Turffontein on Monday 25/09/2017

Race 1: Fly North has progressed nicely since peak effort in April, and is ready to produce another peak effort today, Distant Call will have to find further improvement - should find some of that with 160m less to run.Distant Call had a decent debut and would be the one to come out on top this time with natural improvement. Will have to find about two lengths on that run though to have a chance here. First Timer Beach Baby and Witch of the West dangers along with Amarika.

Race 2: Miyoshi looks to have more scope for improvement than HOKIPOKIDOKEYWOKEY so these two in that order with Huysteen and Red Line Captain dangers.

Race 3: Kings County from Imperial Ounce - it's a lot closer than the 8/10 suggests and an upset not out of the question. In probably his best performance Imperial Ounce couldn't finish in front of swing vote, which is struggling LTO Kings County was restless , lost a length, had to maneuver around a runner and ran around a little. Should be able to win this one.

Race 4: New Zealand, With african dynasty a big danger - salmon Run also in the hunt. Both of these are on my well supported debutant list or losing odds on favourite last time out. I have watched and re-watched the replays. African Dynasty has had plenty of trouble in both it's races. New Zealand just looked more the racehorse though, and will chance this one to get out of the maidens.

Race 5: An Open Race. My Pick - A Greater Power , rested, may be in need, and no sign of any market support. Leads to Arpad and Aquaboy - Arpad is going to need a hot pace to run on from cover with Aquaboy- Styrdom takes the repeat on that one, and is the master tactician. Without pace - we have to start to throw in Equator, Gasoline, Tom Fool if Huhi is being supported. With a slower Pace - Aquaboy will be most suited, with Lisnoble the biggest danger. market not touching Aquaboy either. ---- want to commit to a pick ?


Race 6: Killua Castle cannot be discounted , 2nd run for a top trainer, was strongly bet LTO and just went down after losing 2L - you have to believe he is well. Runalong is going to need a hot pace in a race where no speed is present, other than Revelation which could step up it's game coming back 400m. Happy Pills was my strongest contender if the pace isn't on - trainers comments stating they have gone easy with him, would prove very deceptive if he did win. On class Killua castle can win this, given the trainers comments I am going to discount Happy Pills - count on a slow pace and Give the race to Revelation with Lee's Pick also in contention.

Race 7: Arabian World from Resolute captain , Housten Rocket and Tiger Jet Dangers, Arabian World will be another in search of that Elusive true run pace, and there isn't any speed in the race to deliver that - but has to be respected having 1st run for in form stable, Next best is Resolute Captain and will benefit from a moderate pace. Cannot seperate Arabian World and Resolute Captain - but will choose the stable.

Race 8: Pilgrims Progress - dangers from Barcelona Babe and Sussex. I made Barcelona Babe the biggest danger to Pilgrims Progress but the market has completed rejected that one. This is a weak spot and if Pilgrims Progress shows even slight natural improvement - could be the winner. Summer Wind - preparations interspersed between 2000m and 1800m and is expected to put up a peak effort today -- good enough to beat Pilgrims Progress i cannot say. I was looking for signs of an upset from Sussex, but the market isn't touching it and seems to have a lot to do. If Pilgrims Progress is found in need of the racing , Summer Wind might be in with a shout. Note it's been backed in from 30's to 7.

Race 9: Mission control from Hunting Owl and Brigtnumberten.Here the two pivots with nothing seperating them are Hunting Owl and Dassport, Mission Control a non runner. Tiger's Legacy may have finished ahead of Hunting Owl twice - but HO has had plenty of issues in running, and had to come from the back of the field to just fly up behind tiger's legacy - these are not top quality horses though, and represent the most favourable spot to place your Maiden winner for a handicap debut - Brightnumberten. If he can improve on the maiden win - could win it here, and I forgot to include Wellspring which I liked last time out - the 1000 may be a little sharp for him - but he is the one that Brigtnumberten woould have to beat.

This is my starting point - let's see how the ABC chatter, can help to refine it.

Race 1: Distant Call
Race 2: Huysteen
Race 3: Kings County
Race 4: New Zealand
Race 5: A Greater Power - Arpad - Aquaboy - Lisnoble, or Equator or Tom Fool
Race 6: Revelation Killua Castle Runalong.
Race 7: Arabian World - Resolute Captain
Race 8: Pilgrims' Progress
Race 9: Brigtnumberten

Not a card to get overly enthusiastic about so maybe confine bets to an ew double and an exotic for interest

Race 2
On what has been shown to date this is a very poor maiden race.It is the start of the bipot and there are four unraced runners
2-0 to the insiders

Of the ones that have raced i expect Middle Path to be the first one home but has been gelded and comes of a rest so Go Green possibly the one

Race 3
Looked at the race for a few minutes and i knew bookies would price up the wrong one as favourite.Looks like a pattern with the bookies regarding Mdk runners

Race 4
Salmon Run has decent form especially around the turn and has two seconds a third and a couple of fourths on the inside track.Holds both Kings Creek and Generoso on his last two appearances over the mile and should get a cheque

African Dynasty is from a stable that attracts some quality individuals so expect some improvement from his moderate efforts over shorter in Kzn
The stable's other runner Palmieto interests.Debuted in a 1450m and ran on strongly.Queen Anne was just ahead of her and that is significant in that QA was ahead of Salmon Run in the Thy Kingdom race

New Zealand ran on stoutly to Amoretta in his first appearance over shorter but that winner had run many times and was behind Salmon Run by almost 4L in the race won by Cascapedia (T1400)but ahead in the Strawberry Pavlova race (1160m).Not saying it is significant as NZ was making his debut.Difficult to assess

Palmiet from New Zealand and Salmon Run

Race 5
I make this a two horse race between Arpad and A Greater Power.
I might elaborate later but that could prove difficult as my reasoning,well i suppose its facts rather then logic,is based on times

Woke up first thought was it’s Monday so it’s payday at Flamingo.

Then I saw Turfontein is on today.

Its a holiday today

Dave Scott wrote: Its a holiday today

Jeez, how many holidays do you get there ?

chicken n chips wrote:

Dave Scott wrote: Its a holiday today

Jeez, how many holidays do you get there ?

Just enough to get through the year

Huysteen... Respect the money for this.... New Zealand... Should enjoy the trip..... Lee's Pick.... Huge runner at the weights and my pick for the day. Happy punting all. Took the treble at 28-1.

Hi clanners,
Back from self imposed exile, almost lost wife or atleast got half a wife.
Enough self pitty, lets make lots of bucks, just like we loose them, bit by bit.

After Saturday, I will just shut up ....

7. La Scala (SAF) [2014]
J A Janse Van Vuuren
Silvano (Ger) - La Normandie (Arg)
Last Run: SFGA 16/08/2017 DOWNLOAD THE tabGOLD INFORMATION APP MAIDEN PLATE
NORMANZ (SAF) [2010] - VAR (USA)
8w-12p-38s $165,000
Race: 600-1450m Won: 1000-1200m Wet: 0w-0p-3s
G1 1w-0p-6s, G2 0w-0p-2s, G3 1w-0p-1s, LR 1w-0p-1s

TRIPANDIE (SAF) [2011] - TRIPPI (USA)
4w-2p-11s $29,700
Race: 1000-1600m Won: 1000-1400m Wet: 0w-0p-0s

LE HARVE (SAF) [2013] - VAR (USA)
1w-7p-14s $12,600
Race: 1000-1400m Won: 1000-1000m Wet: 0w-1p-1s
Next Run: SFFA 26/09/2017 TAB TELEBET 0861 000 822 MR 66 HANDICAP