Clairwood - Ag man what a shame..

FC how often have you seen a horse loose any chance of winning due to the cramping on the outside rail @ kenilworth which would fall under the same "freeflowing" or "galloping" track that you refer to..also Greyville has the advantage of a False rail which goes a long way to nullify a bad draw..clairwood and Kenilworth dont..no doubt in my mind that Greyville is a more punter friendly track

Craig Eudey Wrote:

---

> FC surely the fairest track lets the best horses
> win? Therefore if the % of favourites winning at
> Greyville is higher then it is the fairest track
> or am I missing something?


You missing plenty...there are too many variables.

To put matters in proper perspective, the reason Clairwood Park will be no more is twofold :

The Port expansion which will see the Durban harbour extend to the old airport site, hence the need for warehousing, logistics etc.

The course is NOT leased from the city council therefore could be sold to a willing buyer for the RIGHT price.


As for new developements we just wait and see. Could be exciting times ahead now that the Coastal marriage is over, with money in the bank???

FC tell me what I am missing please. What variables should I be looking at? According to the statistics we are given,even a track with every race around the turn has a 5% better winning % of favourites. They are normally the best horse in the race and the more often they win the fairer the track is. :S

bad company Wrote:

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> Unforgetable Clairwood moment
>
> Seeing Horse Chestnut in the flesh, even my std9
> teacher that knew nothing about horseracing heard
> about Horse Chestnut

Hamish Niven took this great pic of the champ on Queens Plate day when he made a guest apperance...what a stunning horse

Craig Eudey Wrote:

---

> FC tell me what I am missing please. What
> variables should I be looking at? According to the
> statistics we are given,even a track with every
> race around the turn has a 5% better winning % of
> favourites. They are normally the best horse in
> the race and the more often they win the fairer
> the track is. :S


I think your reasoning is flawed - unless you take into account where those winning favourites were drawn - what is the % of fav winning at Greyvile from the 'worst' draws as opposed to Greyville and Scotsville - or what is the % of losing favourites at the different venues from the 'best' draws?

Frodo, one of the reasons they are favourite is that people/punters have taken the draw into account before they are made favourite. The same you have said about Greyville can be said for Clairwood and Scottsville. How many favourites have won down the straight at Clairwood drawn 1 or at Scottsville drawn 16? I think that those stastics Bokked gave us take into account all favourites at all the courses,no matter where they a drawn therefore can be used without tryind to bring other factors in.

Case in point is Big Cat Diary which Andrew rides in the 1st race today...the horse has very good and consistant form and yet is 9/2 in the betting purely because he is drawn 1...had he drawn on the outside there can be little doubt he would be a lot shorter..

Frodo Wrote:

---

> Craig Eudey Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > FC tell me what I am missing please. What
> > variables should I be looking at? According to
> the
> > statistics we are given,even a track with every
> > race around the turn has a 5% better winning %
> of
> > favourites. They are normally the best horse in
> > the race and the more often they win the fairer
> > the track is. :S
>
>
> I think your reasoning is flawed - unless you take
> into account where those winning favourites were
> drawn - what is the % of fav winning at Greyvile
> from the 'worst' draws as opposed to Greyville and
> Scotsville - or what is the % of losing favourites
> at the different venues from the 'best' draws?

Yes i can think of many many variables that make Craigs reasoning completely flawed...but i suspect there is no point getting into it!!!

If you do have the variables then tell me. Not too old to learn if by any chance you do have any variables that could make a difference to the statistics that are in black and white in front of us.

Titch Wrote:

---

> Case in point is Big Cat Diary which Andrew rides
> in the 1st race today...the horse has very good
> and consistant form and yet is 9/2 in the betting
> purely because he is drawn 1...had he drawn on the
> outside there can be little doubt he would be a
> lot shorter..


Titch the rest is also a factor. Even with Superman Anton Marcus up this horse was beaten 8 lengths over the C&D from draw 2 of 20.I would not take 8/1 about it today.

This has been an enjoyable thread to read and it is very possible to lie about statistics (they can be presented in a manner which supports a particular point of view) but I would rather have a horse drawn at 16 at Greyville than a horse drawn at 2 at Clairwood.... IF the false rail is at 9 or more metres ( ...

In my opinion Newmarket was the fairest track we had in this country by a far way. Clairwood at the moment is probably the 'fairest' we have around the bend, although the 'new' Scottsville track is not so bad and the draw can be parttly ignored when assessing form.

Craig Eudey Wrote:

---

> If you do have the variables then tell me. Not too
> old to learn if by any chance you do have any
> variables that could make a difference to the
> statistics that are in black and white in front of
> us.

its not about the stats per say...because we have differrent tracks, horses, draws, jocks, weight, conditions and so on you are not comparing like and like...so the stats cannot be taken on face value and definately not to compare the fairness of tracks.