How to pick a big outsider?

neigh Wrote:

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> Eye's closed dropping my pen NOW !!
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And... whats the lucky number?

3 haha Dont go mad !!

Of course I put in 10 horses sometimes, infect I have taken pas as follows


2x 6x 16 x 4 x 14 x 2 x 14

Wouter Wrote:

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> Remember the one day, a mate and myself went to
> Greyville (had nothing better to do) didnt have
> any race cards or anything, sat at the parade
> ring, watched the horses - he selected his 1st 2
> favourites and I selected my 2...
>
> In the end those same four came out in that order
> - quartet paid 10000 and we didn't have a single
> cent on the running, needless to say the following
> bets that we placed were all losing ones...
>
> -
>
> However when selecting outsiders I generally look
> at the last 3/4 runs (3/4 being earliest run and 1
> being latest run)
> runs 3-4 need to be competitive finishing around
> 1-3 lengths behind the winner - then runs 1-2 need
> to finish around 5-10 lengths behind eventual
> winner placing 4-9 - then next time out the horse
> should run into the money at generally decent
> odds.
> Unfortunately it does not happen all the time, and
> this I need to look into, to try and tweak my
> success rate with these type of runs... i.e. check
> if it works best if it is due to coming back from
> rests, gear change etc... sure I could refine it
> to make for better success rates...
>
> Take yesterday for example
> R1 Royal Roy won (not a big priced runner but
> followed similar form line) R5.30Win R2.20Place
> R2 Swift Bow R3.90Place
> R3 - bush - Commissioner Street
> R4 - None with said form line
> R5 - Hang fire R10.80Win R3.50Place
> R6 - bush - Mabuko Spirit
> R7 - None with said form line - however check
> Rivulets run behind Bay princess same formline
> R8 - bush - Greys Anatomy
>
> LOL - first time I'm actually checking full stats
> like above - based on this may need to focus on
> the maiden plates with such formline...I can
> recall calling Udumo the once at R32.90 a win on
> the tote and had some dollars on it... (formgrids
> could perhaps assist here)

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To follow on this form

Race 4 No 8 Lola Bud R8.60Win R2.70 a place

Horses I rate to follow in the up and coming races Race 7 No 2 & Race 8 no 4

These may not be rank outsiders, but IMO I think they can offer some value at R2.00+ a place

I enjoyed reading this post....(tu)
we cannot penalise a person because he does not fancy or want to post....
I'm the only sane person here....<

Not really outsiders, but I like following Maidens which have been backed 1st time out and dnt even place..like starsspangeled banner 4 eg.. Ran in debut, backed to fav, below par performance..wins next two starts.

Madji then I must also be right Varlet is bottom of the boards

?.......Geez I,m missing out here.......I constantly find the rough stuff........and when I posted or put them on HB some okes really thumped them and there was not value as real outsiders any more.......maybe I should get into this FB media thang and charge a subscription to bunch of guys......never .....that would just not get the value I currently enjoy.......

Flash Harry Wrote:

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> LD this is one of the most simple things that can
> be done. harry has pick thousand and never fail
>
> step 1 - go to a bookmaker
> step 2 - go to any race than he has on the boards
> step 3 - look at the bottom of the board
> step 4 - pick the horse of your choice.
>
> you now have picked the big outsider.
> congratulations


Ha ha. Love it:P

hiya

Does Billy Ho have a chance in the Oaks?
On Tuesday night at HW this horse was quoted at 100/1.
This morning on First Call,BW posted 40/1.Excellent 5th last time in the trial.

Hi Hibs, apologies for taking so long to respond.

Before I start let me just say the following:

Sorry for hijacking this thread but this issue has been raised here as well as on other threads as well. Also before I'm accused of also being a lurker and non-contributor, you really don't want my tips/fancies and also the last time I punted was mid-2011 (long story) so I've not been leeching on people's tips. There are people here who's knowledge of the game is so vast - been decades in the game - that you really don't want to stand out as a moron.

OK, let's get started - I have a great ability to waffle so I'll try my best to keep this brief!

When I first came to ABC, the first thing I noticed was that the front door was open - you didn't need to register and if you did take the time to register you didn't need to login to read all the posts. The more I thought about it the more it bothered me. Eventually my curiosity got the better of me and I downloaded Phorum5 from the developer's website. What I wanted was to see the backend of the site, like Hibs & Scotia can.

So I installed Phorum into a virtual web server on my machine. I now had a mini ABC, if you will. However I just did a rough install, didn't set up emailing correctly which resulted in me not being able to set up/add regular users - I only had one user, me (admin). No problem really, so far so good. Started populating the site with threads, posts, replies etc. Surfed to the site, working fine, could read forum, post etc.

Now started poking about in the backend (:S) there discovered this setting:



Configured like this, it meant that anybody browsing the site (Public Users) would be able to read the site without having to register/login.

Disabled this setting: [IOW, OK lurkers the free ride is over ]



Now logged out, then trying to browse the site, no joy, couldn't read posts, told to login. Great! That's what we want.

Next, tried to find a setting that would display currently logged in members in the bottom section (just above the footer) of the index.php page, like some BB software allows one to do - no luck at all, couldn't find that setting anywhere. This would be such a great feature because it would allow everybody to see at a glance who is currently logged in.

For the following one had to use ABC (no regular user on my system) - there's a setting in the Control Center under "Edit My Privacy Options"



which allows a registered user to toggle off "Allow other users to see when I am logged in"

Mmmmm :S back to square one - apparently the only way to get around this is to delete a block of code (maybe better to comment out that snippet of code) which would remove this option for regular users but retain it for admin users. Can't vouch for that as I was not able to try it myself.

To sum up.......

I understand that Phorum is lightweight and fast but it would have been much nicer if it had just a few extra features IMHO.

As far as ABC is concerned the way its set up atm, for many people (i.e. the lurkers) there's no real incentive to register/login if one can have full access to all the content posted there. I am guilty of that myself - I'm often too lazy to login and just browse all the latest threads/posts without logging in. All my admiration goes out to all the members who day-in and day-out login and post, they really deserve better from the rest of us. [PS How many lurkers are there on ABC? 1, 5, 10? Who knows?]

My suggestion therefore is that consideration should be given to making it a requirement that ALL members so be required, at the very least, to login and that it should not be a choice.

As far as the issue of members not contributing, "would this help?" - no, it definitely will not. I'm definitely with Loopy's call for a collective effort for the benefit of everybody but Pirhobeta also makes a valid point about not being able to force people to contribute.

Finally, looking back I came across a post by Scotia from 2007 which addressed (amongst other things) this very issue, so it's been there for quite awhile.

"... and last Tuesday we had 1,814 individual visitors in one day and many don't post as it can be intimidating at times."

Anyway, enough of my bs.....

Dirham,

Spot on, in terms of the wonders of technology.

Every transaction can be traced and governed with the final result influenced.

Lotto....2 winners....1 in a million....questionable but possible , but 2 in 10 million.....go figure

Einstein would boggle his mind at this.