louisg tell the nha they are clue less
- Bob Brogan
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less
11 years 7 months ago
Craig Eudey Wrote:
> Neigh, sorry been out. All I was trying to say was
> what Oscar wrote. If the horse cannot run,it
> cannot run. Full stop. Even MDK the best trainer
> could not get those horses yesterday to run
> better. He has said the same thing to me before
> about how lucky he has been and he is very
> grateful for it. If I could teach some people on
> this forum 1 thing in my life about racing and
> that is what has been written today, it is nearly
> all/mostly about the horses natural ability.
> Trainers, jockeys ect do not have nearly the input
> on a horses results as the horses natural ability.
> Look at many trainers around with 2/3/4 time
> winners as their best horses now and then think
> back and many of them will have trained a
> champion/top horse in their time. Did they
> suddenly forget how to train? NO, they just do not
> have the stock right now.
Henry Cecil proved what you said above to be true,the same is happening to Stoute atm
Dick hearn won derby`s and the following year couldnt win maidens...
> Neigh, sorry been out. All I was trying to say was
> what Oscar wrote. If the horse cannot run,it
> cannot run. Full stop. Even MDK the best trainer
> could not get those horses yesterday to run
> better. He has said the same thing to me before
> about how lucky he has been and he is very
> grateful for it. If I could teach some people on
> this forum 1 thing in my life about racing and
> that is what has been written today, it is nearly
> all/mostly about the horses natural ability.
> Trainers, jockeys ect do not have nearly the input
> on a horses results as the horses natural ability.
> Look at many trainers around with 2/3/4 time
> winners as their best horses now and then think
> back and many of them will have trained a
> champion/top horse in their time. Did they
> suddenly forget how to train? NO, they just do not
> have the stock right now.
Henry Cecil proved what you said above to be true,the same is happening to Stoute atm
Dick hearn won derby`s and the following year couldnt win maidens...
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- soodum
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less
11 years 7 months ago
The big spending owners in racing put their money with the trainers
With proven results, theirs no charity in choosing a trainer
With proven results, theirs no charity in choosing a trainer
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- easy
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less
11 years 7 months ago
Oh dear,
If a horse cannot run to a rating of 147 (frankel) but it can run to a rating of 64 why do some trainers fail to get that horse to perform with consistence?
Why in a race with 14 kakly rated horses some okes still run last....
If a horse cannot run to a rating of 147 (frankel) but it can run to a rating of 64 why do some trainers fail to get that horse to perform with consistence?
Why in a race with 14 kakly rated horses some okes still run last....
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- easy
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less
11 years 7 months ago
At least you consistent craig others are not and very difficult to evaluate and select for bets....
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- neigh
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less
11 years 7 months ago
The line horse for the handicapper is not same horse in every centre (impossible). Therefore we have an immediate difference between centre's. This is also the case with all races and their line horses chosen. The differences and variables are mind boggling, infinite plus !! How difficult must it be for the handicapper to get it right ? Impossible with all the variables, but IMO they don't do such a bad job, they need help though to be more accurate. Hence my suggestion. The more input to limit the variables the more accurate the ratings. Hope this gives more insight into my opinion. It would also be great to get guys like Frodo involved in helping the handicapper, he is very knowledgeable with respect to the MR system and racing in general. Every bit of info/input helps to make the system more accurate. Is the handicapper open to it ? (I don't know). Would it work ? (I don't know) Is it fair now ? (No)
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- Tipster
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less
11 years 7 months ago
neigh Wrote:
> The line horse for the handicapper is not same
> horse in every centre (impossible). Therefore we
> have an immediate difference between centre's.
> This is also the case with all races and their
> line horses chosen. The differences and variables
> are mind boggling, infinite plus !! How difficult
> must it be for the handicapper to get it right ?
> Impossible with all the variables, but IMO they
> don't do such a bad job, they need help though to
> be more accurate. Hence my suggestion. The more
> input to limit the variables the more accurate the
> ratings. Hope this gives more insight into my
> opinion. It would also be great to get guys like
> Frodo involved in helping the handicapper, he is
> very knowledgeable with respect to the MR system
> and racing in general. Every bit of info/input
> helps to make the system more accurate. Is the
> handicapper open to it ? (I don't know). Would it
> work ? (I don't know) Is it fair now ? (No)
Ok, maybe the answer is to do away with line horses and handicap the race on it's apparent merit. It can't be right that the severity of a horse's punishment depends on which line horse is chosen, as if often the case.
> The line horse for the handicapper is not same
> horse in every centre (impossible). Therefore we
> have an immediate difference between centre's.
> This is also the case with all races and their
> line horses chosen. The differences and variables
> are mind boggling, infinite plus !! How difficult
> must it be for the handicapper to get it right ?
> Impossible with all the variables, but IMO they
> don't do such a bad job, they need help though to
> be more accurate. Hence my suggestion. The more
> input to limit the variables the more accurate the
> ratings. Hope this gives more insight into my
> opinion. It would also be great to get guys like
> Frodo involved in helping the handicapper, he is
> very knowledgeable with respect to the MR system
> and racing in general. Every bit of info/input
> helps to make the system more accurate. Is the
> handicapper open to it ? (I don't know). Would it
> work ? (I don't know) Is it fair now ? (No)
Ok, maybe the answer is to do away with line horses and handicap the race on it's apparent merit. It can't be right that the severity of a horse's punishment depends on which line horse is chosen, as if often the case.
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- bloodshot
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less
11 years 7 months ago
Who are you guys? Easy just take it easy ! Neigh don't you know how to,say no? Oscar you right a golf 1300 will never go faster than a BMW M3 I don't care who the F drives it or tunes it. You okes make me tired on a Sunday night im sticking to Vodka .
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- rob faux
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less
11 years 7 months ago
Tipster Wrote:
> neigh Wrote:
>
>
> > The line horse for the handicapper is not same
> > horse in every centre (impossible). Therefore
> we
> > have an immediate difference between centre's.
> > This is also the case with all races and their
> > line horses chosen. The differences and
> variables
> > are mind boggling, infinite plus !! How
> difficult
> > must it be for the handicapper to get it right
> ?
> > Impossible with all the variables, but IMO they
> > don't do such a bad job, they need help though
> to
> > be more accurate. Hence my suggestion. The more
> > input to limit the variables the more accurate
> th
> > ratings. Hope this gives more insight into my
> > opinion. It would also be great to get guys
> like
> > Frodo involved in helping the handicapper, he
> is
> > very knowledgeable with respect to the MR
> system
> > and racing in general. Every bit of info/input
> > helps to make the system more accurate. Is the
> > handicapper open to it ? (I don't know). Would
> it
> > work ? (I don't know) Is it fair now ? (No)
>
> Ok, maybe the answer is to do away with line
> horses and handicap the race on it's apparent
> merit. It can't be right that the severity of a
> horse's punishment depends on which line horse is
> chosen, as if often the case.
Please explain "apparent" rating-I think it may be what I often do but not sure of your meaning!
> neigh Wrote:
>
>
> > The line horse for the handicapper is not same
> > horse in every centre (impossible). Therefore
> we
> > have an immediate difference between centre's.
> > This is also the case with all races and their
> > line horses chosen. The differences and
> variables
> > are mind boggling, infinite plus !! How
> difficult
> > must it be for the handicapper to get it right
> ?
> > Impossible with all the variables, but IMO they
> > don't do such a bad job, they need help though
> to
> > be more accurate. Hence my suggestion. The more
> > input to limit the variables the more accurate
> th
> > ratings. Hope this gives more insight into my
> > opinion. It would also be great to get guys
> like
> > Frodo involved in helping the handicapper, he
> is
> > very knowledgeable with respect to the MR
> system
> > and racing in general. Every bit of info/input
> > helps to make the system more accurate. Is the
> > handicapper open to it ? (I don't know). Would
> it
> > work ? (I don't know) Is it fair now ? (No)
>
> Ok, maybe the answer is to do away with line
> horses and handicap the race on it's apparent
> merit. It can't be right that the severity of a
> horse's punishment depends on which line horse is
> chosen, as if often the case.
Please explain "apparent" rating-I think it may be what I often do but not sure of your meaning!
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- Frodo
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less
11 years 7 months ago
neigh Wrote:
> The line horse for the handicapper is not same
> horse in every centre (impossible). Therefore we
> have an immediate difference between centre's.
> This is also the case with all races and their
> line horses chosen. The differences and variables
> are mind boggling, infinite plus !! How difficult
> must it be for the handicapper to get it right ?
> Impossible with all the variables, but IMO they
> don't do such a bad job, they need help though to
> be more accurate. Hence my suggestion. The more
> input to limit the variables the more accurate the
> ratings. Hope this gives more insight into my
> opinion. It would also be great to get guys like
> Frodo involved in helping the handicapper, he is
> very knowledgeable with respect to the MR system
> and racing in general. Every bit of info/input
> helps to make the system more accurate. Is the
> handicapper open to it ? (I don't know). Would it
> work ? (I don't know) Is it fair now ? (No)
Thanks for the compliment, but there is no way that I know more about MR than Roger Smith (for one) - I could certainly still learn a thing or two from him - he is however bound by a few ridiculous rules - take the Potala Palace race - the 4th horse got a penalty of 11 points (off the top of my head), while the 5th horse got no penalty even though only running a shd behind the 4th horse - all because the rules state that only placed horses in this type of race (I think it was a Pinnacle Plate) will get their MR adjusted - this clearly is not right and there needs to be a re-think on this 'rule' (and that's only one example)
Also (again taking the Potala Palace race as an example), there will be a difference of opinion between handicappers on occasion - this does not mean that one is 'better' than the others - I certainly rated the race differently than the 'officials' - and it will be interesting to see if Moon of Rangoon (for one) can justify his new increased rating in the future.
> The line horse for the handicapper is not same
> horse in every centre (impossible). Therefore we
> have an immediate difference between centre's.
> This is also the case with all races and their
> line horses chosen. The differences and variables
> are mind boggling, infinite plus !! How difficult
> must it be for the handicapper to get it right ?
> Impossible with all the variables, but IMO they
> don't do such a bad job, they need help though to
> be more accurate. Hence my suggestion. The more
> input to limit the variables the more accurate the
> ratings. Hope this gives more insight into my
> opinion. It would also be great to get guys like
> Frodo involved in helping the handicapper, he is
> very knowledgeable with respect to the MR system
> and racing in general. Every bit of info/input
> helps to make the system more accurate. Is the
> handicapper open to it ? (I don't know). Would it
> work ? (I don't know) Is it fair now ? (No)
Thanks for the compliment, but there is no way that I know more about MR than Roger Smith (for one) - I could certainly still learn a thing or two from him - he is however bound by a few ridiculous rules - take the Potala Palace race - the 4th horse got a penalty of 11 points (off the top of my head), while the 5th horse got no penalty even though only running a shd behind the 4th horse - all because the rules state that only placed horses in this type of race (I think it was a Pinnacle Plate) will get their MR adjusted - this clearly is not right and there needs to be a re-think on this 'rule' (and that's only one example)
Also (again taking the Potala Palace race as an example), there will be a difference of opinion between handicappers on occasion - this does not mean that one is 'better' than the others - I certainly rated the race differently than the 'officials' - and it will be interesting to see if Moon of Rangoon (for one) can justify his new increased rating in the future.
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- RACING GURU
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less
11 years 7 months ago
whilst i am fairly knowledgable about most aspects in racing..handicapping is not right at the top...so excuse my ignorance when i say...the MR system...is all hogwash...and very much one persons perception over another...and....answer me this question....why are so many conditions and graduations and novices plate not won by the horse with the highest MR...if they had the system that they can call workable...then most of these conditional races should be won and even maiden races...be won with horse with the highest MR....IT WOULD BE VERY INTERESTING TO HAVE SOMEONE BRING UP...the results of these set condition races and see what corrolation there is against THE MERIT RATINGS...i would hazard to say...that it wouldnt justify the merit rating system....for me there are just too many variables to quantify to then say that this horse is a 80...or a 76...or a 90....just too many variables..and add that different courses run differently...different conditions on the day...different tactics adopted by jockeys...the list is endless...and then u try get individuals or a panel to quantify all that...its russian roulette i tell u
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- louisg
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less
11 years 7 months ago
Ziets, thanks for taking the time to look at the programme - maybe after I write the following, then you will see the Trainers side and the complexity -
1) This horse has had one race in his life. At his next start, he broke through the stalls, scratched. On this one, we had no warning that he would react like this. Because of how well behaved he was first time out, the starter put him in first. We have had to re school him and he now goes in later, with a head hold.
2)This horse won on sand, over 1000m on debut, his only run. Why would I look for another surface or further?
3)In your earlier posts on this thread, you slate Trainers for messing up horses careers by rushing them. Yet, in your programme of races, you include Feature races....
Also, Ziets, please note that in a plate race (not maiden plates, but progress or pinnacle plates), there is a maximum penalty of 6 points for winning and zero for places etc, no matter what the weights or if the horse runs above rating. But, it is also very important to note that the form of that race is not ignored. It is considered as part ofvthe overall formline of the horse, by the handicapper.
I am pleased that Flash started this thread, because so much debate and opinion makes for extremely interesting reading. But, the bottom line surely remains that we must not surely condone a system that costs Owners (and Breeders) money, just because they found a good horse and we now singlemindedly look to stop that horse from winning again, or too many races, as we "bring it back" by adding weight through rating.
As I mentioned earlier in this thread, the system right now, has produced more multiple winners rated below 70 than those rated above 70. Much more.....about 3 to 1. And what does this say to us all?
It simply says that a weaker horse wins more races than a stronger horse. And that is just not logical, surely. And I agree that we cannot go back to the race figure system, but we must concede that it was a system that allowed the better horses to win their fair share of races. So, as much as logic comes into play on this one, so too does fairness.
Finally, much has been said about inconsistent horses and I agree. But, surely, never in our history has the time been more rife to give horses runs by running when not ready etc. Yes, it will take time to drop the ratings, but the time is less, with good planning... when you spend as much time planning losing, as you plan winning.
And that is not what racing is supposed to be and it is not what this yard is all about. But, once you are in the bottom lot and your horse comes well, you can win many races, whilst the really good sorts battle it out against other really good sorts, running their hearts out, consistently and going up in the ratings without winning !
As for an insinuation made that I, for example, could lie to the handicapper etc, there is nothing further from the truth. Also, where Neigh was right, was when he/she mentioned that Trainers shouldnt be calling the handicapper.
Right now, I am going to complete my objection against the allocation of 88 to Negev as her sand rating. Have a look and tell me why I am doing this...... on what grounds will I object ?
1) This horse has had one race in his life. At his next start, he broke through the stalls, scratched. On this one, we had no warning that he would react like this. Because of how well behaved he was first time out, the starter put him in first. We have had to re school him and he now goes in later, with a head hold.
2)This horse won on sand, over 1000m on debut, his only run. Why would I look for another surface or further?
3)In your earlier posts on this thread, you slate Trainers for messing up horses careers by rushing them. Yet, in your programme of races, you include Feature races....
Also, Ziets, please note that in a plate race (not maiden plates, but progress or pinnacle plates), there is a maximum penalty of 6 points for winning and zero for places etc, no matter what the weights or if the horse runs above rating. But, it is also very important to note that the form of that race is not ignored. It is considered as part ofvthe overall formline of the horse, by the handicapper.
I am pleased that Flash started this thread, because so much debate and opinion makes for extremely interesting reading. But, the bottom line surely remains that we must not surely condone a system that costs Owners (and Breeders) money, just because they found a good horse and we now singlemindedly look to stop that horse from winning again, or too many races, as we "bring it back" by adding weight through rating.
As I mentioned earlier in this thread, the system right now, has produced more multiple winners rated below 70 than those rated above 70. Much more.....about 3 to 1. And what does this say to us all?
It simply says that a weaker horse wins more races than a stronger horse. And that is just not logical, surely. And I agree that we cannot go back to the race figure system, but we must concede that it was a system that allowed the better horses to win their fair share of races. So, as much as logic comes into play on this one, so too does fairness.
Finally, much has been said about inconsistent horses and I agree. But, surely, never in our history has the time been more rife to give horses runs by running when not ready etc. Yes, it will take time to drop the ratings, but the time is less, with good planning... when you spend as much time planning losing, as you plan winning.
And that is not what racing is supposed to be and it is not what this yard is all about. But, once you are in the bottom lot and your horse comes well, you can win many races, whilst the really good sorts battle it out against other really good sorts, running their hearts out, consistently and going up in the ratings without winning !
As for an insinuation made that I, for example, could lie to the handicapper etc, there is nothing further from the truth. Also, where Neigh was right, was when he/she mentioned that Trainers shouldnt be calling the handicapper.
Right now, I am going to complete my objection against the allocation of 88 to Negev as her sand rating. Have a look and tell me why I am doing this...... on what grounds will I object ?
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- rob faux
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Re: Re: louisg tell the nha they are clue less
11 years 7 months ago
RACING GURU Wrote:
> whilst i am fairly knowledgable about most aspects
> in racing..handicapping is not right at the
> top...so excuse my ignorance when i say...the MR
> system...is all hogwash...and very much one
> persons perception over another...and....answer me
> this question....why are so many conditions and
> graduations and novices plate not won by the horse
> with the highest MR...if they had the system that
> they can call workable...then most of these
> conditional races should be won and even maiden
> races...be won with horse with the highest
> MR....IT WOULD BE VERY INTERESTING TO HAVE SOMEONE
> BRING UP...the results of these set condition
> races and see what corrolation there is against
> THE MERIT RATINGS...i would hazard to say...that
> it wouldnt justify the merit rating system....for
> me there are just too many variables to quantify
> to then say that this horse is a 80...or a 76...or
> a 90....just too many variables..and add that
> different courses run differently...different
> conditions on the day...different tactics adopted
> by jockeys...the list is endless...and then u try
> get individuals or a panel to quantify all
> that...its russian roulette i tell u
This is worthy of a thread all on its own IMO.
There has been a lot of discontent over the results of plate type races but IMO is merely a reflection of how inconsistent the majority of our runners are.
In the Handicap races ,every horse has the same chance theoretically so no result is clearly an upset............consistency has to be measured by tracking a series of runs by a horse..........one handicap race can be misleading!
> whilst i am fairly knowledgable about most aspects
> in racing..handicapping is not right at the
> top...so excuse my ignorance when i say...the MR
> system...is all hogwash...and very much one
> persons perception over another...and....answer me
> this question....why are so many conditions and
> graduations and novices plate not won by the horse
> with the highest MR...if they had the system that
> they can call workable...then most of these
> conditional races should be won and even maiden
> races...be won with horse with the highest
> MR....IT WOULD BE VERY INTERESTING TO HAVE SOMEONE
> BRING UP...the results of these set condition
> races and see what corrolation there is against
> THE MERIT RATINGS...i would hazard to say...that
> it wouldnt justify the merit rating system....for
> me there are just too many variables to quantify
> to then say that this horse is a 80...or a 76...or
> a 90....just too many variables..and add that
> different courses run differently...different
> conditions on the day...different tactics adopted
> by jockeys...the list is endless...and then u try
> get individuals or a panel to quantify all
> that...its russian roulette i tell u
This is worthy of a thread all on its own IMO.
There has been a lot of discontent over the results of plate type races but IMO is merely a reflection of how inconsistent the majority of our runners are.
In the Handicap races ,every horse has the same chance theoretically so no result is clearly an upset............consistency has to be measured by tracking a series of runs by a horse..........one handicap race can be misleading!
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