Strange tote movements

which old SA scam Rob?

If they knew the results then Wishing star would certainly not have started at R26.00 a win on the tote.
(I still can't believe this horse went off the odds it did, but anyway)

The overseas people see our betting and someof our form. If they see a horse shorten (Like El Kapitane did) then they have apunt. If they put $100 AUS on the horse, they actually put R450 on a horse!!!!

Its simple mathematics. The weight of their money is killing our dividends.

Phumelela.......Explain whats going on. The punters deserve to know!

$100 Aus is closer to R750, I think. Before making allegations about people 'knowing' the result we need to know how many horses that are paying way under the odds on the Tote are getting beat. We can't deduce anything from winners like El Kapitaine alone. But the whole thing is a cock up at present, not that our lords and masters seem to give a damn!

The simple answer is dont use the tote until you feel comfortable with the co-bungling.

Bookies on exchanges normally offer better odds anyway.

Well how long before the OPEN place bet becomes obsolete? 6-1 can pay R15 a drum on the tote nowadays - If I was a bookmaker I'd be thinking of closing down this option (stop loss or not - big risk on every local race now)

MR HAWAAI MAYBE you just gave phum an idea to try get bookies to close the open bet

Too clever Pirates....... !!! At these crazy odds you could see one or two boys already making plans for a quick countrywide hammering. The relatives in Sydney will be getting calls to punt the 4-10 hottie off the boards(not too much cash needed at R7-50 to the dollar) for a place while Mr and Mrs South Africa quitely back the 2-1 second favourite for places all around the country in the hopes of getting evens a place from the friendly turf accountants!!

Magic,obviously 1 example doesn't make a rule. I have not been following these anomolies but every post seems to be about WINNING dividends reducing and that would seem to be worrying.
Insofar as El Kapitaine,I am pretty sure I know who claimed him with the books(as I am sure you do) and I am happy for him.It is my own choice that I seldom back "on the nose" in MR handicaps.
However I know said fellow is not dumb enough to back places,with "money back" as the best possible result and I dont think he has any Aus or Vietnamese girlfriends.
I think the important issue in this whole debate is that REGARDLESS OF THE EXCHANGE RATE OR THE SIZE OF INCOMING POOLS,DIVIDENDS ONLY CHANGE IF WEIGHT OF MONEY INCOMING IS IN DIFFERENT PROPORTIONS TO LOCAL TOTE BETTING.(you do the maths)
That is why,as MR.H says,if they lumping on the right horses too often you have to question how come they so good.
It has been suggested that they follow the money....if your stats in WINNING FORM under THE MONEY HORSES are correct they'd be bankrupt!

But if you check this thread and any other in regards to this problem, we are only focussing on the WINNERS and what they paid.

i have mentioned before, look at the value it creates for other horses on the tote now, but we don't seem to care about that value, but rather about getting stiffed when backing a winner and it pays less than we expected.

Tommy but you betting BLIND on the tote, which horse is thus the value....Take my bet for today, Procurer, I did not back the horse cause it was paying 1.30 with 1 minute to race time....turned out not to be the correct decision...ended up paying 5.10 the place...Same race swinger with Scarlet Letter pays less than the place on Procurer....

BEFORE co-mingling if it was showing say R2.50 the place you would of probably got 10% either way on the race time.

Greg,

I agree with you, but my point was not as much from a punting perspective but just from a results perspective.

I agree you don't have much control.

Just back the ones you like and hope for the best!

I'm going to call it the "lucky packet comingling effect".

BTW: If Phumelela is listening please don't try and steal the above quote as I have the registered trademark and you can contact me privately if you choose to purchase it!!

You don't need to be a computer whizzkid to figure this out...

"winning tickets', get taken after the race, so the public funding of the the pool can be redistributed.

Just step back for a second, and try and figure out how the South African lotto always has a winner (or has been won, almost twice weekly, without fail)...mathemathically and statistically impossible, with 42 numbers to choose from).

To give you some idea...

A full bet quartet with 4 numbers would cost you R24 (4x3x2x1).
5 numbers would cost R120 (5x4x3x2)
10 numbers ...10x9x8x7 = R5040

Now imagine the number of combinations that would have to be taken for "ALL" combinations to be covered, using the 42 numbers, in order to catch the Lotto.......... +2.5 million combinations X the cost of a single combination.

So, only by having available, the selections/combinations that have been taken, can you determine which combination of numbers will pay the most, or the least.

Technology makes this kind of info available at the click of a button.

So before getting back to racing pools and payouts, lotto machines stop processing tickets at a given time. The draw itself takes place half an hour later....go figure.

Racing bet cut off time, is as soon as the gates open....but bets still get comingled up to a minute after race off....yet, punters have to wait anything up to 10 minutes to see what the payouts are.

Why is it, that some payouts are displayed almost instantaneously, yet in many instances, when payouts are expected to be higher than normal, because favourites run unplaced, that these payouts end up been disappointingly low. These kind of payouts are the ones that take abnormally long to be displayed...it is instances like these, that leads one to believe that payouts are been manipulated.

To the powers that be, not all punters are, bread and butter punters, or kindergarden dropouts.