How to pick a big outsider?

Thanks for the reply Tipster.much appreciated.

Yes Englander....Form is a start...but the most important things i look at is C&D form and weight....I found 2 big outsiders today...Rivulet(on weight) and Spectroscope(on weight and breeding) i lost the P6 with Rivulet as i thought MS and F will be a little better as R was way out at the weights...but S was a complete giveaway.On turf its mostly abt the weight diffrence,but having said that theres alota factors as each outsider VB i find differs....on sand its all abt the Breeding...like Tipster pointed out....SAND = 70% breeding 30% Form

...And some common sense lol.like i said previously...nobody loses a p6 with marcus,delpech,striker,ect study the lesser fancies jockeys as most outsiders they ride

heinrich Wrote:

---

> Yes Englander....Form is a start...but the most
> important things i look at is C&D form and
> weight....I found 2 big outsiders
> today...Rivulet(on weight) and Spectroscope(on
> weight and breeding) i lost the P6 with Rivulet as
> i thought MS and F will be a little better as R
> was way out at the weights...but S was a complete
> giveaway.On turf its mostly abt the weight
> diffrence,but having said that theres alota
> factors as each outsider VB i find differs....on
> sand its all abt the Breeding...like Tipster
> pointed out....SAND = 70% breeding 30% Form

I really want your explanation as we all here are fools who would love to learn more . Please explain:
Rivulet(on weight)- How can you said she have a great chance on weights if she is OUT OF THE WEIGHTS ON HANDICAP WITH 8 RUNNERS BETWEEN 2,5KG (3,75 LENGHS ) TO 6,5KG ( 9,75 LENGHS )
Spectroscope(on weight and breeding)
- on breeding ? 3 Spectrum horses in race? When did Elliodor became the ultimate sand damsire?
-on weight ? he dropped in a years time from a MR65 to a MR63 ? NO CLAIM.
-on form? 2 runs for new stable , only run on sand was pathetic(22lenghs behind) 3 weeks ago and 5 days ago run 14 lenghs behind 3rd last and now 5 days later he is a good thing?

Please explain your philosophy , please bowl me out , you really have me hooked with your explanation after almost 40 years in this game

Lol blou you said it all

Now let me make my name total ass here, they say horses for courses and certain joks do well on certain horses. Saterday race 9- Varlet. G.Lerena has done very well on this one so 25-1 is value guys and that's how I pick a outsider.

Blouperd Wrote:

---

> heinrich Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > Yes Englander....Form is a start...but the most
> > important things i look at is C&D form and
> > weight....I found 2 big outsiders
> > today...Rivulet(on weight) and Spectroscope(on
> > weight and breeding) i lost the P6 with Rivulet
> as
> > i thought MS and F will be a little better as R
> > was way out at the weights...but S was a
> complete
> > giveaway.On turf its mostly abt the weight
> > diffrence,but having said that theres alota
> > factors as each outsider VB i find
> differs....on
> > sand its all abt the Breeding...like Tipster
> > pointed out....SAND = 70% breeding 30% Form
>
> I really want your explanation as we all here are
> fools who would love to learn more . Please
> explain:
> Rivulet(on weight)- How can you said she have a
> great chance on weights if she is OUT OF THE
> WEIGHTS ON HANDICAP WITH 8 RUNNERS BETWEEN 2,5KG
> (3,75 LENGHS ) TO 6,5KG ( 9,75 LENGHS )
> Spectroscope(on weight and breeding)
> - on breeding ? 3 Spectrum horses in race? When
> did Elliodor became the ultimate sand damsire?
> -on weight ? he dropped in a years time from a
> MR65 to a MR63 ? NO CLAIM.
> -on form? 2 runs for new stable , only run on sand
> was pathetic(22lenghs behind) 3 weeks ago and 5
> days ago run 14 lenghs behind 3rd last and now 5
> days later he is a good thing?
>
> Please explain your philosophy , please bowl me
> out , you really have me hooked with your
> explanation after almost 40 years in this game


With you on this Blouperd. Be interesting to hear Heinrichs response.

Would also be interesting to see how both these horses perform next time out, or will they now be rested.

Even more interesting would be to see the results of specimens, that is IF specimens were taken for analysis.

After studying the form of Rivulet I think I have the reason for her win - Four legs and a Tail......

A point that is missing (me thinks!):

There is a vast distinction between finding an outsider for a straight bet....

and....


finding and including (in a perm) such for an exotic (JP, P6, Quartets, etc), where the selections are whittled down to / spread upwards 2 or more (or the field!).

For instance, I also had Rivulet amongst my first three but settled with Formation!


Therefore, the 'intent' of the player also is pivotal;

you going for the exotic or a straight 50-1?

umlilo Wrote:

---

> A point that is missing (me thinks!):
>
> There is a vast distinction between finding an
> outsider for a straight bet....
>
> and....
>
>
> finding and including (in a perm) such for an
> exotic (JP, P6, Quartets, etc), where the
> selections are whittled down to / spread upwards 2
> or more (or the field!).
>
> For instance, I also had Rivulet amongst my first
> three but settled with Formation!
>
>
> Therefore, the 'intent' of the player also is
> pivotal;
>
> you going for the exotic or a straight 50-1?


Good point. I always take a small win bet and float with exactas if i like a outsider. There is little value on place on tote if you are a small player. Exacta and quartet has more value!

Firstly, Heinrich thanks for the response...(s)

I would like to say I found Rivulet (and mentioned it on the daily thread... was about all I did find mind you but it was enough to see me in profit for the day ( ) And as any idiot can tell you, I know nothing really about form and I freely admit to that. I primarily use time and draw when looking for an outsider. I no longer have access to WF online's card so can't elaborate on my reasons for thinking it had a chance, but 4 legs and a tail do help Mr H

With regard to Spectroscope. Again, from memory, I had a quick look after the event, the race on sand you refer to BP, Silver Specialist was also in that race and was also well beaten. Spectroscope did have a significant pull in the weights on SS, but when they are that far behind the winner it is often difficult to know which or both horses were not ridden to the line and when, if they did, the jockey eased up. I didn't pick up on it pre-race but feel I perhaps should have as SS was my e/w selection in the race. It follows then that in my simple way of thinking Spectroscope would also have had a chance. What would not have helped was the very wide draw but at its price I may well have chanced a rand or two.

Now, BP and LL, who have responded above, are two clanners whose selections I have total respect for and I can understand their "bemusement". They study hard and are successful. Unfortunately, they play exotics big and that is not normally my game so when they mention an outsider in a race it is often one of 4 or 5 they have included and I won't go back and look at the form again. If they make specific reference to one then that is often different and I may look again and follow sometimes or follow blind. Magi is a wizard at finding decent priced horses. Work commitments have perhaps (until yesterday ) curtailed his success rate a little of late but, having asked him sometimes how he found one, it is often nothing to do with form with him either, he has an uncanny ability for having a feeling when a stable or whatever might be running a big lurker... it is often to do with jockey bookings, equipment changes, courses etc etc but it is rare he will say... got beaten 2 lengths by Shergar and that should be good enough.

And this is where I, to an extent, disagree with what Easy said... an outsider to me is often about value. It is not necessarily the horse that I think will win (same with correct scores on football CnC lol). Rivulet was not in my first three selections but I saw it as a horse with a chance at good odds. The horse I was actually very keen on, Rebel Queen, ran its worst race for some time and trailed in over 20 lengths behind... and that to me is much stranger than Rivulet winning. Again as Magi would say, it is often just as important to know why a more fancied one won't win than why another horse will win. If, for eg, you can take a 6/10 fav out of an 8-runner field it leaves a lot of potential value in the other 7 runners.

Not sure I've come to any conclusions there, I just ramble lol, make up your own minds! but let us not get into arguments over this, use or don't use others advice and don't criticise others, we all have different methods and what we should be doing is helping each other. As BP says (I am with Mac in being honoured sir, thank you), there is no better feeling in racing than seeing one of our selections win at big odds, so lets work together to increase the number of times that happens... (tu)

And now I've rambled on again (too!!!!) long enough me thinks

Blouperd Wrote:

---

> heinrich Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > Yes Englander....Form is a start...but the most
> > important things i look at is C&D form and
> > weight....I found 2 big outsiders
> > today...Rivulet(on weight) and Spectroscope(on
> > weight and breeding) i lost the P6 with Rivulet
> as
> > i thought MS and F will be a little better as R
> > was way out at the weights...but S was a
> complete
> > giveaway.On turf its mostly abt the weight
> > diffrence,but having said that theres alota
> > factors as each outsider VB i find
> differs....on
> > sand its all abt the Breeding...like Tipster
> > pointed out....SAND = 70% breeding 30% Form
>
> I really want your explanation as we all here are
> fools who would love to learn more . Please
> explain:
> Rivulet(on weight)- How can you said she have a
> great chance on weights if she is OUT OF THE
> WEIGHTS ON HANDICAP WITH 8 RUNNERS BETWEEN 2,5KG
> (3,75 LENGHS ) TO 6,5KG ( 9,75 LENGHS )
> Spectroscope(on weight and breeding)
> - on breeding ? 3 Spectrum horses in race? When
> did Elliodor became the ultimate sand damsire?
> -on weight ? he dropped in a years time from a
> MR65 to a MR63 ? NO CLAIM.
> -on form? 2 runs for new stable , only run on sand
> was pathetic(22lenghs behind) 3 weeks ago and 5
> days ago run 14 lenghs behind 3rd last and now 5
> days later he is a good thing?
>
> Please explain your philosophy , please bowl me
> out , you really have me hooked with your
> explanation after almost 40 years in this game


I am only 41 years old now BL < but after 23 years of analysing form I am also checking here regularly to learn from Heinrich (tu)

On picking an outsider I have a place outsider today in the form of Amber Head (25/1)
1) Ony trainer for the day
2) Intent on picking the appie D Lee (who had a winner with Humby at R19,80 20 april Kenilworth)
3) Decent swing in the weights between Amber Head & the favo so as Englandr says "the value lies there"

Also think R4#7 Crawford (14/1) and R5#2 Divas Daughter (8/1) is decent value vs odds

Guys I totally agree with Englander that a combined effort is extremely important for us to all take advantage of it.. Yesterday again I was not utterley amused of the amount of posts vs the amount of "views" on ABC.. I guess to find the correct ratio of Views vs posts is very difficult since we all check in and see what another say every time something is said so really hard to gauge.

However I do feel if you have a "strong feeling" (Madji baseball bat stuff} that could potentially help other clanners then please do speak up. (even if that is after you have taken your fixed price) This forum is awesome and if we all collectively participate it could be even better!

I would certainly love to see a comp (Hollybucks or ABC or perhaps I should start it on LogicFinValue) where we could get all clanners to post their selection for winning the following race (in the last 30 minutes before the race transpires) I for one feel that we are way more accurate as new information comes to hand and as the day unfolds I certainly become the wiser for it...

Anyway, thanks for all's contributions in making ABC an awesome site (Hibs did not pay me to say so)

And BIG caution on picking the exotics today guys, massive caution... if the PA pays less than R500,00 today I will stop posting ...