How to pick a big outsider?

These are the ones we all love, watching a 20 to one shot or higher win and we've got something on it. How can we find these lurkers? Any tips?

LD, I look for horses that perform at certain tracks or weather conditions. They may have no form their past few starts but they have not been on their prefered track so their odds due to their current form will be higher.

@LD:

Ask Umlilo! (Heh! Heh!) (

The problem is; when we do come across a likely outsider, we hesitate to back it at 'normal stakes'.

For instance, on a horse in the betting between 2 - 5 to 1, we would stake (small punter) R10 win and R50 place. With a 50-1 outsider, the win will drop to maybe R2 and place R10 (sort of Rand averaging / leveraging?). We tend to see the ideal 'pot' and not what we should be aiming for..... the makhulu pot.... full R10 win and R50 place!

Watch for my 'outsiders' tomorrow! ()


(tu)

LD this is one of the most simple things that can be done. harry has pick thousand and never fail

step 1 - go to a bookmaker
step 2 - go to any race than he has on the boards
step 3 - look at the bottom of the board
step 4 - pick the horse of your choice.

you now have picked the big outsider. congratulations

Some moderate horses take to sand and you can get a good price if you know which ones will.

There is less friction on sand so turn of foot is blunted.

That's why USA horses have been bred to run virtually flat out the whole way.

Converting that to SA racing you will find that horses that lie handy on turf but then stay on at one pace and end just out of the placings, or within a reasonable margin of the winner, usually do well on sand.

It is also remarkable how horses that are from the Danzig sire line do well in sprint races on sand, while those from the Mr Prsopector sire line do well in all races on sand.

Here is a list of Mr Prospector and Danzig line sires in SA (although not fully up to date).

Mr Prospector Sires
Right Approach
Western Winter
Kahal
Count Dubois
Windrush
Goldkeeper
Atso
Surging River
Fusaichi Pegasus
Muhtafal
West Man
Lecture
Miesque’s Approval
What A Prospect
Malhub
Hobb Alwahtan
Fan Club’s Mister
Clash By Night
Parade Leader
Modus Vivendi
Tiger Hunt (female line)
Albarahin (female line)

Danzig Sires
National Assembly
National Emblem
Dynasty
Fanatic Dane
Joshua Dancer
Dylan Thomas
Bezrin
Classic Flag
Announce
Sarge
Alado
Newton
Way West
Lizard Island
Fastnet Rock
Makaarem
Oratorio

Fantastic thread and some wonderful advice. Umlilo hit the nail on the head. I have kept records of my bets for many years and have found that my profits does not come from short priced horses but from the longer priced choices. Here is the problem though: If you back only odds on horses with an average price of 8-10 and you attain a strike rate of 50% you will rarely have a losing streak of more than 7 or 8. Of course you will also lose money hand over fist but it "feels" if you are doing alright(especially if you dont keep careful records). On the other hand if you back horses at an average price of 10-1 and you achieve a strike rate of 12% you will do very well over the long haul but you can expect many dry spells of 30+ losers in a row. This of course saps not only your bankroll but also your confidence and your morale. We therefore tend to bet bet the maximum on short priced choices and less on the longer priced ones, thereby negating our advantage. The key is to ALWAYS KEEP RECORDS and to make your own book beforehand. If you make a horse 2-1 and the bookie price the horse at 10-1 DO NOT LOWER YOUR STAKE. This is a huge overlay and should be pounced upon. This assumes that you know what you are doing of course. From what I have seen on this site over the years, there are many people here who are extremely skilled in the art of picking overlays but I wonder how many have the discipline to keep records and the money management skills to show a profit. Please note that I am not suggesting that money can not be made from shorter priced horses, it is just that I find it more difficult to do so and I suspect it is the same for most other punters. The key is to find the value. If you make a horse 6-10 and the bookie has it priced up at 12-10 it is a100% overlay and a wonderful opportunity but for me these are few and far between.

i always look carefully at a horse drawn in the first 5 at Greyville in races under 1600m especially if it showed pace and if an appy is now on. Also a horse that has sprinted well but then has lost form and the trainer has put it over ground and then tries sprinting again. I am also a follower of Blinkers over sprints and tongue ties. You find value in these type of horses BUT my first port of call is always why the Fav(form horse) can beat beat rather than looking for spooks. The obvious is sometimes the safest and more profitable route.

My best tip in my short punting career is make your choices before looking at the betting. I bet the same amount per race so it doesn't effect my emotions. Another reason I love using formgrids as the odds are not visible.

Very Interesting topic.Love reading stuff like this.

To find one standout outsider every race is very difficult, tried it for years and came up broke end of the day , now I play jackpot and like most will know I hit the outsiders quite a lot
my theory :
1)Favorites: Identify false favorites , check collateral form and check how many horses beaten the fav before , include them , and include the horses that have beaten the horses that have beaten the fav also (:S sorry, hope it make sense)(Dankie Jannie)
2) 99% appies cannot ride from behind , so if he is on a single figures on a horse running from behind the upset is likely to happen especially if their is few appie fancied rides in the race and especially in a handicap.( Thank you Striker)
3) Biggest upsets comes in handicap races , if horse had a appie or kak jockey on last time and now a decent jock ,then put him in ,horses are handicapped on previous runs , with better jock and better handicap then improvement is likely(Dankie Striker)
4) never leave out lightly raced maidens that is supported especially over ground in their first 5 starts ( Thanks Mawing)
5) Decent breds / expensive horses with no form in maiden races over ground must be included. (thanx Suleman)
6) Pinnacle / novice / graduation races is normally won(90%) by first 3 in the betting - wast of time searching for outsider ( Dankie Agra)
7) never leave out striker , marcus or top 10 trainers , top 10 trainers don't waste time with soupmeat , if their is no form , then the work at home shows ability and striker and marcus do not ride anything if they do not have a chance ( Dankie Charles)
if top jocks especially marcus and striker couldnt win on a horse 3+ times before , he will probably never win with the horse , the horse will start fav but it will be false fav because if they cannot win with it , nobody else will ( dankie Zietsman)
9) Know whats going on at the stables ( Thank you myself)
10)See what the "experts" like and find out why , sometimes they do hit that outsider
11) Get a very good handicapper to work out the handicap what it should be and how previous formlines holding up

Hope you find it commendable

back a horse to do something it can't do and hope for luck....

i look at the fixed odds compared to win/place payouts (tabgold) & if see a 20/1 paying way below R20 i will keep watching until a few mins till off time... my logic says if a 20/1 should be paying far more than R20 on the tote so why is it paying R15 (arguements sake)???.

I compare all the odds against the win/place payout and this way try to find a nice roughie