Fancy winning REALLY BIG MONEY?

Whats the latest from the greatest? did start looking at the various combinations but thought better to wait for your update?

Please!

After round 11 Interbet volumes look as follows :

Crusaders (11/2) R161,885 +56% over last week
Bulls (12/10) R111,425 +15% over last week
Stormers (22/10) R50,458 +57% over last week
Brumbies (16/1) R20,594 +5% over last week
Hurricanes (20/1) R2,057 +10% over last week
Waratahs (16/1) R8,262 +40% over last week
Reds (14/1) R9,288 + 93% over last week
Blues (500/1) R2,057 +0,5% over last week

The long term betting reveals the following ; Last weeks' price on the Bulls clearly already factored in an anticipated win so they tighten up very marginally into 12/10. For the time being the value has gone. The 4/1 offered about the Stormers last week was pretty generous and is long gone with the Cape franchise shortening into 22/10 and deservedly registering a 57% increase in turnover. The Crusaders have 'blown' out to 11/2 - which seems to have precipitated an oddsmakers led stampede into the franchise to cover their earlier positions. They register a 57% turnover increase this week. The Reds, too, drew a 93% turnover increase off a comparatively low base. Nevertheless my sources tell me that these figures are confetti compared to the numbers being traded through other channels.

What to do now ?

Well - it is almost time to pull the plug on your long term position and revert to the tried and trusted method of betting - prayer! Seriously, though, those of you who have followed this thread since June 2009 should, almost without exception, have stock to 'trade' to ensure that, at worst, you lose nothing. Bulls and Stormers fans should be cruising. Crusaders fans hoping and the rest praying.

Let's look at the weekend games and then focus on the major players :

HURRICANES 5/10 x REDS 16/10

It looks at though earlier exertions against the Bulls, Stormers and Brumbies have caught up with the Reds. Hurricanes look a 'fair thing' to win. But whether they are good enough to register a five pointer is another thing altogether. Beware of betting early on these NZ fixtures - the weather needs to be considered.

CHIEFS 11/10 X WARATAHS 8/10

Another interesting match as the Waratahs need to correct the slip of last week to get back into contention. Too close to call but I would enjoy a Chiefs win.

BRUMBIES 1/6 X HIGHLANDERS 9/2

Although an outright win for the Brumbies seems likely the Highlanders put in a vastly improved performance last week and would like nothing better than to down the Aussies. none of the Australian franchises have been overly consistent this season so I would be in no hurry to claim the 1/6!

LIONS 5/2 X BLUES 1/3

Who cares.

BULLS 2/7 X CRUSADERS 28/10

2/7 the Bulls looks very skinny. Amazingly two losing matches have seen the Crusaders relegated to being the second longest shots of the weekend. Surely they are not that bad? What does the form say? A couple of interesting things : The Bulls have generally reserved their WORST performances for Friday night matches. The Crusaders have a good overall record at Loftus and are desperate. The Bulls have only had a 6 day turnaround time from their last ( bruising ) encounter against the Sharks. One wonders just how focused the Bulls will really be.......although a birdie did tell me that they seldom lose when Marius Jonker controls the game.

SHARKS 18/10 X STORMERS 9/20

If the Stormers repeat their performance of a week ago they should defeat the injury weakened Sharks. South African sides generally do each other no favours but one wonders if the Sharks will really be up for it after their unsuccessful exertions against the Bulls a week ago.

The forward battle should be brutal but beyond that there seems to be little behind the Sharks scrum to really scare the Stormers.

Despite the lofty positions occupied by both the Bulls and the Stormers on the log matters could take a turn for the worse under the following circumstances :

IF the Bulls were to leave Loftus 'pointless' on Friday they would have to travel to Cape Town only 1 point in front of the Stormers and with a distinct possibility of the same result occuring at Newlands.

A loss against the Bulls on Friday puts the Crusaders at risk of fading out of contention altogether.

A loss to the Sharks would be a bump for the Stormers.

And who will challenge for the fourth spot? There are endless possibilities but the Hurricanes, Waratahs & Brumbies appear to be the most likely prospects although ALL could conceivably fail/succeed.

Thank you again Garrick look forward to an all SA final in Soweto (tu)

That was a great game Bulls vs Crusaders, probably the best team did not win?
But money was on the Bulls a bit nerve shattering -D

After round 12 Interbet volumes look as follows :

Crusaders (13/2) R174,885 +7% over last week
Bulls (11/10) R111,425 +17% over last week
Stormers (5/2) R50,458 +13% over last week
Brumbies (16/1) R20,594 +9% over last week
Hurricanes (12/1) R2,057 +84% over last week
Waratahs (8/1) R8,262 +,004% over last week
Reds (500/1) R9,288 + 8% over last week

Up until this week punters taking long term prices about their fancies were being offered a 'bonus' on the odds - the reality that their pick could sustain a defeat without necessarily being eliminated from the running.That is now gone. Only the Bulls are confirmed home semi-finalists so let's examine their odds first :

Bookmakers are now suggesting that the Bulls are 9/20 semi-final shots x 9/20 final shots to lift the cup ( 9/20 x 9/20 = 11/10 ). ( I am assuming 'no price' for this week's last round robin match as it has no influence on the games that follow ). You can be the judge as to whether you would want to get involved at those prices. Given the very fortuitous win that they pulled off against the Crusaders last week you would not necessarily be relishing a return clash AWAY from Loftus in a winner takes all semi or final having taken an effective 9/20! You would rather now be selling the Bulls off the 10/1, 12/1 and 14/1 doubles you connected earlier this year.

Interesting opportunity lurks with the Hurricanes(12/1) / Waratahs (8/1). One of these sides has to qualify after this weekend. The Hurricanes, in particular, appeal as they have more than a slight chance of upsetting the Waratahs despite being away from home. This is a straight forward quarter final - no bonus points required. Just a one point margin of victory. If you are looking to trade ( remenbering that you do not want to take 'same horse' doubles ) then maybe the Crusaders this weekend 9/20 x Hurricanes long term 12/1 = 18/1 is an option for trading purposes. Alternatively punters might go Hurricanes this weekend 14/10 x Crusaders long term 13/2 =17/1.

The Stormers at 5/2 are very skinny as their prospects represent a 'hiding to nothing' until after the weekened - assuming they even win. Why? Because beating a so-called 'weak' Bulls side is non-negotiable. Fans of this franchise cannot help but have noticed that they are capable of a.) Not turning up b.) They will be facing a side eager to make its mark ( and you can read that however you wish! ) c.) They may suffer injuries in the process against a side far from being as 'weak' as some are suggesting.

The Crusaders/Brumbies game promises another cracker. Although the Crusaders shape up as likely winners the following should be noted - They have already lost to two Australian franchises so clearly only the NZ sides regard them as unbeatable. They have had to travel back home. The Brumbies usually bring something different to the match. On the positive side the Crusaders appear to have re-discovered their attacking talents against the Bulls. Expect a tense struggle.

None of the other matches have any relevance so one or more is bound to produce a surprise result. But don't bet on the Lions breaking their losing spell.

After the final round of the tournament Interbet volumes look as follows :

Crusaders (4/1) R181,602 +3,8% over last week
Bulls (11/10) R154,371 +38% over last week
Stormers (22/10) R101,172 +100% over last week
Waratahs (17/2) R13,814 +67% over last week

The real mover in the last week has been the Stormers - with turnover effectively doubling in the last 7 days. This suggests that the market may be trying to tell us the following : Stormers fans believe that the Crusaders will beat the Bulls this weekend and travel to Newlands for the final.

Now that we are down to the short strokes let's try and unravel what will happen :

Form indicates that it is very difficult for away sides to win semis and finals. That immediately places huge pressure on the Crusaders and Waratahs and, for that matter, whoever has to travel next week. However - what muddies the water this year is Orlando Stadium which could conceivably host both a semi and a final. It represents an almost ( but not quite) neutral venue although I am told that it is situated at a higher altitude than Loftus. So let's look at the form ;

BULLS VS CRUSADERS

The Bulls are well rested or over rested depending upon your viewpoint. I go with the former. They have lost Bakkies Botha and Gerhard van den Heever to suspension. Otherwise they are at full strength.

Apart from home ground they have pretty much everything in their favour. They have a good pack, excellent lineout and loose forwards and an outstanding flyhalf. They have also had the rub of the green in the last few weeks - a sporting quirk which is bound to reverse itself at some point.

The only weakness that I can detect in their armour is that Scotia fancies them! So we need to add an additional stone to their saddlebag and hope they can still get up with that impediment.

The Crusaders have at last 'clicked' in the last two weeks. They were unlucky in Pretoria and then returned home to deal with the Brumbies in short order. They will create history if they can overcome the travel issue and beat the Bulls. But word from the camp suggests they regard this mission as well within their compass.

STORMERS VS WARATAHS

Form suggests this should be the more straightforward of the two semis with the Stormers likely to prevail over the Waratahs. A repeat of the round robin result will see the Stormers home comfortably although there is always the possibility that the home side might choose Saturday as a 'not to turn up' day.

If the Waratahs wish to have any chance of winning then they need to be 'out of the blocks' quickly as the Stormers have not seemed comfortable in a 'come from behind' role.

Semis are often tight affairs with defenses dominating. The defensive pecking order of all four sides reads as follows :

Stormers - Points conceded 171, tries conceded 17
Crusaders - Points conceded 295, tries conceded 24
Waratahs - Points conceded 288, tries conceded 31
Bulls - Points conceded 345, tries conceded 32

If you are still looking to have a bet then you would probably be best served by trying to connect different side doubles into the final. For example if you fancy the Bulls to win overall then a double reading Your pick in the Stormers/Waratahs match x Bulls to lift the cup has appeal.

Enjoy.

Big day today, thanks again Garrick and

good punting!

At long last we make it through to the final after 14 arduous weeks :


For those of you who backed the Bulls or Stormers this week is all about squaring off your position. Priority #1 is to dispose of whatever stock you might need to in order to ensure that, at worst, you do not lose.

If you managed to click multiples on either ( or both of! ) the Bulls and Stormers you should not need to go into the last event with any liability. Early doubles on the Bulls would have netted you odds of 14/1 + whilst early doubles on the Stormers could have been as high as 250/1+.

Once you have done the above the match itself becomes of realtively academic interest as the most vulnerable period of this exercise is usually in the semis.

Who will win it?

My head says - Bulls. My heart says - Stormers.

But enough of the Super 14 - big events lie ahead. In sequential order : Fifa World Cup - Tri-Nations - Currie Cup - Cricket ODI World Cup - Super 15 2011 - Rugby World Cup 2011. Peppered in between should be an endless number of 'first leg' opportunities via horse racing or other one off events to allow you to start accumulating fresh 'stock' cheaply for the events ahead.

To whet your appetite : You can get 6/10 that ANY of the following sides win the World Cup - Brazil,England,Argentina,Italy,Germany,France or Uruguay. Effectively you are laying Spain, Holland & Portugal - who stack up as the only really serious alternative contenders. Looks more attractive than an 'on the nose' punt........or what do you think?

And..........A form based evaluation of next year's Rugby World Cup would suggest that world rankings should probably read 1.) South Africa 2.) Australia 3.) NZ. Yet the betting paints a different picture - reading 1.) NZ 2.) South Africa 3.) Australia. Possibly scope for a few speculative arrows into these odds in the not too distant future to restore some reality!

Hope you have all done well out of the rugby.

Thanks again Garrick for your rugby posts and its a bonus if you can lead us through the soccer/football (tu)