How to pick a big outsider?

Morning all, like to read this stuff. I took my two daughters to Turffontein about three years ago. I always involved them when it was July or Met day, and asked them to select a horse they like from the photos, in the newspapers. On this particular day I asked them to look at the horses when they came out and make their selection. Out of a 12 race program they had 8 outright winners en four places. Made me feel like the donkey!

Easy to pick big outsiders---- just read my posts LOL;)

Hein


for me the days of "small" exotic plays are dead. The days when all of us took a straight line pa and then built upwards are no longer an option. My pa today cost R6480 and i am going 432 times and paying in BUT cutting out is NOT an option some results can only be found by flooding the race with numbers. I have doubled up and trebled up most races today but had only 1 gone through then i would still be in.

Having said that @ fairview i took a pa with 30 000 lines and went out 1 leg. That leg was impossible, i hope i am making sense, for me it works lots of numbers and small % doubling trebling all day long.

jackpot is different, i like the way blouperd structures them, very seldom i add into his jp. I do sometimes cut it down a bit but still take his.

Pick 6 and i dont get along in 37 years of punting i have caught less than 5 pick 6's

Hi Easy and Everybody on this excellent and informative site, the knowledge and experience that you all have is amazing, i am still learning myself. I have a question on the above thread, which i hope you can help me with. How do you structure your big PA's especially when playing in PE (Fairview) - do you banker at all, or go short (like 2 or 3 in a leg) and go wide in the others, and if you go wide how wide is wide....(eg do you ever select 10 horses in a leg?) sorry i might be asking and answering the question but just trying to add context - thank you for responding and any info is appreciated.

Ill answer all question above within the course of the day....quick answer to UMLILO....

I didnt just add Spectroscope in my P6...I told my clients....'I am having an eW bet on Spectroscope....than gave my reasons why...than advised them to have an ew bet aswell.

Busy with kenilworth now....so ill read and answer all the above later.

@Blouperd....you clearly dont grasp what i said abt weight

Remember the one day, a mate and myself went to Greyville (had nothing better to do) didnt have any race cards or anything, sat at the parade ring, watched the horses - he selected his 1st 2 favourites and I selected my 2...

In the end those same four came out in that order - quartet paid 10000 and we didn't have a single cent on the running, needless to say the following bets that we placed were all losing ones...

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However when selecting outsiders I generally look at the last 3/4 runs (3/4 being earliest run and 1 being latest run)
runs 3-4 need to be competitive finishing around 1-3 lengths behind the winner - then runs 1-2 need to finish around 5-10 lengths behind eventual winner placing 4-9 - then next time out the horse should run into the money at generally decent odds.
Unfortunately it does not happen all the time, and this I need to look into, to try and tweak my success rate with these type of runs... i.e. check if it works best if it is due to coming back from rests, gear change etc... sure I could refine it to make for better success rates...

Take yesterday for example
R1 Royal Roy won (not a big priced runner but followed similar form line) R5.30Win R2.20Place
R2 Swift Bow R3.90Place
R3 - bush - Commissioner Street
R4 - None with said form line
R5 - Hang fire R10.80Win R3.50Place
R6 - bush - Mabuko Spirit
R7 - None with said form line - however check Rivulets run behind Bay princess same formline
R8 - bush - Greys Anatomy

LOL - first time I'm actually checking full stats like above - based on this may need to focus on the maiden plates with such formline...I can recall calling Udumo the once at R32.90 a win on the tote and had some dollars on it... (formgrids could perhaps assist here)

Further to what Loopy is saying, maybe its time for Hibs to flip this switch?



Would it help? Not sure really

Blouperd Wrote:

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> heinrich Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Yes Englander....Form is a start...but the most
> > important things i look at is C&D form and
> > weight....I found 2 big outsiders
> > today...Rivulet(on weight) and Spectroscope(on
> > weight and breeding) i lost the P6 with Rivulet
> as
> > i thought MS and F will be a little better as R
> > was way out at the weights...but S was a
> complete
> > giveaway.On turf its mostly abt the weight
> > diffrence,but having said that theres alota
> > factors as each outsider VB i find
> differs....on
> > sand its all abt the Breeding...like Tipster
> > pointed out....SAND = 70% breeding 30% Form
>
> I really want your explanation as we all here are
> fools who would love to learn more . Please
> explain:
> Rivulet(on weight)- How can you said she have a
> great chance on weights if she is OUT OF THE
> WEIGHTS ON HANDICAP WITH 8 RUNNERS BETWEEN 2,5KG
> (3,75 LENGHS ) TO 6,5KG ( 9,75 LENGHS )
> Spectroscope(on weight and breeding)
> - on breeding ? 3 Spectrum horses in race? When
> did Elliodor became the ultimate sand damsire?
> -on weight ? he dropped in a years time from a
> MR65 to a MR63 ? NO CLAIM.
> -on form? 2 runs for new stable , only run on sand
> was pathetic(22lenghs behind) 3 weeks ago and 5
> days ago run 14 lenghs behind 3rd last and now 5
> days later he is a good thing?
>
> Please explain your philosophy , please bowl me
> out , you really have me hooked with your
> explanation after almost 40 years in this game


RIVULET: simple example WHY i liked RIVULET...

If i have 10kgs in each hand and run 100m ill run it in 25secs.If i run without the weight ill run it in 15secs....you understand what i mean??? WEIGHT-means in terms of the weight the horse carried previously...NOT on handicapping in the race.Ive got a Horse to follow book where i rate horses....Rivulet got a 5* rating(highest) for its 2nd last run behind Bay Princess when finishing like a bullet train....so if she carries lighter weight shouldnt she finish much faster????Also MS and F are known front runners so there was always gona be pace(in her favour)
WHY did i leave her out- simply becoz i had the same argument as you above

SPECTROSCOPE- i have a SaND CHArT with what i use to rate every runner.SPECTRUMS are top of the blocks....you remarks abt ELLIODOR....i suggest stop bitching and go do some homework....as for the form on Spectro....was there for ALL to see

@Englander I also liked SS in that race....but was committed to RTC and DK as winners of the race....than i saw the weight,breeding and general way of running of Spectro....sometimes stuff just catches my eye and than i get that ggggooooooddd feling abt it....

@heinrich:

'....quick answer to UMLILO....'

I am not critting you whatsoever!

I made the distinction between choosing a single / straight bet or more than one for exotics.

The player must decide what s/he is in it for and select accordingly.

I play only ATC/Yankees e/w, so, I hone down to just 1 selection per (chosen / identified) race.

Dirham Wrote:

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> Further to what Loopy is saying, maybe its time
> for Hibs to flip this switch?
>
> www.africanbettingclan.com/forum/phorum-5.1
> .15/file.php?3,file=1157,filename=phorum.jpg
>
> Would it help? Not sure really


?

For what its worth, the only correct post on this thread is Flash Harry's post.... go look on the bookies board and the one at the very bottom is the big outsider (tu) .... now if the thread asked 'How do you pick a big outsider which runs into the money?'..... well that is a dfferent kettle of fish

Eye's closed dropping my pen NOW !!