Fancy winning REALLY BIG MONEY?

A lot of would be sports punters often ask me the following question :

How do I get involved in rugby betting? I don’t have a lot of capital so punting teams ‘outright’ ( or ‘on the nose’ ) is too expensive as it requires too large an outlay or, alternatively, too small a return on the capital risked.

As most of the punters making this statement usually come from a racing background this statement has a bit of merit but is also prompted by a great deal of ignorance.

Let’s start off by looking at the overall picture :

A rugby game only has three potential outcomes : Win, lose or draw. So simplistically put you will be bucking a simple ‘2/1 against’ trend at first glance. If you compare this against a horse race with, say, 10 runners you would start off with a ‘9/1 against’ scenario. So you immediately start off with a better overall long term opportunity by virtue of fewer ‘runners’.

One of the possible outcomes is the ‘draw’ option. Under normal circumstances there is usually only a 4% - 6% chance of the draw occurring so this dramatically dilutes the possibility/probability of the real odds being 2/1 against. ( Super 14 offers a good insight into the probability of the draw – in 2009 there were only 2 draws out of a total of 87 matches. In previous years there have tended to be no more than 3 draws per season ). So, in actual fact, Super 14 is pretty close ( unlike football ) to being a ‘coin toss’ – ie 50/50 – bet.

Evaluating the merits of each game ( ie form study ) should further tilt the odds in the favour of the well educated punter. As is very much the case with horse racing where a sound evaluation of each race is more about ‘what cannot win’ than what is actually likely to win – hence the reduction of your genuine opposition.

So although rugby may appear to be exceptionally tightly priced it is often more generous towards the punter than racing given the variables you are up against. Industry betting averages on rugby are 108% per match whereas racing ante-post can be easily 140%+ whilst only shortening ( supposedly! ) to 120% at the off. If you factor in the multitude of imponderables in racing ( not least being that you are wagering on an animal ) you will suddenly realise you are very brave or optimistic betting on this medium. Comparative to an almost endless series of variables that can sabotage your racing bet rugby ‘cannonballs from left field’ usually take the form of only one of a small handful of variants : eg Extreme weather conditions, injury to pivotal player/s ‘in running’, yellow/red cards.

As stated in earlier posts you can then improve your value by linking a series of events together to either reduce your outlay or buy you a bigger interest in the outcome.

Another popular betting option is the handicap. Here odds makers offer either a ‘start’ ( ie the + ) or a handicap ( ie the - ) on a single event. Based on a relatively scientific evaluation of the impending match they will attempt to price up a ‘dead heat’. In recent years most bookmakers have introduced the ‘half point’ – which eliminates the tie as obviously no match can finish with a score incorporating a half point. Great for punters!

The accepted pricing on these events is 9/10 the pair – in order to eliminate the possibility of backing both sides and making a profit. Do the arithmetic and you will note that this gives layers an 11% margin on the event which is why some outlets offer up to 95/100 on these events. Quite generous but you still need to pick the right one!

I am not mad about this bet type as, in my experience, it often favours the weaker side. Which is not good for my head! There are a number of practical reasons why teams starting with the + often turn into winners. I will list a small handful of them :

Sides are about winning – the gap is usually not critical unless there is a bonus point at stake. Even if the side has run up an early lead and secured the bonus point they often relax or clear the bench with the result that the opposing side narrows the gap – usually at the expense of the punter who took the -. It can be very frustrating when a lax last 10 minutes results in a quick 14 points and the demolition of your position on a side that was clearly superior and left the field very pleased with themselves.

6 Nations rugby, in particular, tends to provide very tight results with fewer tries. So catching the spread right can depend on one penalty or conversion.

Nevertheless – if the handicap is your game you might already have discovered that the + is often the better way to play.

Also nothing to stop you linking a handicap result to another outright result. It certainly improves your value on multiple bets.

The last option is the spread. This can either be very exciting or very hairy. The spread will typically start with a handicap to equalise the merits of the two sides.

The problem with the spread is that most layers operate with a stop loss – ie there is usually a maximum number of points beyond the handicap to which they will lay.

Eg –If your selection has a -6 handicap then their stop loss may be +26 ( ie you clear the -6 and then kick on by another 20 ) – beyond which they will not pay.
The same applies on the downside to allegedly protect your potential losses.

These stop losses are obviously welcome if your pick falls in a hole and loses by a mile. But conversely they will deny you a really big win if you have a result similar to the one the Bulls produced in the Super 14 final last season.

I used to punt at R500/R1000 per point on the spread with no stop loss. When it went your way it was glorious. Every time your side racked up a converted try you were mentally ‘banking’ R3,500 or R7,000.

But if you go back to last Friday and see the way in which the Chiefs squandered what was at one stage, I believe, a 40 point margin you would tear your hair out! Or pop a champagne cork if you had backed the Lions- as you got out of serious jail time!

Superb Garrick great for the punters, just hope the sponsors dont visit the sports forum

Scotia -Would they care? Surely they are using the Soccer 6 to fund stakes?

Racing needs to get a little less paranoid about trying to protect its perceived monopoly. Symbiotic relationships with other betting mediums can grow the game. I would contend that your BEST potential customer is one who already gambles and enjoys it.

After Week 3 Interbet volumes read as follows :

Crusaders R43,179 (3/1)
Bulls R19,919 (3/1)
Brumbies R15,329 (5/1)
Chiefs R5,379 (7/1)
Stormers R4,438 (12/1)
Waratahs R1,529 (16/1)
Blues R1,320 (20/1)
Hurricanes R1,233 (6/1)

There has been strong support for the Bulls as a consequence of three excellent successive wins but the Crusaders remain the 'money horse' after getting their campaign back on track with a 5 pointer over the hapless Sharks.

The Brumbies remain a 'shrewdie' choice although they can consider themselves lucky to have escaped from Cape Town with 4 points.

The remainder will need to improve to impress the market.

Hereunder is the betting history since the competition started :

Franchise 11/02 18/02 25/02 04/03
Blues 14 20 20 20
Brumbies 11/2 5 6 5
Bulls 9/2 4 33/10 3
Cheetahs 100 150 100 200
Chiefs 10 7 8 7
Crusaders 3 28/10 33/10 3
Force 66 150 250 500
Highlanders66 100 200 100
Hurricanes 8 7 5 6
Lions 125 300 250 300
Reds 100 150 50 66
Sharks 12 20 50 66
Stormers 12 10 8 12
Waratahs 10 12 20 16

Where does the value lie this week ?

The Bulls offer no value at 3/1 and they also have a bye.

This may well be the last week that 3/1 is available about the Crusaders if they win well against the Blues. Opportunity here.

Don't expect too much movement from the Brumbies as they are expected to beat the Lions.

If the Waratahs play for the remainder of the season as they did against the Bulls then 16/1 is definitely value for trading out of later in the season. Another loss and you are cooked.

Stormers are good value at 12/1 for trading purposes as they should be capable of going close in their next three games. ( You will recall that I had R2mxR7000 after the Met. That position has now changed as I laid off R500k x R40k last Friday before they lost to the Brumbies. They now win me R1,5mil if they win the comp and R33k nett if they don't).

This weekend could be intriguing :

There are three matches worth evaluating :

Waratahs vs Sharks - The Sharks are effectively out of contention barring a miracle. This makes them dangerous as they may start playing with abandon and certainly have the required personnel to start winning. They will be catching the Waratahs after travelling and a particularly hard match against the Bulls. You be the judge but this could be a roughie result in the offing.

Stormers vs Highlanders - Expect the Stormers to win. They have the stingiest defence in the competition and the Highlanders do not have the most penetrative attack.

Cheetahs vs Hurricanes - Hurricanes fly straight into Bloemfontein. Cheetahs should have the needle after last week. Cheetahs offer big upset potential this weekeend.

Whether you go multiples or singles it makes sense to fire into the Crusaders long term this weekend as your last leg.

After Week 4 Interbet indicates the following :

3 sides – Hurricanes, Waratahs & Brumbies – have not attracted a single cent in the last 7 days and are all on the same total as last week.

The biggest mover of the week has been the Chiefs whose total has gone from R5,379 to R12,861- a turnover increase of 139%.

The Bulls have gone from R19,919 to R26,434 – up 33%.

The Crusaders have risen from R43,179 to R59,986 – up 39%.

As stated last week – the Crusaders remain the ‘money horse’ and bookmakers are likely to continue shifting in the saddle as long as the red and blacks continue winning. The Bulls will be mightily pleased that they remain top despite enjoying their bye week last weekend.

The revised pecking order now looks as follows :

Crusaders(5/2) R59,986
Bulls(28/10) R26,434
Brumbies(5/1) R15,329
Chiefs (7/1) R12,861
Hurricanes(8/1) R1,233
Stormers(8/1) R5,138
Waratahs(16/1) R1,529
Blues(25/1) R1,329
Reds(33/1) R350

Where does the long term value lie after week 4?

Of the top two the Bulls definitely represent better long term value this week as it is highly unlikely they will earn less than 4 points against the Highlanders this weekend. The Crusaders, on the other hand, are a tad short at 5/2 and have a tougher assignment against the Chiefs away at Hamilton.

So my ‘last leg’ pick for any weekend action would lean towards the Bulls.

The Stomers at 5/10 against the Hurricanes look a fair bet if you take the double into the Bulls long term @ 5/1. Those of you who snaffled up the 12/1 Stormers [long term] last week should be smiling as it appears you will be in a trading position very shortly if they win again on Saturday. One small caveat – the Hurricanes have snatched matches from the Stormers after the hooter on a number of occasions – so keep the champagne on ice until after the ref has pointed them to the tunnel!

Another opportunity which I feel has appeal this weekend is the double Crusaders to win against the Chiefs x Bulls long term. The market is a little at odds with itself on the Crusaders match but 6/10 the Crusaders seems freely available.

That makes the double an 11/2 shot – which is attractive.

Can the Chiefs beat the Crusaders? Sure they can – but not on last week’s performance so I am plumping for the Crusaders to continue to improve. Furthermore they seem to be acquiring returning All Blacks with each passing week – Corey Flynn (hooker) got game time last week whilst Chris Jack (lock) turned out for a minor game. They will shortly be able to call on three All Black locks in addition to the very promising third Whitelock brother.

Another match which may catch your fancy is the Brumbies x Sharks. Although the Brumbies may well win there is no way they represent a valid 2/7 chance on current form to my way of thinking. If the Sharks can resist playing like an Eastern Transvaal side from the 60’s they may represent massive value at +9,5 on the handicap. I’m no fan of handicap betting but the double with the Bulls long term works out at 13/2 if you ask nicely.

How does the competition look overall if your money is already down?

Crusaders looking sound if still lacking a really classy edge.

Bulls have been awesome but have leaked a lot of points and will travel without Bakkies Botha and an alarmingly greenhorn back division.

Brumbies and Waratahs have both been remarkably unimpressive. So far.

Chiefs and Hurricanes starting to shape as just off semi-final standard but could improve.

Stormers OK but are leaving too many potential bonus points on the table. Goal kicking from range also suspect.

Banana peel teams now most definitely – Reds, Sharks & Blues & Cheetahs. All of these likely to upset when you can least afford them/want them to!

Sharks, Force, Lions, Highlanders effectively cannot win or would require a miracle.

Thanks again for a superb update Garrick.

We have many new punters visiting the forums and would just like to add the following for your information.

As I am sure you are aware that the bookies generally hold the bets so if a punter goes to the bookie and takes 3000/1000 the Crusaders the bookie is holding 1000.

The difference between an exchange is the numbers reflected in the "vol" is the volume "traded" eg 60,000 on the Crusaders is probably 45,000/15,000

The exchange Interbet is a bookie to punter exchange where Betfair is a punter to punter exchange (which could include bookmakers).

So if you see that traded 64,000 usd on the rugby, of which 24,000 usd was traded on the Cusaders is just a volume of money traded between punters at various odds.
However I would add that these figures can easily be inflated due to punter/traders using bots just to take small profits based on slight moves in the market. So one punters 1000 usd, can be used many times which can inflate the volume traded figures.

The Lions of South Africa are now becomming the laughing stock of world rugby. Every year they go from bad to worse. I believe that the Eastern Cape should be able to form a team and that the powers that be, should kick out the Lions. Its rather painful watching them and I dont even support them. Its no wonder that Eliis Park is virtually empty when they play. Maybe there matches should be played at some club ground.

So far this season they have twice conceded over 70 points in a match and they have only played five matches. The Crusaders will put 100 on them.

When do the Lions and Crusaders play? and where

whats the points spread? for the 9/10.......60/70?

might just have a go on the underdogs :S

With the comp fast approaching the halfway mark one of the easier ways to evaluate the merit of the performances achieved to date is to have a look at the wins/losses in tabular form:

Bulls Stormers Crusaders

Bulls Bulls
Stormers Stormers
Crusaders Crusaders
Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs W
Brumbies W Brumbies L Brumbies
Reds Reds Reds L
Waratahs W Waratahs W Waratahs
Hurricanes Hurricanes W Hurricanes
Cheetahs W Cheetahs Cheetahs
Blues Blues Blues W
HighlandersW Highlanders W Highlanders W
Sharks Sharks Sharks W
Lions Lions W Lions
Western Force Western Force Western Force


All three front runners have played the Highlanders AT HOME and beaten them.

The Crusaders appear to have played weaker sides to date although the Sharks may prove to be difficult opponents for both the Bulls and Stormers.

Both the Bulls & Crusaders must be relishing the likelihood of 5 pointers when they meet the Lions.

The Crusaders have historically battled against the Force and the Bulls meet them on their first AWAY match in Australasia.

Crusaders AWAY win to Chiefs likely to be crucial. The future Bulls/Chiefs fixture in NZ also likely to be pivotal.

It is already becoming clear that the following three matches - all in the last weeks of the round robin - might have been scheduled by a clairvoyant!

Stormers vs Crusaders at Newlands

Crusaders vs Brumbies in Christchurch

Stormers vs Bulls at Newlands

After 5 rounds Interbet volumes read as follows :

Crusaders (22/10) R63,857 +6% over last week
Bulls (5/2) R27,300 +3% over last week
Brumbies (6/1) R17,376 +13% over last week
Stormers (7/1) R7,501 +45% over last week
Chiefs (12/1) R14,983 +16% over last week
Hurricanes (14/1) R1,233 no change from last week
Waratahs (16/1) R1,529 no change from last week
Reds (25/1) R576 +64% over last week
Blues (33/1) R1,520 +14% over last week

Interesting pointers from the betting :

At no point in the competition has the market ever been impressed by the Hurricanes and Waratahs given the fact that, on paper, they looked to be contenders at the beginning of the season.

Although both the Stormers and the Reds have registered large percentage increases since last week they were both off tiny bases.

Ongoing interest in the Chiefs is probably a case of bookmakers aligning their positions rather than fresh interest.

Market leaders the Bulls and Crusaders attracted minimal interest - probably because the value has pretty much been squeezed out in the last 14 days.

The only side offering a smattering of value at this point is the Reds at 25/1 although they still have to travel to South Africa - usually a tall order for Australian teams who seem prone to being 'distracted' by other matters when they are on tour.

It is probably now fair to confirm the hopeless position of the following sides : Western Force, Lions, Highlanders, Sharks. If the Cheetahs lose to the Stormers on Saturday they will join this group as they have yet to travel and are not very good at it.

Nevertheless all but the Western Force & Lions might still influence the outcome of the competition with upset results.

Weekend fixtures look quite straightforward - which should have the alarm bells ringing loudly for punters :

Blues vs Brumbies - Brumbies overdue for their second loss. Mortlock absent for them whilst Toeava returns for the Blues. If the home side can repeat their effort against the Crusaders a fortnight ago they should win here. This is pretty much last chance saloon for them to get into the play.

Bulls vs Hurricanes - Bulls -13,5 does not appeal. Nor does 1/7 on the nose. If the Hurricanes can show just a smattering of discipline and profit from an evening fixture (cooler) it is not inconceivable that they could derail the Blue Train. But if they show anything like their usual undisciplined approach they will get a snotklap like those who have gone before. This is a bit of a banana peel and does not appeal as a betting proposition.

Crusaders should despatch the Lions. But wait to see the weather before trying to beat a handicap of -28,5.

Highlanders vs Sharks could be a good one. Highlanders have had to travel but may have learned/drawn a lot from their good effort against the Bulls. Two leading lights will return fresh from disciplinary suspension last week and will add plenty to the mix af flyhalf and loose forward. Sharks mindset likely to remain fragile although they should be optimistic about picking up their first win.

Western Force vs Waratahs ; Waratahs should win but it is an Aussie derby so there is always that needle factor to beware of.

Stormers vs Cheetahs - These two sides have produced more draws than any others I can recall. 36 all, 35 all etc., seem popular with these two teams. Stormers look the obvious choice but I can't say I'm doing handstands over the team selection.

What to do? I'm giving it a miss this weekend. It all looks too obvious and that's when it is often best to keep the powder dry. There is little or no value to be had due to a number of perceived mismatches.

If you must then the Highlanders at home m-i-g-h-t just add more misery to the Sharks season.

After round 6 Interbet volumes look as follows :

Crusaders (2/1) R63,857 No change over last week
Bulls (28/10) R49,414 +81% over last week
Stormers (11/2) R9,167 +22% over last week
Brumbies (10/1) R17,376 No change over last week
Chiefs (10/1) R15,716 +5% over last week
Hurricanes (20/1) R1,233 No change over last week
Waratahs (20/1) R1,529 No change over last week
Reds (25/1) R742 +28% over last week
Blues (25/1) R1,720 + 13% over last week

The major long term action in the last 7 days has revolved around the Bulls with an 81% increase in turnover. To be fair - the Bulls look to be trading at a small discount based on results to date whilst the Crusaders offer no bargins at a range between 2/1 - 22/10. But the market seems to be wary as to how the Bulls might perform overseas whereas the Crusaders have already secured one important away win against the previously high flying Chiefs.

At what is close to being the halfway point the competition has fragmented into three sectors :

Serious semi-final contenders : Bulls, Crusaders & Stormers

4th Place Scramble : Brumbies, Chiefs, Hurricanes, Waratahs, Reds & Blues

Try again next year : Sharks, Cheetahs, Highlanders, Lions, Western Force

Ashwin Willemse claims that the Sharks can now kick on for a semi-final spot. Much as I appreciate loyalty I believe a smattering of reality would not go amiss:
Historically a team needs to amass between 41-42 log points in order to make the semis. The Sharks have 8 but still have 7 matches - offering a maximum of 35 points - to reach the minimum of 41 points to qualify. By my calculation they can afford to drop 2 more points in total if they are to reach the minimum qualification level of 41 points. I don't think so when you consider that their best result to date has been against the lowly Highlanders.

What does the long term picture look like ?

I would be surprised if the Bulls or Crusaders missed the semis. You now need to start narrowing focus and start 'guesstimating' who is going to finish 1 & 2 as those slots are going to be crucial in determining the final result.

The Stormers will also shortly be on tour without two key players - most importantly they have lost their best prop and, to a lesser extent, their fullback. But they seem to have the necessary depth to box on.

I have a feeling that not a single Australian franchise will qualify. The Western Force is dreadful, Waratahs one dimensional, Brumbies appear vulnerable as soon as one of Mortlock, Giteau or Elsom are unavailable whilst the Reds may struggle on the road whilst also looking very dependent upon their halfback combination.

What to do this weekend ?

Two matches make appeal :

Highlanders @ 1/4 should dispose of the Lions.

Hurricanes @ 5/10 should beat the Sharks.

Highlanders x Hurricanes x Long Term Pick (Bulls/Crusaders/Stormers) should keep the pressure on your bookmaker relentless!

Other matches offer interest but potentially hair raising rides :

Brumbies could fail again against a refreshed Chiefs side likely to be bolstered by the return of Luaki.

Reds hope to snuff out any aspirations the Cheetahs might have but I suspect the home side may prevail as this is the notorious 'first game in South Africa syndrome ' at play and the Cheetahs were not exactly bad against the Stormers last weekend. Injuries to the home side a concern.

If the Blues reproduce their last effort they could beat the Waratahs. But will they?

Force vs Bulls. A potential banana peel. The Loftus faithful are gone. So is the 'altitude in the last 20 minutes' factor. Australian teams tend to bring something innovative to games against the Bulls. If you like 1/5 then you probably backed Kauto Star in the Gold Cup last week and regard Charles Laird first timers with Anton Marcus up as 'investments'! Not for me. Watch and learn. Unless you fancy the Force +11,5 and have concluded that their performance last week was a massive improvement. Which it may have been. But if you cannot score tries.......................

After round 7 Interbet volumes look as follows :

Crusaders (2/1) R65,857 +3% over last week
Bulls (5/2) R49,414 +14% over last week
Stormers (11/2) R9,167 +9% over last week
Brumbies (15/2) R18,876 +8% over last week
Chiefs (12/1) R16,216 +3% over last week
Hurricanes (25/1) R1,233 No change over last week
Waratahs (12/1) R1,529 No change over last week
Reds (20/1) R942 +26% over last week
Blues (33/1) R1,720 + No change over last week

Without any real upsets to unsettle the market in round 7 there were no seismic betting changes.

Biggest volumes recorded were on the Bulls - who got their tour off to a good start with a win over the Force although they might have been hoping to garner a bonus point from the clash.

The only team that I can identify this week as offering a smattering of long term 'value' is the Blues. At a current quote of 33/1 they should shorten to about 20/1 if they were to manage a win over the Bulls this weekend. After that - who knows.

This weekend could/should be pivotal in pointing the way forward :

HURRICANES VS CRUSADERS

On paper the Crusaders should deal with the Hurricanes quite easily. But games are not played on paper! If you are contemplating a wager here then remember the following :

Hurricanes are one of the few sides to have taken the Crusaders' scalp on more than the odd occasion. They are at home.

Against them is the fact that the Crusaders are coming off a rest with a full squad. The Hurricanes have been through the mill in the last few weeks and must be pretty played out. They also look to be disinterested in their on field attitude and are failing to dictate play from the halfback position. But this IS a NZ derby and should be treated with caution.

FORCE VS STORMERS

I think the Stormers missed a trick in not travelling earlier to Perth. An extra day or two would have eliminated the jet lag altogether. Nevertheless Perth has been a reasonably happy venue for South African teams. Despite the significant return of Pocock to the Force side I wonder whether they will be able to raise themselves again after their exertions against the Bulls last week. Furthermore they still seem unable to score tries...........,.

Whether this is ugly or pretty it would be a mild upset if the Stormers lost.

BLUES VS BULLS

The Bulls now face the acid test in the Super 14 - a NZ team in NZ. We will find out if their laboured performances in the last 2 weeks were warnings of what was about to transpire or whether they are again able to lift their game.

Facts to consider : The Bulls have NEVER beaten the Blues in Auckland. The Blues can also score tries. But then so can the Bulls!

I am bothered by the fact that the Bulls have trotted out their leading players almost without interruption and have an unbroken string of 7 more matches to get through before the semis. I doubt whether their leading players will be able to stand the pace without respite. But against whom should they be rested?

This game should ( weather permitting ) be a cracker. If you put a gun to my head I would take the double : Bulls to lose against Blues x Bulls to lose against Chiefs next week. But then maybe I am talking from my pocket....................

CHIEFS VS HIGHLANDERS

Chiefs should win this one but need to put in an 80 minute effort for a change.

WARATAHS VS CHEETAHS

Don't expect the upset of the century because it won't happen. I fear the Cheetahs will fare far worse than the Lions overseas.

SHARKS VS REDS

This is an intruiging encounter with all the makings of a really good clash. I'm afraid I don't share the optimism of a Sharks 'revival' although I would like them to win and dent the Reds semi-final aspirations. As stated last week they now have ONE ONLY point they can afford to drop before the semis if they hope to qualify. Every other match effectively requires a full house of 5 points. Very tall order.

Add this to the reality that they are far from unbeatable at home as well as the fact that the Reds meet them at sea level AFTER winning their 'first game off the plane' and this has the makings of an 'itchy bum' event.