Was having a look at the previous July races and i noticed that the last three years have been won by Cape trainers (I stand to correction), previous four by JHB (Tarry and De Kock). Would be quite something if Crawford takes the July to balance the scales, will take a small cover on VARALLO x EDICT OF NANTES
Finally the biggest raceday of the year arrived ... its the VODACOM DURBAN JULY!!!! and here is Zietsie's opinion
Track : penetrometer 20!!!! That means rockhard and fast (handy , frontrunners will benefit) and south-southwesterly wind that means TAILWIND ...(also to the bebefit of frontrunners and handy types.)
Race 1
Very funny race to analyse and not much pacemakers in the race. Can get very tactical scrammbling for position and upset not impossible but on my ratings the best in is:
nr 2 Pool party . Not very sound this filly but i dont think Roy Magner came down from gauteng only for the sardine run. She is a handy type from a good draw. 17/2 odds , eachway value.
Nr 13 Eden gardens glitz .currently 1st reserve but if she gets in she is the one to beat.
Nr 7 cosmic burst . 7/1 odds and coming off a rest . Handy type from not too bad draw . Need to see out the 1400m but with no great pacesetters in the race can go close .
I will take floating banker/s with field in quartets
Race 2
Plenty pace in this race and they will go the clappers and stretch the field. If it wasnt for his bad draw i would have bankered nr 1 spanish captain. He is best weighted in the field . Odds 15/1 is worth an eachway . Bernard is one of the best jocks to overcome a bad draw and with so many pacesetters he can get him slotted in just behind them. The hotpot fav nr 2 Head honcho will be my 2nd choice but not worth it at even money. Outsiders i will include in double float quartet is 4 , 5, 7 , 8 , 10 , 11 , 13
Race 3
My banker of the day comes in the game and improving strong frontrunner Nr 7 Crowd Pleaser . The only natural frontrunner in the race will go to front very easy and set his own fractions and my only concern is the 300m he goes extra for the first time but with the quick track and tailwind will help him alot. I think 4/1 is a very big price. Very open if you look past him with nrs 5 and 8 the ones who can fill the placings.
Race 4
Ovidio nr 1 is best weighted but pulled up lame 2 weeks ago and thats a big concern. If Sun of africa nr 6 reproduce his last run behind mr winsome he is the horse to beat. 7/1 odds is very generous and he will either sit close up handy or make his own pace in front. Biggest threat is nr 5 Captain splendid and you dont catch striker strydom with his pants down , if you blink a moment he will outshine you, he is a master tactically.he will probably be on the heals of sun of africa and at odds 7/1 he can make them pay. Another one i like is nr 10 Kinaan ,also 7/1 and from the best stayer trainer in this country Mike de Kock yard. Box swinger and exacta with the three horses.
Quartet double or tripple float with nrs 1 2 3 4 7 8 14
Race 5
If you look outside this field and use horses not in this race as formline horses, Green plains and Best kept secret , it opens up a can of worms but gives you much better perspective on the race.
This race normally have upsets but i rate nr 4 Green top very highly. When i saw late tonight that striker is the replacement rider it gave me more confidence and will bank him in smaller exotics. I think 4/1 is great odds. If you want to add more then nrs 2 7 11 13 cant be ignored . In quartets you can add 5 9 10 12 14 in the third and fourth leg.
Race 6
Minefield race , lots of talk about nr 3 and 11 but i think any of 3 6 10 11 12 can win if im forced to choose only five horses.. What bother me is that strydom gets off the nr 11 varallo drawn 1 (he ran 2nd in a grade 1 last time on him) , to ride again the outside drawn nr 12 varimax .... varimax is 16/1 and i think its worth an eachway nibble. I will go wide in most exotics.
Race 7
I have spend days , literally days , handicapping and rated this race. I still do think the handicapper got it all wrong in the Sunmet ratings (and a few other races these horses ran in in the last 12 months).
Best weighted is Al Sahem by a small margin . My opinion he only need to jump well and smanga needs to get him handy or in front . He will smash this field in a true run race. Only his daily news run i can see a lot improvement to come. Balls to the wall , i banker him. He will make our country proud overseas after this race. Hope his farewell is a winning performance. I posted my quartets i will take earlier this week.
My one two three four is 13 al sahem 12 edict of nantes 18 safe harbour 8 its my turn..
Race 8
Track and weather conditions throwing this race wide open.
With 3 flying pacesetters in the race , Elusivenchantment , hashtag strat and varbration its going to be throatcutting from the go . If it was a fair track , and no tailwind i would have made Doing it for Dan probably the best value bet of the day. With the jockey arrangements , quick track and tail wind he have all against him . If all were equal he will smash this field any day.
With all conditions to consider the best value in the race is hashtag strat odds 12/1, stablemate of doing it for dan . Again the master Striker is on angels power odds 7/1 who will track the leaders and pounce when the least expect it but very open race with lots in with chances. Horse Guards can win but in my opinion false fav.
Race 9
Al mariachi 11/10 fav and very hard to beat. Nice horse to take doubles with . Will bank in smaller exotics but will include upsets nr 10 whorly whorly odds 13/1 and nr 12 La bella Mia odds 16/1 in bigger perms .
Race 10
Bela bela and just sensual the best 2 fillies in the race but track and weather conditions can cause havoc and and i will have 3 different quartets .
10 1 x 10 1 x 2 3 4 5 11 x 2 3 4 5 11
1 10 x 1 2 3 4 5 10 11 x field x 1 2 3 4 5 10 11
2 3 4 5 11 x 1 10 x 1 2 3 4 5 10 11 x field
Race 11
The more i look at this race the more i like nr 6 Pillar of hercules and i think 4/1 is big odds. Drawn well , lots of pacesetters to stretch field , handy type , right trainer owner jockey combo and i think tough to beat.
Race 12
Open looking race but i like alot of the stablemates from up and coming top trainer Gareth van Zyl nr 2 budapest odds 20/1 and nr 4 celtic captain odds 12/1 . Worth a swinger and exacta that will pay bombs if he can pull of a dream last race result.
Will take quartet multi 2 4 x field and float 2 and 4 with field
Will post exotics after final scratchings in the morning .
3am in the morning , i am crazy , no doubt about it . Im going to turffontein to enjoy my July day as always with wonderful people and then im off on a week holiday , first actual holiday in 9 years, im dead tired and need this week away to recharge , everyone needs/deserve a week off once a while . Im going on a hunting trip with my best pal , hope he takes a gun with.
Enjoy and lets make it yet another awesome day , especially for the once a year punters on july day!!!
Go Al Sahem Go !!!!!!
The following user(s) said Thank You: flydubai, Winning_Post, the fantasy, kt6747, Felix
Nice posting Ziets .Hope you have a very profitable and exciting July day . Like you I'm wide awake studying the card and looking forward to enjoying what should be a very special days racing . Wishing all the guys a wonderful July and wherever you are hope you have a profitable one .cheers
Morning guys, goodluck to everyone playing today,its going to be a long ass day!!!! Have a good one and be safe if ur going to the course,if you have winning tickets and are too sloshed to look after them,you xan cone drop them off with me at the One Stop Group suite and ill take care of them.... :woohoo: :silly: :whistle:
CHEERS!!!
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