JULY NEWS

Good point Alcaponee re Hunting Tower: In distance suited races on 3 occasions since July win only 2 lengths behind in Champions Cup, Met (Pocket Power) and Astrapak (River Jetez) - all when unfancied in betting - and always running on late. Even just a bit handier than last year and half the flying finish could mow them all down again!

Why did anton jump off?Had a choice last year and took HT,this year Pick 6....but we going to try to put a hurdle in his way...now at 14-1.

Alcaponee Wrote:

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> Jack do you not think that they purposely dont win
> races to keep the weight down.

Al
Hunting Tower's MR was a steady 108 since before his run in the July '06. His MR went to 112 after winning the July '07
Other than a meritorius 3rd in the Met, I don't think he's run to a 112 (or even close imho)

If you are a definite runner, not winning a minor race which would give you a penalty in the Met or July must be smart. But I don't think it ever happened in Hunting Tower's case, he's never had enough in hand (again imho)

On the surface,Russian Sage,Dancer's Daughter and Pocket Power look to be the principals.However upon probing one can clearly see that River Jetez ,Hunting Tower,Successful Bidder and Silver Mist are BIG contenders and the value clearly lies with them.Pace will play a major role and EDDINGTON will do the donkey work only for the four value horses to inhale him in the final 200m.

The only value i can see in the race is Float at 40-1, Successful Bidder, who was one of the favourites last year, at 50-1 and She's On Fire at 15-1.

Pocket Power is only worth a bet at 6/7-1. He has it all to do at the weights and is not suited to Greyville. I still think he'll be there but 7/2 is not the right price for me.

Pick 6 wont make the 1st ten, Anton or no Anton. At 28-1 Desert Links didnt beat much in his last win. Hes now 14-1 against the big guns and his value has gone.

Im dismissing all the 3 year olds for various reasons this year with Russian Sage being the best of the lot but he's got very little chance from the draw. I still think he might be suspect over the trip as well. Dancers Daughter wont stay and Eddington is drawn in the bush.

So at this stage for me its a a quartet roving 2 bankers being Pocket and Shes on Fire with Successful Bidder, Float, River Jetez, Catmandu, Buy and Sell!

The quaret is a minefield if you ask me. I broke the golden rule of punting and canelled my HT win bet.

I am going to pull a Shan Ip and say:

"BUY AND SELL WEILL WIIN THIS RACE!"

Even though my heart would like others I want something to refer back to when this happens.

Not having had a detailed look at the race yet, I will for the moment stay with my original assessment that the 3 yr olds are underrated and that a 3yr old will win this year's July; granted both Russian Sage and Gallant Gagnant have drawn wide, and Lion's Blood was really disappointing in his last start, but I still think one of them will win it.

GG is 1/2 a kg better of with RS than in the Daily News for a head beating and is also drawn slightly better (and will be coming from behind anyway); currently I think GG's odds are about double the odds of RS, so it's obvious to me where the value lies...and LB (will he get the trip?) could make them both run if back to his best (can't believe he is 50/1).

Other quartet horses imo: Tan Can, Pocket Power, Dancer's Daughter, Pick Six and perhaps Buy and Sell, Hunting Tower, River Jetez and She's on Fire.

Sometimes a real 'spook' finds a place in the July (Natural Selection last year) so

Also cant believe Lions Blood is 50's.

GC PRess Release: 25th June

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There are only three Summerveld-based horses in this year’s R3 million Vodacom Durban July, the Mike de Kock-trained Galant Gagnant, the Herman Brown-trained Lion’s Blood and the Basil Marcus-trained four-year-old Desert Links and none of them can be discounted for Africa’s Greatest Horseracing Event.



Mike de Kock, asked on Galant Gagnant’s prospects on Tuesday, put it simply, “If Russian Sage has a chance then he has a chance.”

However, De Kock questioned just how good the July three-year-olds were as he revealed that he had never previously seen Galant Gagnant as a July horse.



But he elaborated, “Everybody is talking about Russian Sage as a big runner. In the Daily News, if Galant Gagnant had been kept straight he wins the race. He was ahead past the post.”



Apart from Russian Sage he said that anybody who fancied Tan Can also had to like Galant Gagnant.



Galant Gagnant beat Tan Can by 2,25 lengths in the Daily News, although the latter was also doing some eye-catching work late on.

De Kock had his doubts that Galant Gagnant would stay the 2000m of the Daily News but now appears confident that he will stay the 2200m of the July.



“He was kicking on late in the Daily News,” he said.



There was an explanation for Lion’s Blood’s below par run in the Daily News, his first run for the Brown yard, in which he ran 10,15 lengths back.

The yard scoped him after the race and he was found to have had some mucus in his airways.



“He was scoped before being sold and was clear so he must have picked up an infection after that,” said Brown. “But he was not coughing before the race and showed no signs of an infection.”



However, Brown felt that the disappointing Daily News run was more down to the change of environment than anything else.



Lion’s Blood is a very clean winded horse which would usually point to a good lung capacity and if he bounces back to his best he can’t be ignored in the July, especially considering his handy draw of eight.



Desert Links, who won the Grade III Cup Trial over 1 800m at Clairwood ten days ago, is staying in Dennis Drier’s Summerveld yard although Basil Marcus is back and forth from Cape Town to check on his progress.



Marcus said, “Desert Links is a very nice horse who is maturing all the time and the July is the right race at the right time. The three-year-olds are progressive and I think it’s going to be a good, tough race. But we are very happy with our horse going into the race.”



Desert Links has an excellent draw of five and is unbeaten at Greyville in three starts.

I fancy Wendywood , Hunting Tower and Catmandu.

Wendywood really impressed me after her last win and obviously is a star in the making.

Hunting Tower holds a special place for me as my first July winner and I paid a all my debts off with the winnings.

Catmandu the suprise horse who at a good price can place at least.

Looking at the older horses only, although i love Hunting Tower and was on him last year, i think that Silver Mist could surprise and will be running on strongly at end. 66/1, lovely draw, 53kg carrying his lowest weight for a long time, and great running on 4th from worst draw at Greyville 1900 last month.

GC Media release: Snaith Runners 25 JUNE 2008



Justin Snaith, who will have his first runners in the Vodacom Durban July next Saturday, said from Clairwood that he believed a filly would win the big race and would not be surprised if fillies filled the first three places.



The Cape trainer had initially felt that Russian Sage, who drew 19, would be the chief July runner of his pair but said, “He is an immature three-year-old, unlike Dynasty, and to beat older horses from that draw is a huge ask.”



He added, “Had Russian Sage drawn well he would have been the horse to beat. His career has gone so well, so it was just unfortunate, but we will do our best.”



Snaith said that his concern for his horses came ahead of winning first prize and he was worried about Russian Sage.



“If you put him out there on a training track with twenty other horses, half of them would beat him, but at the races he’s different. He’s not the most fluent striding horse but he is a very gutsy individual who always tries his heart out and I am worried about how hard a race he is going to have from that draw,” said Snaith.



The July is a famously tough race, with everybody badly wanting to win and nobody giving an inch, so his concerns are not surprising.



Snaith did not have the same concern for Dancer’s Daughter, whom he said was a “very tough filly,”“the tougher she has it the more she will like it, and I would say the same for her jockey, Kevin Shea. Wherever she had drawn, one to twenty, it would not have worried me,” he said about the grey British-bred filly who is drawn 13.



Snaith added, “To win a Group I over 1800m when pulling at Kenilworth and then winning the Gold Challenge when pulling all the way three wide, she must be a serious racehorse.”



Snaith said that he had no doubt whatsoever that Dancer’s Daughter would stay the 2200m, although he was concerned about her settling.



“I have ridden her myself and other jockeys have said too she gives the feel of being able to stay. Her sire Act One is a stamina influence too,” said Snaith.



He said that both of his horses would have improved throughout the Champions Season.



“They came from breaks straight into Group I’s and have done well in them too. They are both better horses now than they were in their last runs,” he said.



Snaith pointed out that Dancer’s Daughter had never been around a right hand turn which was a bit of a concern, even though he had trained her around a right-hand turn going the wrong way around at Kenilworth before leaving Cape Town.

On the other hand he said that Russian Sage loved Greyville.



Snaith concluded by saying that the July was very open this year and consequently would not be surprised if the three older fillies, Dancer’s Daughter, River Jetez and She’s On Fire filled the first three places.