How to pick a big outsider?

eramutsamaya wrote:

heinrich wrote: Thought id put this up here...

Last night i was doing my nightly reseach and came upon this thread. Back in the day i was adamant about the effects of weights in racing. These days i hardly ever look at the weights. I still do but not as in depth. Yet i find my new methods to be more successful than in the past. Anyways...i did some research of my approach to finding Longshots in recent times. The other day i found Gumede on a 50/1 at Scottsville. Last night i looked at the appies and saw...APPY STRYDOM on GOOD RHYTHM...ch3cked the price and saw 12/1. Looked at his last run,thought it was good. but unfortunately i did not have a bet since i didnt trust the appy. Anyways...What HK RACING has thought me is that WEIGHT MATTERS ALOT in racing...But mostly in SPRINTS. Distances between 1000-1400 is where most appies excel especially on Fast tracks. So a half decent appy with a front runner on a fast track can make you some good bucks in the future. So for those seeking LONGSHOTS why not try this method in the near future amd see how it works out...it also helps to back horses of Trainers who specialise in Sprints like Goosen/Magner/Spies/Peter ect

Goodluck

Interesting
What about the actual weight of the horse???
I have seen horses losing weight by 30-40kg whilst handicapper adjustment is usually 4kg or so.

I have seen HKJC give us all the info on historical horse weights and Singapore Turf Club started giving us the info about horse weights recently. Not sure why this info is private in South african racing circles.

You wonder why some horses with no form whatsover go on to win going away after late backing.
One horse was backed at Leicester last week from 40/1 to 4/1 and won with a lot of petrol in tank. I went on to look at the (poor) form (again) and nothing would motivate me like gear change etc. What usually triggers massive improvement in performance in such scenarios?

Muhtiman wrote: ......could write a book on this subject.....but basically there are many factors in play that influence capability....and for me a horse needs to have a bit of genetic influence.....and not meaning that has to have the top sire with the best mare....there are imo many horses that have no chance of winning a race let alone getting to a track.....those that have capability could have other issues that gives them little chance of featuring.....but that aside too many punters are under the belief that a horse has to be backed to show that they are not a no hoper.....and these guys seldom find a longshot.....no money for horses can be because horse is hidden well.....connections have no clue.....or breakdown in communication(connection not on hand to pull the trigger)....and this saying that horses make fools of us only because a) clueless b) shrewdness c)mistake.....that bomb that dropped yesterday imo had plenty genetic capability and if I did not play field could of added it in at no 5 of selections only based on ped... in fact it was in my swinger play and I was miffed with the payout as this horse was deliberately hidden.....a more recent trend I see with high place value but exotics paying way below value....:ohmy:

Bob Brogan wrote: This is so comical,if you want i will create a private forum for the shy guys...

It will cost you R1000 per month to use it,let me know what you think ..

walking away shaking my fucking head..

heinrich wrote: On the Topic of WEIGHT....How well is ALEX THE GREAT in tmrw based on his last run. Its a pity the race is over 1200m and not 1000m again. But watch the 1st two races...if the track is fast enough and the frontrunners have an advantage than ATG is a GOOD EW BET on the card.

Magi wrote: Alex the Great was throwing his head all around .... looking unhappy.... and as far as I am concerned he was running on the dead side of the track