How to pick a big outsider?

heinrich Wrote:

---

> hibernia Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > My Nana used to back the purple or Lilac
> > colours..#gamblinglegend
>
>
> hibs theres an old granny at my local to...she
> just bet grey horses...also back jocks with plain
> red caps.Her luck is unbelievable.

Take your wife and family to the track for their first time and see how much they win normally with their birthday numbers , always fun to see how they can punt 4 horses in a 7 horse field and yes , with my money and make a profit end of the day and keep it with the money you gave them to punt with

Blouperd Wrote:

---

> heinrich Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > hibernia Wrote:
> >
>

---

>
> >

---

> > > My Nana used to back the purple or Lilac
> > > colours..#gamblinglegend
> >
> >
> > hibs theres an old granny at my local to...she
> > just bet grey horses...also back jocks with
> plain
> > red caps.Her luck is unbelievable.
>
> Take your wife and family to the track for their
> first time and see how much they win normally with
> their birthday numbers , always fun to see how
> they can punt 4 horses in a 7 horse field and yes
> , with my money and make a profit end of the day
> and keep it with the money you gave them to punt
> with


ive learned never to argue with them.have seen some strange stuff happen with old people and horses.their luck is unreal.

I might have told this story before, but as Elvis can testify, we went to the track one day and his buds / family came from Zimbabwe to see Rod Stewart performing that Saturday night; there was a horse (of Grant Maroun I seem to recall) running named Maggie Kay that won going away at 50/1 to some very loud cheers from the box ....:

Regarding finding those outsiders, I believe most times it's the same as the lotto; you need some luck, and while studying form and weight etc, etc, is of course important, sometimes in racing it's better to be lucky than clever...it does happen that the odds-on favorite just gets up by a nose to beat that longshot you found (or vice versa) ..... I suppose that's what makes us come back for more week after week.....and by the way I think it is nice card on the Vaal sand tomorrow -

Willow Magic currently 20/1 for the SA Nursery, this horse will start a lot shorter in the betting. Admittedly Red Ray is the horse to beat but at 5/10, coming up from the Cape - stranger things have happened.

Hein


for me the days of "small" exotic plays are dead. The days when all of us took a straight line pa and then built upwards are no longer an option. My pa today cost R6480 and i am going 432 times and paying in BUT cutting out is NOT an option some results can only be found by flooding the race with numbers. I have doubled up and trebled up most races today but had only 1 gone through then i would still be in.

Having said that @ fairview i took a pa with 30 000 lines and went out 1 leg. That leg was impossible, i hope i am making sense, for me it works lots of numbers and small % doubling trebling all day long.

jackpot is different, i like the way blouperd structures them, very seldom i add into his jp. I do sometimes cut it down a bit but still take his.

Pick 6 and i dont get along in 37 years of punting i have caught less than 5 pick 6's

EASY i completely get what you are saying...Since ive increased my P6 Perms ive won so much more....for this month alone ive won 9 out of 15 big P6's meanwhile my small P6 has only won 5 outta 15*.So it makes sense to rather take a bigger perm and get a smaller % from a big payout than nothing at all.its all abt strategy at the end

1) Form is obviously important, however only 40% of the reason why a horse actuallt wins. Teach yourself how to read form, handicapped form & collateral form. Use COMPUTAFORM or www.formgrids.com as your tools to find collateral form. Look at "hidden form" such as horses running from behind making up lots, horses running over wrong Course or distance or CD previously or from terrible draws previously (Abu Mashar yesterday for eg.)
2) Intent to use the form is WAY more important and make sure that Intent to use the form is there once you have established form. To do so look at JT combos, predominent coupling entries ( again Abu Mashar yesterday or Race 2 today -> Vaal Sand Magner comes to mind ) changes of Jockeys and previous same jockey form, to name but a few ways to gauge intent.
3) Value. Once 1) Form & 2) Intent have been defined make sure that there is enough 3) Value defined to constitute a bet, if not move on to the next race. An outsider to me is not necessarily a 25/1 shot BUT Value vs Risk to define a probable Risk vs Return matrix over time.

Once you have ascertained 1) Form 2) Intent and 3) Value you have a winning bet www.logicfinvalue.com

Don't take chances on exotics since inevitable you will eb caught out. Be sure that there is intent when you pick a banker or 2 horses to win a race. Race 6 yesterday Vernon Rugg I posted as banker P6 for eg.) Form & Intent together must be extremely high to get a banker in a P6 Vaal today for eg short select R3# 5&1) or R6 #1,3 for the P6 )

Be smart, play safe, use your head not your heart

LL

I make Start Your Engines a fair value bet in the first today. Runs as if he will enjoy the sand and has the right breeding for a sand sprint.

Tipster Wrote:

---

> I make Start Your Engines a fair value bet in the
> first today. Runs as if he will enjoy the sand and
> has the right breeding for a sand sprint.


I won the qrt in the 1st race with 5horses boxed...excluded the 2 SYE as on my breeding chart for sand Joshua Dancer progeny doesnt act on Sand.On what basis did you like it on breeding?The dam side?

@ BLOUPERD

There was 2 examples on the card today of my way of picking outsiders....hope you got them!I got 1 and underestimated the other....but 45/1 is good enough for me

heinrich Wrote:

---

> Tipster Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > I make Start Your Engines a fair value bet in
> the
> > first today. Runs as if he will enjoy the sand
> and
> > has the right breeding for a sand sprint.
>
>
> I won the qrt in the 1st race with 5horses
> boxed...excluded the 2 SYE as on my breeding chart
> for sand Joshua Dancer progeny doesnt act on
> Sand.On what basis did you like it on breeding?The
> dam side?

I find that the Danzig Sire line generally does well in sand races 1400m and below - however perhaps this sire was more influenced by his female line which is a very un-sand like as it has European and SA origins.

Heinrich... not being rude or funny, maybe I'm being dumb (as usual ), I'm just simply trying to clarify... what exactly is your way of picking outsiders, just essentially reading the form?