lack consistency. Reds remain an enigma.

This weekend:

CHIEFS VS BULLS

If a team is really as good as its last match the Bulls will lose. But Super 14 does not work that way.

Chiefs have the ghosts of the 2009 final to exorcise. Bulls have 'away from home' to overcome. Both look mentally fragile right now. Last week I suggested the double : Bulls to lose each of their next two matches. The first leg has connected but I am not brimming with confidence that the second leg will follow through as I am far from convinced that the Chiefs have enough grunt up front or can secure ANY possession from their lineout men.

HIGHLANDERS VS WESTERN FORCE

Should be a tough scrap. Highlanders. Just.

BLUES VS STORMERS

This is a really interesting clash as the Stormers often go well against the Blues. But - to be fair - I have never seen such a talent laden back division produce as little as the Stormers do. Nevertheless I expect the Stormers to improve on last week's somewhat unlucky loss whilst I am unsure as to whether the Blues will be able to raise their game to last week's level again.

CRUSADERS VS WARATAHS

A couple of seasons ago the Crusaders met a strong Waratahs side in the semis and put a cricket score past them. I think the Waratahs have issues playing in Christchurch. Crusaders to win. And I have a feeling it won't be close.

BRUMBIES VS CHEETAHS

Even the Brumbies should improve on their poor bonus point record in this clash. It's embarrassing that a side which shows plenty of heart in SA is so gutless away.

LIONS VS REDS

Even the 'wooden spooners' win odd matches. Lions are back home and rested. Player resources are boosted by the return of Wikus van Heerden. It may not be this week but somebody is going to trip over this side shortly.

The question here is : How much did the Sharks take out of the Reds last week?

Thanks again Garrick, again looking for a Crusaders loss and they should have lost last week and the Bulls to get back on the winning ways. <

A good start to the weekend for scotia <

After round 9 Interbet volumes look as follows :

Crusaders (22/10) R66,607 +0,07% over last week
Bulls (2/1) R68,914 +22% over last week
Stormers (7/1) R13,639 +17% over last week
Brumbies (7/1) R18,876 No change over last week
Chiefs (33/1) R16,916 +1% over last week
Hurricanes (50/1) R1,233 No change over last week
Waratahs (10/1) R4,228 +13% over last week
Reds (16/1) R942 No change over last week
Blues (33/1) R1,870 +5% over last week

The Bulls have attracted the most support following on from their commendable win over the Chiefs last week. Interestingly local oddsmakers are still happy to lay 2/1 whereas most international sites have them solid at 16/10. Clearly our local market has got wind of the fact that Scotia fancies them - akin to a horse carrying an extra stone!

Where does value lie ?

At 2/1 there must be juice in the Bulls. Same applies to the Stormers at 7/1 and the Reds at 16/1. The remainder make no appeal this week.

Nevertheless there are some fascinating clashes this weekend :

CHIEFS VS STORMERS

The Stormers have every chance of following up on their excellent performance against the Blues last week against a severely weakened Chiefs side. Nevertheless it remains a concern that they have consistently scorned 4 try bonus point opportunities in no less than three matches so far this year. Last week they scored their third try with about 20 minutes left on the clock yet appeared nonchalant in pursuing that priceless fifth point thereafter.

I am always reluctant to predict a comfortable victory for this franchise but everything appears to favour a victory for them this weekend.

BRUMBIES VS HURRICANES

For me the Brumbies lack something this year. As, for that matter, do the Hurricanes. Although home ground advantage etc., points to the Brumbies a win for the Hurricanes would be no Act Of God.

BLUES VS FORCE

Which Blues side will show up? Not for me 2/7 against a steadily improving Force side. This could go either way.

CRUSADERS VS CHEETAHS

With websites suggesting that Carter may not play whilst a number of other players are rotated +29,5 Cheetahs on the handicap might have some appeal. The actual result is a foregone conclusion but the Crusaders as an attacking option have disappointed somewhat.

REDS VS BULLS

14/10 Reds looks quite attractive. Form studiers will argue that the Reds had to travel - which is true. But the Bulls also had to travel from NZ to Aus albeit a negligible trip by comparison. However - McKenzie is one of the better coaches around and understands better than most what his pack has to do to topple the Bulls. The backs can look after themselves and probably outclass the Bulls on current form. Certainly they boast the best 'in form' half back pairing in the 2010 competition. And Australian teams so often are able to bring something to a clash against South African opponents ( when at home ) which the latter battle to deal with.

But what really amazes me is that the Bulls still manage to send out a virtually unchanged 22 each week without them running out of steam.

Game of the weekend?

LIONS VS SHARKS

Although the Sharks believe they can still qualify they need to start off with a 5 pointer against the Lions. Which pretty much everybody else - barring the Stormers - have managed. You may prefer to watch a Premiership match instead........................

Attractive options this weekend :

Stormers x Long Term Pick

And for the braver amongst you :

Reds x Long Term Pick

Cheetahs +29,5 x Long Term Pick

For the lunatics there is a killer quad :

Stormers x Hurricanes x Cheetahs +29,5 x Reds

Thanks again Garrick ........go the Bulls (tu)

After round 9 Interbet volumes look as follows :

Crusaders (2/1) R103,377 66+% over last week
Bulls (2/1) R78,458 +17% over last week
Stormers (7/2) R19,942 +46% over last week
Brumbies (14/1) R18,876 No change over last week
Hurricanes (80/1) R1,253 +1% over last week
Waratahs (10/1) R4,228 No change over last week
Reds (10/1) R3,242 + 305% over last week
Blues (25/1) R2,000 +6% over last week
Sharks (50/1) R1,509 No change over last week

There have been a number of big betting moves in the last 7 days:

The Crusaders' 66% increase represents the biggest volume in any one week since the tournament started. The market has finally woken up to the Reds although the actual volume traded is relatively small. The Stormers, too, attracted interest.

This weeks' review is a day earlier as there are a number of issues to consider :

Trying to identify the semi-finalists and their likely log positions at the conclusion of the Super 14 is rather like trying to pick a future champion at the Yearling Sales – there is a lot of fact available allied to an incredible amount of possibility.

There are very few ‘soft’ matches left for sides to pick up relatively easy victories with the likelihood of a 4 try bonus point.

As this is one of the last occasions where there may well be long term value lurking unnoticed let’s look at the prospects for the sides that can still ( theoretically ) make the top 4 or beyond:

Bulls
v Lions at Loftus
v Sharks at Loftus
v Crusaders at Loftus
v Stormers at Newlands

Bulls should be good for a 5 pointer this weekend. The following week promises a brutal encounter if the Sharks are still alive; the latter will need a 5 pointer off the Bulls. The Crusaders follow – which could go any way but is unlikely to produce a 4 try bonus for either side. Lastly the Bulls must travel to Newlands which, based on recent history and current form, they are only a 50/50 chance to win at best.

The ‘derby/top of the log factor’ in the last three matches is crucial.

Crusaders

v Force in Perth
v Stormers at Newlands
v Bulls at Loftus
v Brumbies in Christchurch

If they keep their discipline they should be good for a 5 pointer against the Force. BUT this franchise has struggled against the Force in Perth so may have to settle for a win without the bonus. Next up is the Stormers where they have lucked out big time. Why? Because they will travel from Perth at the same time as the Stormers travel from Brisbane – which is even further. So the travel advantage which the Stormers should have enjoyed is neutralised whilst the Crusaders play first off at sea level as opposed to altitude. Next up is the Bulls – at best a 45/55 chance but certainly not a match the Crusaders are incapable of winning as pretty much EVERYTHING should be up for grabs. Lastly they return home to meet the Brumbies whom they should be able to beat although a four try bonus might be too much to expect.

Stormers

v Reds in Brisbane
v Crusaders at Newlands
v Sharks in Durban
v Bulls at Newlands

Possibly the toughest run in of all. Nevertheless the Stormers appear to be benefitting from following in the wake of the Bulls as both the Blues and Chiefs seemed to have been softened up before meeting the Stormers. However - the buoyant Reds will be an extremely tough nut to crack and may well have the beating of the Cape side. Then they return to Cape Town to meet the Crusaders – another monumental task. Thereafter on to Durban to trade blows against the Sharks. Lastly back home to face the Bulls. If they make it to the semis and have to travel I fear their chances will be very slim.

Reds

v Stormers in Brisbane
v Brumbies in Canberra
v Hurricanes in Wellington
v Highlanders in Brisbane

A win against the Stormers is effectively non-negotiable for this franchise as they travel to meet the Brumbies the following week in what is likely to be the defining moment for both teams. Thereafter they face the Hurricanes in Wellington and finish with a relatively undemanding fixture against the Highlanders at home.

Waratahs

v Brumbies in Sydney
v Highlanders in Invercargill
v Chiefs in Hamilton
v Hurricanes in Sydney

If there is such a thing as an ‘easy passage’ then this is it. First up is a real grinder against the Brumbies where, at least, they have home ground advantage. Two winnable fixtures against the disappointing Highlanders and injury weakened Chiefsfollow. The toughness of their last fixture against the Hurricanes may depend upon whether the Hurricanes are still ‘alive’ or not.

Brumbies

v Waratahs in Sydney
v Reds in Canberra
v Highlanders in Canberra
v Crusaders in Christchurch

Two very ‘heavy’ derbies and a tough away fixture against the Crusaders make it highly likely that this somewhat disappointing side will not qualify in 2010.

Blues

v Sharks in Durban
v Cheetahs in Bloemfontein
v Lions in Johannesburg
v Chiefs in Auckland

If you are looking for a bolter then look no further than the Blues.

They fortuitously start their SA tour at sea level against the Sharks. Both sides need a 4 try win to stay alive. The type of match this requirement will necessitate might favour the Blues more than the Sharks. If they fluke the required win in Durban then the Cheetahs & Lions become a lot more than mere pipe dream fantasies. They finish against the free running Chiefs at home – likely to produce another try fest.

It is not inconceivable that the Blues take 20 points from the last 4 matches –which would take them to 45 points and a likely playoff spot.

Sharks

v Blues in Durban
v Bulls at Loftus
v Stormers in Durban
v Force in Durban

The Sharks do not traditionally produce when confronted with ‘have to’ scenarios. So it is difficult to predict how they will fare. But with 5 losses under the belt already expectations of a semi final berth are pretty ambitious. Nevertheless – expect big performances in the two derby games as they boast sufficient beef to blunt both the Bulls and Stormers’ packs. But behind the scrum they remain disjointed and ineffectual this season.

Hurricanes

v Highlanders in Dunedin
v Chiefs in Wellington
v Reds in Wellington
v Waratahs in Sydney

If the Hurricanes were to rise from the dead against the Highlanders and Chiefs they would still have to overcome the vastly improved Reds at home and then travel to meet the Waratahs in Sydney. Maybe not in 2010 where something internal seems to have been amiss with this side the whole season.

However – this franchise IS a regular semi-finalist so does know how to get there even if historically they appear to have lacked the necessary ability to actually win it.

Chiefs

v Cheetahs in Hamilton
v Hurricanes in Wellington
v Waratahs in Hamilton
v Blues in Auckland

The Chiefs appear never to have quite recovered from their beating at Loftus in the 2009 final. Now decimated by injuries their final three matches loom large. Requiring a full 20 points to have any sort of a chance it seems likely that a 2010 semi final spot is no longer within their reach.

Where does the value lie ?

The Bulls & Crusaders both seem correctly priced with the Bulls possibly offering better value given that they are now back home for some of their fixtures.

The Stormers are overly short given their tough finishing programme.

The Australian contenders are quite difficult to fathom as they have to play each other and derbies throw up spook results.

The only attractive option this week seems to be the 5/2 on offer for the Blues to make the semis. Alternatively take the 25/1 and trade out later if they progress. To repeat the old adage - You cannot do damage backing long shots!

Superb stuff Garrick you should be on that show with Neil Andrews

txs

Nice post Garrick

The 5/2 about the Blues making the last 4 is very short though.

There was 12/1 overseas and I took 10/1 locally earlier in the week and as of last night there was still 7/1 out there.

As you say the key will be this weekend against the Sharks and if they make that they can kick on although I always treat them with respect and they are the sort of side who could do the hard yards against the Sharks and then go and lose to the Lions.

Enjoy the rugger

Morning Brent, sorry should have says you should be on the same show as Brent Graham (tu)

After round 10 Interbet volumes look as follows :

Crusaders (3/1) R103,377 +23% over last week
Bulls (14/10) R99,914 +22% over last week
Stormers (4/1) R32,072 +60% over last week
Brumbies (66/1) R19,576 +3% over last week
Hurricanes (50/1) R1,856 +48% over last week
Waratahs (10/1) R5,894 +39% over last week
Reds (6/1) R4,788 + 47% over last week
Blues (80/1) R2,000 No change over last week
Sharks (50/1) R1,509 No change over last week

As a result of the Crusaders defeat last week there have been some seismic shifts in the betting. The Bulls have predictably shortened in to 14/10 and, at this stage, look to be on track for the semis with a strong probability for a home fixture.

Despite their lofty positions on the log both the Crusaders and the Stormers could see their semi final aspirations severely dented if either were to drop this weekend's vital clash.

The Reds continue to lurk and the market is, at last, starting to show interest in their chances.

The remainder remain embroiled in an almighty bunfight for a possible fourth spot.

This week we will focus on the top end of the board in our search for value as there are some quite amazing contradictions in the betting to be exploited if you can catch it correctly............

The Bulls are probably correctly priced at 14/10 - a price which oddslayers could possibly have got away with last week as their clash against the Lions looked to be a foregone conclusion.

The real issue this week is the pricing disparity between the Crusaders and the Stormers - who are quoted at 3/1 and 4/1 respectively. This may not appear remarkable until you see the betting for their clash this Friday evening - where the Stormers are an 11/20 shot against the Crusaders 15/10. How did they arrive at this pricing?

Let's look at their remaining fixtures :

Stormers :

v Crusader at Newlands
v Sharks in Durban
v Bulls at Newlands

Crusaders

v Stormers at Newlands
v Bulls at Loftus
v Brumbies in Christchurch

If we factor in the 'normal' home vs away expectations then the Stormers should read W,L,W for their last three fixtures whilst the Crusaders should read L,L,W for their last three.

Given that the market ( whilst quoting the Stormers an 11/20 shot ) expects the Stormers to beat the Crusaders then we must logically expect the Bulls to be about 1/3 to repeat the same medicine next week. Assuming the Crusaders win their last outing against the Brumbies I fail to see how they are quoted 3/1 whereas the Stormers are 4/1!

Now if we weigh up the form then the picture changes and opportunity emerges :

Both sides have been beaten by the same teams - Western Force & Reds. The Stormers also lost to the Brumbies whom the Crusaders are yet to play whilst the latter drew ( very fortuitously ) against the Hurricanes. On all known historical facts it is quite difficult to separate them but for home ground advantage. As stated last week the advantage has been quite significantly eroded by the fact that the Stormers also had to travel from Australia prior to this game. Of far greater significance is that the Stormers will probably field a weakened front row against ( possibly ) one of the strongest front three in the competition. Whichever way you look at it 11/20 seems a remarkably skinny price for a match screaming 9/10 the pair.

So either I don't understand rugby ( a distinct possibility! ) or 15/10 the Crusaders is the biggest price in the history of the Super 14. Long term betting, however, is apparently already pricing in a Crusaders WIN on Friday!!!!! So you work it out.

So - in summary : If you fancy the Stormers on Friday you must surely feast on the 4/1 while you are at it. If you fancy the Crusaders then forget long term and pig out on the 15/10.

Naturally there are a number of other potential scenarios that could play out which would overturn all the projections. Here are a sequence of 'fantasy results' which are not entirely 'fantastic' :

Crusaders beat all of Stormers, Bulls & Brumbies.
Bulls lose to Sharks, Crusaders and Stormers
Stormers lose to Crusaders, Sharks & Bulls

.................plus all the potential variations on the above!

Cheers again Garrick you got me confused :S go the Bulls, do they have to play in Soweto? if they are top of the log.