Turffontein on Monday 25/09/2017

R100 bets:

6) 5 Lee's Pick (win) 5-1

Place Double 2-1:
5) 4 Arpad
6) 5 Lee's Pick

No stress, easy money..................

Frodo wrote: After Saturday, I will just shut up ....

win lose draw i love your summaries

Tarry first timer race 1.
Small bet.

Come on Frodo, It's been tough - all input is valued -

mydada wrote: Race 5
I make this a two horse race between Arpad and A Greater Power.
I might elaborate later but that could prove difficult as my reasoning,well i suppose its facts rather then logic,is based on times

I am interested --- How do you get A Greater Power based on speed?

Here goes
R1 8,10
R2 1
R3. 1,4
R4. 5,2
R5. 3,11,12
R6. 1
R7. 2
R8. 2,7
R9. 3,6

SirPuntalot wrote: Tarry first timer race 1.
Small bet.

I don't have a book for today, just looking at the on-line form guide and the replay of Distant Call's last run.

Regards the Tarry first timer, they would have a fair idea of their entrant's chances considering La Bastide (a Tarry inmate) beat Distant Call, and going away it must be said.

Having said that, i fancy Distant Call having the benefit of the two runs to date. Regards Amanika, for me, the follow through at race time is a good indicator as to it's winning chances especially if she has been putting La Bastide away back home.

Distant Call clearly needed that last run as she looked to become one-paced about 200m from the finish.

Purely on the betting, I have played a treble :-

Distant Call X Huyssteen X New Zealand

Added King's County for a quad.

Not that any card is easy, but it looks to get a lot more difficult after race 4.

Go Green in the 2nd race ran 4th on debut. Jockey appointment is a plus. 4/1 imo best bet on the card.

I would be taking on New Zealand, was a decent first run but too many dangers. Couple of each way plays for what looks a tough days racing...

Mooney @ 9/2
Arpad @ 4/1
Revelation @ 8/1
Barcelona Babe @ 28/1

Just got up now 11.30 . Eyes is still shut....head is busting... lost 6k yesterday...then I see thats it,s not Kimberley.
Need my money back ..
For starters let me go and brush and shower...then see what i can do about racing.
I am thinking Bipot and PA .. that's all.

Adams wrote:

mydada wrote: Race 5
I make this a two horse race between Arpad and A Greater Power.
I might elaborate later but that could prove difficult as my reasoning,well i suppose its facts rather then logic,is based on times

I am interested --- How do you get A Greater Power based on speed?

see you gone for the same two,lets hope they come 1-2

09.22 1450m 86.88 almost two secs faster then Querari Viking
10.08 1450m R5,6,7,8 all over same distance,have a look
11 05 1400m faded badly against a horse he beat convincingly in the maidens but in a fair time in comparision to R8 bold viking roys magic orapa side soe tendre

05 28 coming back to best compare times to R8
07 01 Similar time to Arpad but at a weight disadvantage today but the stable could have a line with Pachuco

And then other runners
Equator too short
Gasoline disappointing
Sputnik Plain not impressed when comparing times
Aquabuoy the bizjet run suggests he will struggle but Pierre gets on and sure he won on Arpad
Huhi likewise when beaten by Querari Viking and Urban Myth
Lisnoble a nagger
Tom Fool could be short and the run to inn a million,not my fav jock
Shortstop beaten by topweight but now carries just 53 could surprise

big weight but has dropped in rating and now in a 66

For the desperate ....

Distant Call worthy favorite imo - evens I think fair value

In the 3rd, I think it lies between King's County and Mooney - Mooney should improve over the 1600 but shorter straight may not be ideal, so King's County although rather short in the betting probably the right one ....

In the 4th, I have a 'feeling' that today will be Kings Creek day ... twice beaten a head and shorthead over this track and trip, nice draw, Gavin up - the 3 fancied 3yr olds (bar Palmieto who I make the danger despite a wide draw) all go round this turn fro the first time, so 6/1 not bad value about KC imo ....

The rest look very tricky handicaps, but in the last I'm trying to recoup some losses from Saturday on Wellspring - I thought went too fast on Saturday and this time Mr Hewitson I think will settle in 2nd or 3rd from a good draw - 10/1 looks fair value imo

Enjoy