Fancy winning REALLY BIG MONEY?

As punters we tend to live from hand-to-mouth on whatever oppportunities present themselves in any one given week.

Long term strategies do not traditionally tend to figure too prominently in our thinking and planning. This is a pity as focusing on and working around a long term event could allow us to accumulate a lot of 'stock' ( ie 'live bets') as we draw closer to any event of our choice.

I notice that Centrebet.com have already priced up for the 2010 Super 14 quoting some quite attractive prices.Most SAF bookmakers will be happy to bet to these percentages. If- in the next 10 months - you were to fire a succession of doubles into this event incorporating a group of the usual suspects you would probably kick off next February with a fantastic 'book'.

Other than fluking an Act Of God exotic this is probably the best way to give yourself a shot at big money. So next time you encounter that occasional 'good thing' do what the professionals do - take a double into the team/s of your choice and build that stock holding!

I agree with you if you have proper bankroll control you can out lay in future events,where there can be value to be had..

Further to this post :

Found any doubles or trebles yet ?

Super 14 draws ever closer and the Air New Zealand cup has started to reveal the relative strengths of the Kiwi franchises even though the final allocation of Super 14 squads has yet to take place.

Let's have a look at the present 'weather report' of the likely front runners :

Bulls : Have lost Brian Habana to the Stormers. Their Currie Cup performances to date suggest that their backup may not be as strong as we would like to believe.
At full strength they are a force.

Brumbies : Have acquired Matt Giteau from the Western Force and Rocky Elsom from the Waratahs. Should stiffen their player resources quite markedly although Mortlock may be in the twilight of his career and their backup forwards are average at best.

Sharks ; Have a nasty habit of imploding at the 200m mark. Fell away alarmingly last season with the competition at their mercy. Of concern is that they are far from unbeatable at home once we are through the 'humidity season' of Feb/March.
Settled squad but have acquired no players yet that suggest they might improve on 2009.

Stormers : Clearly planning to buy the trophy. Have already netted Brian Habana and (possibly?) Jacque Fourie. In my opinion they still rate no better than adequate up front where they appear to have signed nothing as yet outside of the useful looking Anton Van Zyl. The impact made by ( the soon to depart ) Chris Jack in the Currie Cup should tell them all they need to know about their pack.

Waratahs - Not a lot of flair but the usual grunt. ( Maybe they were referring to the Waratahs when they cry about 'boring rugby'?? ). Have acquired a RSA youngster at lock which should be seen purely as an investment for the future.

Hurricanes - Seem to be the NZ answer to the Stormers - they flatter to deceive. Just as they now also appear to be doing in the Air NZ Cup. No major acquisitions as yet so expect same old same old.

Crusaders - Should be a warm order to recapture the crown. Carter is back. Hooker Corey Flynn and scrumhalf Andrew Ellis are over their injuries. Youngsters that emerged last season now have a 'crusade' under the belt and should improve for it. They are also reported to be close to signing leading 2008 rookies Israel Dagg (fullback/wing ) and Zac Guildford (centre).

Their pack at full strength will be almost the full All Black eight. An interesting side issue is that possibly all three Whitelock brothers may turn out at some stage for the red and blacks.

Blues - You tell me. Always impossible to predict.

Chiefs - Difficult to assess. Comprehensively dismantled by the Bulls in last year's finals - an expereience which their All Black representatives do not appear to have forgotten. They also tend to perform a la the Stormers in a competition where consistency is what separates winners from losers. On their day they are lethal. When theyr'e off they can be diabolical.

They appear to like both losing and winning sequences. No major reported personnel changes as yet.

Western Force, Lions, Cheetahs, Reds, Highlanders - Unlikely winners.

Is there any early value? : The Crusaders at 4/1 appear correctly priced.
There is 9/2 Brumbies, Bulls & Sharks. Maybe shopping for 5/1 the Brumbies is an option.

Chiefs & Hurricanes at 6/1 look about right.

Waratahs might offer trading potential at 7/1 if they start as strongly as they normally do. But be prepared to offload if they flatter early.

Blues look juicy at 9/1 but often look unappealing after a couple of weeks at 14/1!

Eternal optimists will like 12/1 the Stormers.

The picture should become clearer once the fixtures are announced. Remember to look out for the 7/6 factor - the teams which have 7 home games and 6 away.

Doubles at the prices listed above are attractive!

Great stuff Garrick..

The conclusion of the Tri-Nations represented 'mission accomplished' for me. If it proves to be of any help to other would be sports players in the future here is how I played it :

Step 1 : I took the double - SA to win the Lions series x SA to win the Tri-Nations.

Bet struck was R 260,000 - R 100,000.

Step 2 : After three legs of the Tri-Nations I laid off R 50,000 - R 125,000 RSA.

My revised position, therefore, became :

If SA won the Tri-Nations I collected R 210,000.
If SA DID NOT win the Tri-Nations I collected R 25,000
Liabilty : Nil.

Ideally this is what every punter should be aiming at when wagering. Too often we continue with the gamble when we have the opportunity to save our stakes by taking a reduced profit.

If you would like to give this simple ( and obvious ) method a whirl then the Currie Cup still offers plenty of scope whilst the Super 14 could be the second leg into which you might like to connect.

Alternatively - for those of you who are a lot less patient the Currie Cup x ICC Champions Trophy should give you a lot of excitement.

If you want to carry on doing your tom then stick to the horses........

Nice one Garrick, you should also add to our punting stories on the racing thread, you might win a bottle of JWB or should I say a decent malt?

cheers

With the Currie Cup moving into its final phases it may be the appropriate time to consider a Currie Cup x Super 14 double.

Currie Cup : It would come as something of a surprise if one of either the Sharks or the Bulls did not lift the cup.

Other contenders :

WP are picking up injuries at an alarming rate whilst the departure of Chris Jack and the continued unavailability of Andries Bekker may prove fatal. In addition their goal kicking talents ( particularly from range ) look suspect.

Griquas are unlikely to have the player resources. Period.

Lions - I don't think so - particularly with Jacque Fourie likely to be out for a while even if his suspension appeal is partially successful.

Cheetahs - dark horses but likely to fall short in my opinion.

So punters can make up their own minds regarding the two mentioned above although the market seems to be pointing towards the Bulls. Certainly the players they can add to the mix in the next two weeks does lend weight to their being strong contenders. On this basis 2/1 about the Bulls looks like excellent value in what looks close to being a boat race.

If, for example, you were to take the Bulls with the Crusaders in the 2010 Super 14 your double works out as follows :

Bulls (2/1) x Crusaders (4/1) = 14/1.

Alternatively :

Sharks (16/10) x Crusaders (4/1) = 12/1

Assuming one of the above wins the Currie Cup can you imagine how your position will look at any time during the Super 14 with the Crusaders playing 7 at home and 6 away next season?

They only have to start well and you will see their price very quickly shorten to 2/1 or worse......in which case you trade out at a massive margin and sit back and enjoy your free bet.

If you don't fully understand the 'trading options' then you may want to structure your bets in a different manner :

Scenario 1 - Where you fancy the Sharks :

Take the Sharks/Crusaders Double at 12/1

Bet R12,000 - R1,000

Take a cover double Bulls/Crusaders at 14/1

Bet R 2,000 - R 140

Scenario 2 - Where you fancy the Bulls :

Take the Bulls/Crusaders Double at 14/1

Bet R14,000 - R1,000

Take a cover double Sharks/Crusaders at 12/1

Bet R 2,000 - R160


Ideally you should put the larger amount on the bigger priced of the two but the choice is yours.

The reason for slecting the Crusaders as the second leg is primarily because they are consistent and most likely to shorten. It is not because they are necessarily going to win it. This is the beauty of the exercise - you can trade out as the market hardens instead of becoming a victim of one bad match!

Have a go.......it will cure you of 12/10 shots forever!

Going to follow you in Garrick,cheers..

Well - that was the Currie Cup.........and a perfect form result it was.

Those of you who took the Bulls as your first leg into a future event are now in a dominant position.

Reading through the past posts reveals that - barring the perenially ( ? ) disappointing Sharks - form worked out.

Clearly the market is already getting a little jittery over the 2010 Super 14 as you are already going to battle to get very much better than 3/1 ( previously 4/1 ) about the Crusaders. You could/should be sitting pretty with stock at 14/1!! Although I would regard it as unnecessarily premature to start offloading I am sure bookmakers would be happy to take 4/1 from the timid right now - leaving you with 10/0. Punting can be hell.......!!!

My prediction is that the Super 14 will kick off next February with the Crusaders quoted somewhere between 5/2 - 3/1.

Footnote to the Currie Cup :

Are the Bulls in decline?

In my opinion the answer is 'yes'. Here are my reasons :

The real core of the squad is made up of 5 players : Matfield, Botha, Du Preez, Steyn & Habana. ( I have excluded Spies as I do not believe he is as influential as the other 5 players ).

Next season Habana moves to WP - a loss of 20% of that core group. Imagining a Bulls lineup in a potential final without Habana in the backline cannot really spark any great fears amongst opposition squads. They become competent at best.

The Bulls front row has been suspect all season. They struggled against Free State. That's a massive danger signal in the Super 14.

Then let's use the collateral form : How good are the Free State? And where do you believe they will finish in the Super 14? I would guess at bottom third. If that pans out then the outlook for the Bulls is not particularly bright as they were all out to beat the Free State in the Currie Cup final.

Possibly the only South African side ( based on current form ) with the scope to materially raise its game in the Super 14 next year is the Stormers. Whether they are genuine semi final contenders ( which is all we should be looking for ) is highly debatable.

But by now you should have already laid the foundation of your play via the Bulls' victory in the Currie Cup.

Enjoy reading your rugby posts Garrick,keep them coming..

In less than a month the Super 14 kicks off and, if Interbet is any guide, activity appears to be picking up. Given that most punters have a betting horizon that seldom extends beyond the end of the current week the numbers are significant. Trades have been effected on the following teams ;

Crusaders R19,000
Brumbies R 6,000
Bulls R 5,000
Stormers R 1,700

The rest - no interest at present.

The obvious area to look if you are wishing to connect another double is the Met. The only problem with using this vehicle is that you will render your whole bet taxable but maybe 6% is not that significant if you are taking a roughie horse with a roughie team.

Despite claiming to be organised I sometimes cannot resist a lunatic punt so I had a nibble at River Jetez x Stormers which worked out a 288/1. You can be the judge as to how much I took of it! Just sorry I didn't ignore earlier rumours of the mare not accepting for the Met - in which case the double would have been 577/1! No matter - I am violating my basic strategy of NOT coupling horses with sports so will probably end up with what I deserve - bus tickets.

Nevertheless - what appears to be a blindingly obvious double : Pocket Power x Crusaders still works out at an attractive 10,25 x 1. Turn your nose up at it only if you believe you can find one off 10/1 shots more easily. Those of you who tagged the Bulls in the Currie Cup final as your first leg will, of course, be scoffing at this price........

On the form front there have been developments which are well worth considering :

As usual South African franchises - with the exception of the Bulls - do not seem to have finalised their squads. NZ announced their squads last year. But the Lions do seem eager to shed the tag of 'walking bonus point' if recent signings are anything to go by. I predict they may well up their nuisance value this season - particulary against local opposition.

All in all Super 14 is just beginning to take on the appearance of being able to offer quite a number of very tight results - particularly those involving the middle pins.

My pocket, however, is shouting ( with a small bit of praying! ) Crusaders.

You might be a bit of a lunatic Garrick, but we like you

txs

"Despite claiming to be organised I sometimes cannot resist a lunatic punt so I had a nibble at River Jetez x Stormers which worked out a 288/1. You can be the judge as to how much I took of it! Just sorry I didn't ignore earlier rumours of the mare not accepting for the Met - in which case the double would have been 577/1! No matter - I am violating my basic strategy of NOT coupling horses with sports so will probably end up with what I deserve - bus tickets".