Preview: Buy and Sell looks the real deal in 2008 July
JACK MILNER
MANY pundits are proclaiming this year’s race the most competitive Durban July in many years. There are always ``spooks’’ in any race if you are looking for them but why should one have to? There are a number of top-class, proven runners in this year’s Vodacom-sponsored race and when looking for the winner, it is silly to look past them.
Photo: Trainer Sean Tarry.
Pocket Power is currently on offer at 33-10 and is a worthy favourite. Mike Bass’s runner is the best horse in the country over this distance and if this was a weight-for-age event, he would start at a very short price.
Although he is set to carry 58kg and is conceding weight to all the other runners, it will take a very good horse to stop him. The runner capable of doing that is undoubtedly Sean Tarry’s Buy and Sell.
He was my selection last year when he was narrowly beaten into second by Hunting Tower. Based on last year’s race, he is not well off at the weights with either Hunting Tower or Pocket Power, who finished fourth, just a head behind Buy and Sell.
However, looking at more recent form, Buy and Sell is well weighted - with Pocket Power in particular.
He finished fourth in the J&B Met, 2.05 lengths behind the son of Jet Master, and Piere Strydom felt that if he had been able to get to a gap before Our Giant, he would have finished a lot closer.
Buy and Sell is 2kg better off with Pocket Power on that run and 2.5kg better off on their Gold Challenge run, in which he finished a neck ahead of Pocket Power.
If Pocket Power was unsuited to the slow pace in that 1600m race at Clairwood, then so was Buy and Sell. Johnny Geroudis tried to keep him up with the front-runners but in a sprint down the straight, he had little hope of pacing it out with the likes of Dancer’s Daughter and Imbongi.
Tarry is the master of understatement and when he says ``Buy and Sell is doing extremely well and I’m sure he will have a say in the finish’’. There is a lot more confidence exuding from that guarded statement than appears on the surface.
His runner has a No 16 draw, but good gate speed combined with the services of Felix Coetzee should enable Buy and Sell to overcome the obstacle.
He has run twice at this track, both over 2200m, for a win and a narrow second. When he won the Daily News over 2200m last year, he was drawn at No 14 and still coasted in by 3.25 lengths from Lucky Find, who set the Dubai tracks alight earlier this year.
Pocket Power must be his biggest threat. He is well drawn, well handicapped and sounder than last year.
``He is doing well, working well and I think he is right back to best this week,’’ said Bass. ``Being as good as he is, he is probably the horse to beat. It depends how much weight he can give away and to whom.
``Whether the bottomweights can beat him, I don’t know. He ran well last year and I think he will run well again this year. I believe he will be in the finish. If he gets his head in front, then good luck.’’
Lightly weighted four-year-olds have a great record in the Durban July and this year River Jetez fits that mould. Many people discount her win in the Astrapak 1900 at this track, but that was her second outing after a layoff and she did well to get up in a slow-run race over a distance short of her best. With just 50.5kg to shoulder, she carries 3kg less than in the Astrapak over 300m shorter and has a superb pilot in Jeff Lloyd, who is seeking his first win in the race.
``I think she’s come on since the Astrapak,’’ said Bass. ``She seems to have improved a little bit here, is stronger and working better so perhaps she’s got a shout. It’s a tough call for her so I just hope she goes pretty close. I’m very happy to have Jeff Lloyd riding her.’’
There are two schools of thought on the three-year-olds. Many believe one of the five will take top honours while others feel they are not good enough.
Perhaps trainer Mike de Kock put it into perspective when talking about his sole runner, Galant Gagnant: ``He has had a good prep but I can’t see him as a July winner. I have had two winners before and they were in a different division to him. He has run with the best of the three-year-olds and I suppose we have to take our chances based on the form. I will be ecstatic if he runs in the first four to be honest.’’
One can throw a blanket over Galant Gagnant, Russian Sage and Tan Can, so if De Kock gives his runner little chance, the other two should struggle as well. Eddington may well have won the Gommagomma Challenge but he is a bit of a mud lark and thrived in those conditions. Lion’s Blood’s last run was shocking and he will need colossal improvement to win.
Wendywood is an unknown. Every bit of commonsense says a filly who had not seen a racetrack six weeks ago and then won two races cannot have a chance in the Durban July. But for any runner to win a Grade 1 race over 2000m at the second time of asking is an extraordinary feat and Tarry would not be fielding her if he felt she had no chance.
``She’s obviously inexperienced and that’s her only negative. Otherwise she is a very, very good filly. She is drawn well (No 1) and her prep has gone extremely well. I know she is good enough and if the inexperience doesn’t catch her out, she is a big runner.’’
Anton Marcus will become the first jockey ride five July winners should Pick Six capture the race. Despite being well weighted, Pick Six failed in a plated race behind St Raphael last time and his conqueror did little to frank the form when unplaced in the Gold Challenge.
Dancer’s Daughter has her fans but even if she does have the necessary stamina for this 2200m (which is questionable on the way she runs), I cannot see her confirming the Gold Challenge form with Pocket Power or Buy and Sell over this distance.
There is also a formline from the Paddock Stakes, where she is 4kg worse off with River Jetez, that indicates she will battle to beat Bass’s filly over 2200m.
One always has to respect Ormond Ferraris and Weichong Marwing but She’s on Fire is close to Eddington form and if one does not rate him with a serious chance, she should also not be a contender.
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